Atlanta Braves Midseason Top 50 Prospects: Top Ten

Atlanta Braves Midseason Top 50 Prospects

A Quick Primer
Welcome to Tomahawk Take’s midseason look at the Atlanta Braves top 50 prospects! This list is compiled by Benjamin Chase, writer for Tomahawk Take, through hours (upon hours upon hours upon…well, you get it) of game watching on milb.tv, conversations with scouts around the game, conversations with front office folks, and lots and lots of reading of others’ reviews on Braves prospects. This is Ben’s baby, so if you have an issue with any of the placement of the players or any such things, he’s the guy to send your hate mail to, not Fred or Jeff or Alan or any of the other talented TT writers (they have their own reasons for you to send your messages).

About the Process
I take all that info mentioned above and try to put together a list of guys based on a number of things. I will openly admit that proximity to the major leagues adds a significant bonus to a player’s value in my eyes. I’m also admittedly biased against a guy who has converted to the bullpen full-time, requiring a pretty impressive performance out of the bullpen to rank a guy very highly.

This list will not contain any players who were drafted in June or signed starting July 2nd. While I recognize that guys like Ian Anderson, Joey Wentz, Kyle Muller, and Kevin Maitan will be important pieces of the minor league system going forward, there is much that is yet to be learned about each player acquired this summer before I can accurately rank them within the system, so to have this out to you at this point before having a chance to gather that information from the sources I mentioned above, I’ll keep the midseason list free of both types and then add them in in the offseason Top 100 list (yes, that’s happening again, so start getting excited already!).

General Rules/Requests
I am more than willing to discuss alternative views on a player, but please be respectful of all posters as they post and especially the front office and team in general. This isn’t a place to air grievances about who should have been picked #3 in June or whether a certain prospect should have been part of the Cameron Maybin trade or some other discussion. We can talk all about the players mentioned, and then when I release the top 10 on Friday, I’ll also release a list of a number of other prospects that fans should be aware of that just didn’t make my list for the midseason.

With all that said, let’s take a look at today’s group – The Top Ten!

Next: 10, 9

10. Kolby Allard, LHP, Danville

Allard was the Braves first pick in the 2015 draft, and without back issues his senior year of high school, he likely would have gone much earlier in the draft. The 6’1 lefty from California came out and showed excellent ability in a very short stint for the GCL team last season, throwing 6 innings without allowing a run, giving up only one hit and striking out 12. That sort of performance had not just Braves fans drooling, but also the national prospect evaluators, as he was ranked in the top 100 prospects in all of baseball by Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, and MLB.com.

Allard began this season in extended spring training after an offseason back procedure so he could build up his strength in his mechanics. Allard was called up from extended spring to Rome in early June, and he didn’t fare so well, going just 12 innings over 3 starts with an 8.25 ERA and a 1.67 WHIP. He did have a solid 4/12 BB/K ratio in that time, but he simply got pounded on balls in the strike zone. He was “aiming” the ball quite a bit, and it showed as he didn’t let his mechanics finish naturally, cutting off his motion in order to try to get the ball in the zone, which actually hurt the natural movement that he gets on his pitches.

Allard went back to extended spring for a week and when Danville opened their season, he was part of their rotation, and it looked like a much better fit for him as he let his low-90s fastball work with its excellent late life in the zone. He was even touching 97 in one Danville start. His curve, considered the best in his draft class, was snapping off much better and getting better depth, and with the better finish on his motion, Allard’s change was playing up much better as well. That all added up to 21 1/3 innings of 1.69 ERA ball so far with a 0.84 WHIP and a 4/26 BB/K ratio.

Allard is certainly one who has the natural talent to move up this list a lot, and I’m sure having him at 10 will be slightly controversial, but I also believe that back issues are the second-worst thing a pitcher could have go wrong with them – second only to shoulder issues. Allard is still young and could build on his frame to move past this issue, but I could absolutely see why the team may move him very slowly and deliberately along the way with the history of guys with back issues. His talent screams at you off the mound, however, so fans will likely be pushing for Allard to move up levels much before the team makes that decision.

9. Robert Whalen, RHP, AA Mississippi

Whalen was part of the 2015 annual Kelly Johnson-related fleecing of the Mets that also brought over John Gant to the team. The Mets originally drafted Whalen out of high school in the 12th round of the 2012 draft, and he had worked his way up their system well, performing at near-elite levels at every stop of the minor leagues before 2015. However, once traded to the Braves, he made only 3 starts before having season ending knee surgery.

Whalen works with a four-pitch mix, featuring a fastball that sits in the low 90s and can touch 95-96 with excellent sink and wiggle to the pitch. He also has an excellent curve and slider along with a change that has shown up this year as an above average pitch. Whalen’s curve was rated as one of the best in the Mets system by Baseball America, but Whalen stated that they were likely referring to his slider as they both have very similar movement, but interestingly, his slider gets more depth than his hard curve.

Coming into this season, I had the opportunity to chat with Whalen on Twitter a few times about his knee, specifically around the time my scouting report came out on him. He talked about how he really had not been healthy for well over a full season with the knee issues, and that he was very excited to show what he could do when fully healthy this spring. I made a mental note that Whalen could be one to watch improving over the season as he got more stability on his knee.

Sure enough, Whalen came out with a 4.05 ERA and 1.35 ERA in April, and in watching him, you could see some hesitation still in trusting the knee fully. However, something clicked in his second start in May, and he’s been on a tear ever since, getting the call to AAA Gwinnett this week as a reward for easily being the best performing pitcher in the entire minor league system this whole season. He’s put up a 2.49 ERA and 1.22 WHIP on the season over 101 1/3 innings with a 37/94 BB/K ratio. The sinker is working very well, as he’s allowed only 4 home runs this year, the lowest rate of home runs allowed in his career.

Whalen’s ceiling is possibly not as high as a guy like Allard or some others who he’s above in this list, but he’s also shown his talent level plenty high to get to this point, and I could definitely see him working in the front half of a rotation as a 2/3 sort of starter, and that has an exceptional amount of value. I will say that he’s already at a career high in innings pitched, so it wouldn’t surprise me if the team does cut off his season at some point or even use him out of the bullpen to save his innings, but he’s shown enough this year already to establish himself as a gem in a system full of them!

Next: 8, 7

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6. Max Fried, LHP, Low-A Rome

The headlining prospect in the Justin Upton deal, Fried was known to miss all of the 2015 season after Tommy John surgery early in the 2014 season, and the Braves were more than willing to allow him that recovery time. Fried’s high school teammate Lucas Giolito had come back from his own TJS and become one of the elite prospects in the game, and the Braves were banking on a similar recovery for Fried.

As with most TJS survivors, the last thing to return is command of pitches. Fried had back his incredible 12-6 curveball and velocity that ticks up to 96 early on in the season, but he was struggling with control as well as command. He began to work much better around the plate in May, but his issue was that he was missing his spot in the zone, leading to his balls getting hit hard.

Fried has been working with the Braves’ low-in-the-zone, lower-velocity-more-movement philosophy throughout the season, but it has really taken hold since the beginning of June. He has posted a 1.13 ERA over that time with an exceptional 1.06 WHIP and an 11/41 BB/K ratio over 32 innings in that time span. Overall on the season, he’s posted a 3.59 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP with a 39/81 BB/K over 80 1/3 innings.

In his first season coming off of surgery, I’d be surprised if the Braves let Fried throw more than perhaps another 40 innings or so, so he may be getting close to the end of his season. I also wouldn’t be surprised if, due to him being 22, they moved him to high-A Carolina to finish out the season in their rotation. He’s certainly shown that he’s got his feel on his pitches back in the last month, and if he can finish like that, he’ll be at the top of the Braves pitching list in the offseason rankings.

5. Ronald Acuna, OF, Low-A Rome

Arguably the player with the most buzz in the entire system coming out of the 2015 season, Acuna was on his way to leaping into the national consciousness when he hurt his thumb in early May and hasn’t returned to the field. With no timetable for his return, right now, we’re just hoping to see him get back to the field this season to get some more at bats in to prepare him for 2017.

Acuna was signed out of Venezuela in the lauded 2014 international free agent class, which could go down as one of the better IFA classes in recent memory the way things are going thus far for the Braves. He made his debut stateside with the GCL team, and he hit and ran well enough to warrant a late-year promotion to Danville, where he actually hit even better. Overall on the season, he had a .269/.380/.438 line with 4 home runs, 4 triples, and 16 stolen bases in only 237 plate appearances. On top of that, Acuna was receiving incredible scouting reports. People were raving about his natural power, his blazing speed, and his mature approach for a 17 year old.

Over the offseason, we heard more great conversation about Acuna, and during spring, I had one scout tell me that Acuna is the most exciting teenager in the Atlanta system since Andruw Jones. That’s incredible praise for a young outfielder, so I pried a little further, and I asked the scout to compare and contrast the two. He told me that on the “five tools” (hit, power, run, field, arm), he’d rank Acuna as having a better hit tool and a better run tool, but that what has commonly become a sixth tool for offensive players, batting eye/approach, was also a big win for Acuna. I had to clarify, so I asked, and he agreed that he was stating that based on the six tools modern scouts evaluate hitters on, Acuna was split with Andruw 3-3.

Of course, this was after I’d submitted my top 100 list already, so I simply took note and thought that man, if there was indication of this going forward, we could be looking at an elite player. Then Acuna came out and simply hit .300/.389/.391 with 12 steals and a 15/20 BB/K ratio with Rome this season. As an 18 year old. He also played some of the most instinctive center field since, well, Andruw! Needless to say, even with having no plate appearances since May, Acuna was hard to put this low on my list. I had him #3 for a long time before finally settling at #5.

Acuna’s future profile isn’t really that of Andruw, however. He’s not going to be a guy to hit 50 home runs in any season for the Braves. He does have very solid power that I think would have come out more as he adapted to the pitching at Rome, and I could absolutely see a guy similar to

‘s 2015 at his absolute peak offensively, with double-digit home run power and 30+ steal speed being very probable along with excellent strike zone judgement.

Next: 4, 3

4. Touki Toussaint, RHP, Low-A Rome

There is very possibly not a single arm in the entire Atlanta system with more dynamic stuff than Touki Toussaint. However, in 2015, there were not many pitchers who made you want to punch a kitten more frequently than Touki, either.

Acquired by the Braves from the Diamondbacks in a 2015 trade, Toussaint was the Diamondbacks first round selection in the 2014 draft. Well known for his upper-90s velocity and his incredible curve ball, Toussaint had mixed results in 2014 across two rookie league levels, totaling an 8.58 ERA, but also striking out 32 hitters over 28 1/3 innings.

With the Braves and Arizona last season, he pitched in low-A ball, and combined, he continued to show inconsistency, with a 4.83 ERA over 87 2/3 innings, striking out 67, but also allowing 10 home runs and walking 48. The Braves worked with Touki throughout the offseason on some mechanical adjustments to help him be more consistent in his delivery and also be able to access his big stuff at the same time.

He came into the 2016 season with a new delivery and working on the approach of taking off a tick or two of velocity to allow his excellent fastball movement to work well low in the zone. The Braves knew that sort of adjustment would take some time, and to their credit, they let him keep working on it, in spite of a 9.19 April ERA. However, his last start in May showed a different approach for Touki. In spite of not having great results, the buy in on the attacking the zone approach was there, as he struck out only one hitter over 5 innings. He was pinched hard in the lower part of the zone, and then his bullpen allowed in runs for him to make the game look worse, but he did exactly what the Braves had been asking him to do.

Including that May 31st start, Touki has gone 8 appearances since, throwing 45 innings, with a 2.60 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP. He’s still giving up some walks, but part of that is getting his dynamic curve to sit in the low zone consistently, which is something that he’ll have time to develop.

In two starts I recently watched, Toussaint sat in the low-90s through most of the game with fastball movement that darted toward the toes of right-handed hitters and away from lefties late in the pitch’s zone. He came back with eye-level-changing heat multiple times in the upper 90s, however, and hitters staring low in the zone were blown away by the pitch. Add in that ridiculous curve and much better ability to hide his change in his rebuilt mechanics, and Touki is looking like the ace that his stuff has always said he could be.

3. Sean Newcomb, LHP, AA Mississippi

Newcomb was the primary piece acquired in the Andrelton Simmons in the trade, and while his talent is immense, he’ll always be tagged in many minds as the guy who the team traded away their incredible fielding shortstop for. Not much was as pleasant on the eyes, even on a bad team as watching Andrelton play the position.

Newcomb was the Angels first round selection in 2014 out of the University of Hartford and the massive (6’5, 255 pound) lefty was a guy who grew up in the northeast and had very little traction on his impressive left arm. He pitched 14 1/3 innings across rookie ball and A-ball in his draft season, and he ended up a top 70-ranked player in both Baseball America and MLB.com’s overall prospects.

The Angels split him between low-A and high-A in 2015, and he threw 136 innings, with a 2.38 ERA and 1.27 WHIP composite with a 76/168 BB/K ratio. That impressive performance landed him as a top-35 prospect in all three major prospect ranking systems – Baseball America (#24), MLB.com (#21), and Baseball Prospectus (#32). His mid-90s fastball and sharp breaking pitches were notable, though his big size was still very raw as he struggled to find his delivery at times, which led to the high walk rate that he frequently saw.

Newcomb’s start on July 13th may epitomize what it has been to watch Newcomb in 2016. He threw 5 innings on that night, and in four of those innings, he faced a total of 15 hitters, allowing one single and two walks, striking out 8. He worked the zone well, and he simply had guys flailing at pitches. The issue is that he also threw that one other inning. In that one inning, Newcomb hit a batter and allowed a triple short of the cycle, giving up a single, double, and a home run. His control was solid, hitting the low zone with the ball, but his command wavered, and he struggled with his desire to overpower through those tough moments rather than stick to the plan, and he hung a ball to Mobile hitter Kevin Cron that he tattooed to deep left-center field.

If you were to ask me of the guys on this top 50 list, which guys have “ace” stuff, the #1 guy on that list would absolutely be Newcomb. His stuff when he’s on is heavy, moving, and so sharp that it’s just tough even to get wood on it, let alone hit it hard, but he’s his own worst enemy. I’d not be surprised to see Newcomb get innings at AAA this year, and with the innings he’s built up already, he could pitch deep into the season, which makes a September call up a solid option for him.

Next: 2, 1

2. Ozzie Albies, 2B/SS, AA Mississippi

I really could combine my top two, and honestly, I’m not terribly tied to the order of the two. I’m going to go with Swanson ahead of Albies almost purely due to Albies moving to the “less intense” defensive position now. That’s it. Otherwise, if I were putting future value on both players, I think they’d have the same value. I do value floor quite a bit, so when I did my overall prospect rankings for Call To The Pen, I had Dansby in the top 10 and Ozzie within the top 25, but really, that’s again splitting hairs.

Ozzie is yet another Braves find from the tiny island of Curacao off the coast of Venezuela, where the Braves found Andruw Jones and where Andrelton Simmons was from as well. They’ve had tremendous luck finding players from the country, and Albies is simply the most recent.

Coming into spring, I’d have pegged Albies as the guy destined for Carolina after he suffered an injury that ended his season with Rome last year. Instead, the Braves jumped him to Mississippi based on his tremendous performance throughout spring, and he has hit nearly .400 in his time in Mississippi thus far. While Mississippi’s park is nearly perfectly constructed for Albies’ skill set, that’s still an impressive performance any way you slice it up.

Albies did find the sledding more difficult when he got to Gwinnett (at 19!), hitting .248/.307/.351, but he flipped a switch when Erick Aybar came to Gwinnett on a rehab assignment. He was moved to 2B from SS, and his bat took off, and it hasn’t stopped ever since.

Ozzie’s shown the power that I was talking about over the offseason, squaring up 20 doubles and 4 home runs already this season with 7 triples as well. He struggled early on with his base stealing success, but even that has picked up since his move to 2B. His profile is definitely at the top of the order, and the comparisons of Albies to

in skillset are starting to look more and more adept.

1. Dansby Swanson, SS, AA Mississippi

So, the other half of the future middle infield was the major acquisition of the offseason. Many were pleased by the rebuild that the Braves have done, but the absolute jewel of all the trades has been acquiring Swanson (along with Aaron Blair AND Ender Inciarte) for Shelby Miller (recently demoted to AAA) from Arizona. Swanson had just been picked #1 overall in the draft in 2015, so that he was able to be acquired at all was a major coup for the front office.

Swanson was assigned to Carolina to start the season, and he found that level to be below him certainly, putting up a .333/.441/.526 line there before a promotion just before the first month of the season ended. With Mississippi, Swanson has found things a bit more difficult, and he’s played through some significant slumps to a .265/.348/.403 line with 5 home runs, 4 triples, and 10 doubles. Interestingly enough, while the Mississippi park may be perfectly suited for Albies, it’s nearly the worst set up possible for the approach Dansby has at the plate, where he likes to work pitchers, fouling off pitches until he gets one he can work with. Mississippi’s expansive foul territory means that Dansby frequently finds his working of pitchers ending up in the gloves of fielders rather than the seats, and that’s hurt his overall stat line.

Swanson drew comparisons out of college to Derek Jeter, and that’s not a wild comparison. He is the proverbial quarterback of the diamond. I’m constantly enthralled when watching Mississippi to see him chatting up a pitcher from his shortstop position or jogging in the ball to his pitcher after a tough-luck hit given up. He’s also the guy who’s calling out directives to his teammates as various hitters come to the plate, showing his study of the game.

Swanson, like Jeter, may never be the best defender at the position, but his maturity at shortstop leads to very few mental mistakes at the position, and he’s very smooth in the field and at the plate. He’s also very good in front of the camera, which will allow him to be that “face of the franchise” type for the Braves going forward as well. For all those reasons, I decided to barely edge him over Albies, though, I do think the Braves are going to be in very good hands with the “Ozzby” DP combo for the future.

Next: Braves Minor League Database