TomahawkTake’s Mid-Season Top 30 Atlanta Braves Prospects – the Ranked List

It was tough to sort these guys out, but we came up with a consensus list among us of the most promising 30 Atlanta Braves prospects for 2016.

I won’t reiterate everything said from Friday when we rolled out the Honorable Mentions list.  If you’d like to see that (which includes the scope of this ranking and how we scored it), then click over here to that prior post.

Otherwise… let’s dig right in:  our 2016 Top 30  Atlanta Braves of the future!

One reminder note:  this took a few days to put together, so active stats will have changed a bit here and there, especially for the position players.  Don’t beat me up over that.

Prospect Rankings 21-30

30. AKEEL MORRIS

• 23 years old, 6-1/195, RHP
• International signee of the Mets in 2010; from St. Thomas, Virgin Islands
• Acquired in the second Kelly Johnson trade with the Mets; Mets fans were not pleased.
• Has 1 game of major league experience – didn’t end well, but has electric stuff (~12 K/9 on average); needs to cut down on the walks (~6 per 9).
• AA/Mississippi
• 2.78 ERA in 23 innings over 18 appearances.

Note:  yes, he was actually on this list before we found out that he’d been promoted!  Congrats to Akeel for getting back to the majors.  You think that the Mets are gritting their collective teeth that we got him for Kelly Johnson while they tried and failed to get Jim Johnson?

TIE 28-29. LUCAS HERBERT

Fun fact: there are now 3 notable Braves prospects named Luke or Lucas.

• 19 years old, 6-1/195, Catcher
• Round 2 draft pick (#54 overall) of the Braves, shortly after having taken classmate/batterymate Kolby Allard
• A/Rome
• Struggling to hit in his first full-season league: .184/.230/.285/.515 with 6 HR in 334 PA over 84 games. That should improve.
• Known for field leadership and defense as well.
• Full scouting report

TIE 28-29. BRETT CUMBERLAND

• 21 years old, somewhere between 5-11/205 and 6-0/188, Catcher
• Round 2 draft pick in 2016 draft out of Cal/Berkeley
• PAC-12 player of the year
• A/Danville
• .231/.321/.385/.706 thus far with 3 homers, 9 doubles.
• Projects to be a ‘hit first’ catcher with average defensive abilities.
• With both of these catchers (Cumberland and Herbert), our writers were a bit divided on their ceilings, with rankings ranging from about 22nd to 30+

27. LUKE DYKSTRA

• 20 years old (21 in November), 6-1/195, Middle Infielder
• 7th round draft pick of the Braves in 2014 (Westlake HS, CA)
• A/Rome
• Lenny Dykstra made a pretty solid career with limited power (though he hit 19 HR in one season) while hitting in the high-200’s, stealing a bunch of bases and generally just getting on base a lot. His son is dong exactly that.
• .300/.335/.385/.720 at all minor league stops so far with 17 steals in 183 games. K-rate is excellent at under 10%, though walk rate is limiting his OBP.
• Defense seems solid at well. Now hitting .304/.332 at Rome. Should go to Carolina next Spring.

26. RICARDO SANCHEZ

• 19 years old, 5-11/170, LHP
• International signee of the Angels; acquired via the trade for Kyle Kubitza in early 2015.
• Fangraphs scouting grades highlight his curve with an overall 50 rating
• Patience will be the key here, though improvement is being seen
• A/Rome
• 97 innings, 5.20 ERA, 1.44 WHIP. 82 K/44 walks. That represents a consistent reduction in walk rates since 2014. Location and command will be important.
• Many (if not most) prospect watchers have Sanchez ranked higher; as a group, we are still a bit pessimistic on the command, though he still has plenty of time to sort that out. Meanwhile, others with high upside and less risk have filled in spots above him now.

Curious thing happened on Friday afternoon (8/12):  Kyle Kubitza became a Brave again… claimed on waivers from Texas.  So the Angels have nothing left from this deal that gave us Ricardo Sanchez (they had sold Kubitza to Taxes in June).

Kubitza, a third baseman by trade, is still a ‘rookie’ with 19 major league games of experience, but will not crack our lists here.

25. BRAXTON DAVIDSON

• 20 years old, 6-2/230, OF/DH
• First round pick in 2014 (#32 overall) via TC Roberson HS, Asheville, NC
• A+/Carolina
• A bit of an enigma still, but we have to continue to remind ourselves that he’s still just barely 20 years old.
• Ben has documented a major cause for issues this season (see scouting link below); it’s something he’s finally working out of at the season winds down.
• The power in his hitting is there; the question will be whether the hit-for-average tool will come as well. Very patient at the plate with high OBP, but also with some scary strikeout rates (spiked 34% this season, partly for reasons Ben described).
• .226/.342/.379/.721 at Carolina w/10 HR, 23 other XBH; numbers have generally been consistent across levels
• Full scouting report

24. A.J. MINTER

• Nearly 23 years old, 6-0/205, Southpaw Closer
• 2nd round pick of the Braves in 2015; Texas A&M
• Here is where our individual relief pitcher biases bubbled to the surface. Minter had ranking votes among our crew everywhere from 11th to ‘out of the Top 30’. This is, again, largely because of the disparate value that we place on relief pitchers as part of their limited role. In the case of Minter, it’s also a factor of how close to Billy Wagner or Craig Kimbrel a voter might believe his ceiling lies. Personally, I tried to balance those views in my own votes and put Minter at 16th… this position is probably a decent compromise between all viewpoints.
• All that said, this kid is tearing up the minors. He’s already been at 3 different levels this season and hasn’t really been slowed down yet.
• AA/Mississippi
• Across all levels: 0.32 ERA in 24 appearances. 28 innings. 11 hits, 6 BB, Thirty-Nine strikeouts. 0.607 WHIP. Averaging nearly 2K per inning at AA… with only 1 walk.
• I’m kinda drooling at the possibility of RH Shae Simmons and LH Minter at the back end of the 2017 Atlanta Braves’ bullpen.

UPDATE:  MLBPipeline added Minter as the 30th-best prospect for the Braves on Friday.  We do think a bit better of him than that.

23. CHRIS ELLIS

• close to 24 years old, 6-4/190, RHP
• Round 3 selection of the Angels in 2014 from Hoover, AL (just south of Birmingham) via Ole Miss
• Acquired along with Sean Newcomb in the Andrelton Simmons trade
• AAA/Gwinnett
• Was promoted from AA Mississippi after strong first half (2.75 ERA in 79 innings).
• Has had difficultly adjusting to AAA: generally has been either very good or very bad (earned runs in 10 AAA outings: 0, 6, 1, 2, 8, 0, 2, 1, 5, 5). Has not gotten into the 6th inning with Gwinnett as yet; managed 7 innings twice while at Pearl.
• 6.64 ERA, 1.97 WHIP, BAA .288 in ~41 innings at AAA; again, much better at AA. Another season at AAA would get him deeper into games and add consistency.

22. MAX POVSE

• Nearly 23 years old, 6-8/185, RHP
• Round 3 draft pick of the Braves in 2014 (102 overall) out of UNC/Greensboro
• Name is pronounced ‘Posey’
• Promoted from Carolina to Mississippi a month ago; stats are actually better now
• AA/Mississippi
• 91 K, 17 BB at Carolina; 26/5 at AA with a 2.65 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP in 37 innings. Has remarkably consistent outing durations between 5 and 7 full innings throughout the year (exceptions: one 3.2 inning stint; one nearly 8 innings).
• Another “where does he fit on the list?” guy.  Some of us ranked Povse as high as 10th in this list (myself included), while a couple didn’t have him in the top 30. Certainly, he’s an under-the-radar name, but if he can maintain this kind of performance for the rest of the year, then AAA is almost a given with a shot at the Atlanta rotation not too far behind that.

21. ROBERT WHALEN

• 22½ years old, 6-2/220, RHP.
• Mets draftee from Round 12 in 2012. Born in Pennsylvania, but plucked from Haines City HS (FL).
• Major league debut this month, nearly skipping AAA.
• Atlanta Braves
• 101 innings at AA: 2.49 ERA with lots of ground-outs; keeps ball in the park
• 3 starts at AAA: 1.93 ERA with very consistent K/BB numbers 8.3/3.3 ratio
• Walks burned him during debut start (though he got the Win); was better at Milwaukee on Monday
• Likely will be optioned back to Gwinnett once Teheran or Gant come back, but he’s earned future shots… definitely on everyone’s radars now.

Next: 11 Through 20

Prospect Rankings 1-10

10. DUSTIN PETERSON

• Turns 22 years old in less than a month; 6-2/210, corner OF.
• Round 2 draft pick of San Diego in 2013 from Gilbert HS (AZ).
• Acquired in the Justin Upton deal that also brought Jace Peterson, Mallex Smith, and Max Fried to the Braves.  Heck of a trade, that was.
• Younger brother of D.J. Peterson (1st rounder of Seattle, same draft).
• AA/Mississippi
• In the midst of a breakout year, Dustin appears on the verge of getting past that ‘younger brother’ thing.
• 2016:  111 games, 439 AB.  .296/.356/.446/.802.  46 XBH out of 130 overall, which leads (or nearly leads, depending on when you read this) all Braves’ farmhands.
• Depending on a number of circumstances, could have a shot at Atlanta come next Spring.
• Still some mixed thoughts on Peterson from our writers as he got votes everywhere from 3rd to 21st best prospect.  Most voted him in the 7-9 range.

9. MAX FRIED

• Age 22, 6-4/185, LHP.
• 1st Round draft pick of the Padres in 2012 from Harvard-Westlake HS in North Hollywood, CA.
• As mentioned above, part of the Justin Upton trade; was rehabbing a Tommy John surgery at the time.  Now pitching again after a lengthy layoff.
• A/Rome
• Fangraphs likes his fastball and curve (plus pitches) with changeup right behind both.  55 total future grade, which is equivalent to most of Atlanta’s starters on this list.
• 2016:  82 innings, 3.50 ERA, 84 K, 39 BB, 1.29 WHIP, .233 BAA in 16 starts, 17 apps.  Pretty decent after sitting out for around 21 months.

8. IAN ANDERSON

• 18 years young, 6-3/170, RHP.
• 3rd overall pick in the 2016 draft from Shenendehowa HS, Clifton Park NY.
• Rated as #1 on the Braves’ draft board for this year.
• R/Danville
• Like most of the other pitching draftees, Ian was given a chance to get his feet wet in the GCL, then bumped to Danville.
• GCL:  5 starts totaling 18 innings.  14 hits, 2 unearned runs, 0.00 ERA, 4 BB, 18 K, 1.00 WHIP, .222 BAA.
• Danville:  1 start, 3.2 innings.  1 earned run that scored after he was done; 2 BB, 2K, 2 hits, .167 BAA, 1.09 WHIP, 2.45 ERA.
• BaseballAmerica has an in-depth game report on Anderson this week (the Danville start).  They like him, too.

7 . MIKE SOROKA

• 19 years old less than 2 weeks ago; 6-4/195, RHP.
• The second 1st Round pick of the Braves in 2015 out of Bishop Carroll HS, Calgary, Alberta, Canada.
• Yeah, Brian Bridges probably gets first class upgrades on every flight – and this is one reason why.
• A/Rome
• 123 innings in his first full-season pro league… and the numbers are impressive… only 1 outing under 4 innings for the year… almost always goes 5-6.
• In 21 starts (22 appearances) 3.07 ERA, 102K, 30BB, 1.18 WHIP, .251 BAA.  I’ll take that 3.4K/BB ratio.

6. TOUKI TOUSSAINT

• Age 20, 6-3/185 RHP.
• Full name:  Dany Gilbert Kiti Toussaint (I’ll give that a ’70’).  Born in Florida.
• 1st Round draft pick of the Diamondbacks in 2014 from Coral Springs Christian Academy (FL).
• Acquired along with Bronson Arroyo‘s contract in the trade that also sent Phil Gosselin to Arizona.
• A/Rome
• Rome is loaded with pitching… and Touki has what’s probably the nastiest curve of the bunch.  Consistency and command will be his watch-words, though this time through Rome is showing movement in the right direction.
• We do have a couple of voters who seem concerned that the command will not fully come around… and that’s fair, because often it doesn’t happen.  So this ranking seems a fair positioning.
• 115 innings, 4.24 ERA in 21 starts (23 G).  104K/60BB, .218 BAA, 1.32 WHIP.

5. KEVIN MAITAN

• 16 years old, 6-1/180 (est.).  SS -> 3B
• The 2016 #1 ranked International signee; Venezuela.
• Has not been added to a roster; will likely be held out until next season.
• No stats yet as a result.
• Our ranking is strictly a guess based on the scouting reports.  Our voters had him everywhere from the 1st overall prospect (that was me) to #20.  Certainly the Braves believe in him – he got at least $4 million to sign (a record amount for his country and for the Braves).
• Braves’ International scouting director has publicly comp’d Maitan to both Chipper Jones and Bryce Harper (radio interview), having watched him for at least 18 months leading up to his signing.  Others have suggested Miguel Cabrera.  If that turns out to be close, then yes – he will be the #1 prospect.
• We should get our first indications next Summer if he follows the same path as Pache, Cruz and others… a quick bump to the US mainland.

4. SEAN NEWCOMB

• 23 years old, 6-5/255, LHP.
• 1st Round pick of the Angels in 2014, Hartford Univ., CT
• Acquired by Braves with Chris Ellis in the Andrelton Simmons trade
• AA/Mississippi
• The knock on Newcomb has always been command – harness that and he has top-of-the-rotation stuff, scouts say.  That’s starting to happen.
• A report of his latest start is here… noting ‘third straight dominant start’… 25K in 17-2/3 innings, allowing 2 runs in those appearances.
• 4.04 ERA (going down) in 118 innings.  63 walks, 126K, .231 BAA, 1.36 WHIP.

A note about the pitching at AA Mississippi – despite having lost Robert Whalen to the majors.  Here’s the scores of the games during their 8-game win streak (through Friday 12th):  3-2, 10-2, 3-2, 5-1, 3-2, 2-1, 2-0, 2-1.  8 games giving up 2 runs or less.

3. KOLBY ALLARD

• As I type this (Saturday, August 13), Kolby is starting to celebrate his 19th birthday.  6-1/180
• 1st Round pick of the Braves in 2015, 14th overall.
• Been treated with utmost caution as he recovered from a back ailment and surgery.  Now pitching regularly.
• A/Rome
• Tore through Danville: in 27 innings, 1.32 ERA, 33K, 5 walks. Five.
• Now has 35 innings at Rome (7 starts).  4.84 ERA with 36K, 13BB, 1.27 WHIP, .248 BAA.
• Most of that ERA damage was caused from his 1st 2 Rome starts to open his season in June.  Went to Danville, now back in Ga.  One hiccup there since.
• August 3rd start featured an 11K, 1BB, 3 hits performance into the 7th inning.

In our voting, Newcomb and Allard were among the most consistently ranked among our writers… that is, until these guys…

TIE: 1/2 – OZZIE ALBIES AND DANSBY SWANSON

I admit it:  I’m not sure how Mississippi ever loses a game these days… and lately, they haven’t.  This pair of players constitutes one big reason.  In the previously noted story on Sean Newcomb, he said this about having given up a weak infield hit:

“I was just trying to attack the zone. If [Riddle] hits a ground ball, it’s OK,” … “He just hit it to the six-hole. I wasn’t too worried about it.” Newcomb admitted he’s seen [Dansby] Swanson (Atlanta’s No. 1 prospect) and second baseman Ozzie Albies (No. 2) make enough spectacular plays that he was probably due to give up an infield hit. “It’s awesome having him and Ozzie, too,” he said. “They always get anything hit out there. It’s definitely good having people like Dansby playing behind me.”

Albies and Swanson probably should be tied in our rankings… they seem to be tied together in their development progress as well.  As it appears that Atlanta has settled with their positions, their defense has been every bit as important as their offensive contributions… maybe more so.

SWANSON:

• 22 years old, 6-1/190; SS.
• 1st round pick – 1st overall – of the Diamondbacks in 2015.  Hails from Kennesaw, GA via Vanderbilt University.
• Acquired by trade in the infamous Shelby Miller Heist of 2015, along with Ender Inciarte and Aaron Blair.
• AA/Mississippi
• Hit .333/.441/.526/.967 at Carolina in 21 games.
• .262/.345/.407/.753 at Mississippi in 82 games with 13 doubles, 5 triples, 8 HR, 35 BB, and 69 K in 324 AB.

ALBIES:

• 19 years old, 5-9 (maybe)/160; 2B.
• International signee of Braves from Curacao on July 2, 2013.  That place sound familiar?
• AA/Mississippi
• Has almost always been the youngest player at his level.  70 grade speed with excellent defense.
• Had 56 games at AAA Gwinnett, hitting .248/307/.351/.659 with 222 AB, 11 doubles, 3 triples, and 2 HR.
• Better when paired with his soulmate:  in 60 AA games (including those prior to his AAA stint), .326/.400/.444/.844 with 14 doubles, 4 triples, 2 HR.

A roster crunch and the Southern League playoffs will likely keep these two away from Atlanta through the end of the year.  However, that probably won’t be the case come next Spring.

Next: The Full List With Links and Resouces

The TomahawkTake Top Prospects for Mid-2016

Here is our entire list, with ranks from MLBPipeline’s Top 30 supplied in parentheses for comparison purposes.  MLB included John Gant (22) and Manny Banuelos (23), who we omitted for eligibility reasons.

More from Tomahawk Take

• Atlanta Braves Sign Joshua Fuentes to Minor League Deal
• Braves News: New Year’s Eve comes with several questions about the 2023 Braves
• Braves News: How the Braves got their name, mailbag, more
• Atlanta Braves Mailbag: New Year’s Edition
• Braves News: Atlanta makes a pair of trades, prospect debuts, more

1a  Ozzie Albies (2)
1b  Dansby Swanson (1)
3 Kolby Allard (4)
4 Sean Newcomb (3)
5 Kevin Maitan (8)
6 Touki Toussaint (10)
7 Mike Soroka (6)
8 Ian Anderson (5)
9 Max Fried (11)
10 Dustin Peterson (18)
11 Austin Riley (13)
12 Joey Wentz (7)
13 Lucas Sims (14)
14 Travis Demeritte (9)
15 Ronald Acuna (17)
16 Kyle Muller (12)
17 Cristian Pache  (unranked)
18 Patrick Weigel  (29)
19 Rio Ruiz  (15)
20 Derian Cruz  (unranked)
21 Robert Whalen (21)
22 Max Povse (20)
23 Chris Ellis (16)
24 A.J. Minter (30)
25 Braxton Davidson (25)
26 Ricardo Sanchez (26)
27 Luke Dykstra (unranked)
28 Brett Cumberland (unranked)
29 Lucas Herbert (27)
30 Akeel Morris (28)
31 Jacob Webb
32 Zachary Bird (24)
33 Abrahan Gutierrez
34 Isranel Wilson
35 Alejandro Salazar
36 Juan Yepez
37 Jason Hursh
38 Anfernee Seymour (19)
39 Matt Custred
40 Tyler Neslony
41 Connor Lien
42 Jonathan Morales
43 Matt Lipka
44 Ramon Osuna
45 Ray-Patrick Didder
46 Caleb Dirks
47 Mauricio Cabrera
48 Dilmer Mejia
49 Yunior Severino
50 Drew Harrington
51 Alan Rangel

Resources From Our Minor League Watcher Ben Chase:

• Prospect Database (Pitchers)
• Prospect Database (Hitters)
• Mid-season reviews: His Top 1-10
• Mid-season reviews: His Top 11-20
• Mid-season reviews: His Top 21-30
• Mid-season reviews: His Top 31-40
• Mid-season reviews: His Top 41-50
• Mid-season reviews: His Extras

Next: Mallex Done for 2016?

We will stop there for now – hopefully, this can serve as a useful resource when you next hear of one of these standouts doing something great on their way to the big club.