Atlanta Braves Midseason Top 50 Prospects: 30-21
Atlanta Braves Midseason Top 50 Prospects
A Quick Primer
Welcome to Tomahawk Take’s midseason look at the Atlanta Braves top 50 prospects! This list is compiled by Benjamin Chase, writer for Tomahawk Take, through hours (upon hours upon hours upon…well, you get it) of game watching on milb.tv, conversations with scouts around the game, conversations with front office folks, and lots and lots of reading of others’ reviews on Braves prospects. This is Ben’s baby, so if you have an issue with any of the placement of the players or any such things, he’s the guy to send your hate mail to, not Fred or Jeff or Alan or any of the other talented TT writers (they have their own reasons for you to send your messages).
About the Process
I take all that info mentioned above and try to put together a list of guys based on a number of things. I will openly admit that proximity to the major leagues adds a significant bonus to a player’s value in my eyes. I’m also admittedly biased against a guy who has converted to the bullpen full-time, requiring a pretty impressive performance out of the bullpen to rank a guy very highly.
This list will not contain any players who were drafted in June or signed starting July 2nd. While I recognize that guys like Ian Anderson, Joey Wentz, Kyle Muller, and Kevin Maitan will be important pieces of the minor league system going forward, there is much that is yet to be learned about each player acquired this summer before I can accurately rank them within the system, so to have this out to you at this point before having a chance to gather that information from the sources I mentioned above, I’ll keep the midseason list free of both types and then add them in in the offseason Top 100 list (yes, that’s happening again, so start getting excited already!).
General Rules/Requests
I am more than willing to discuss alternative views on a player, but please be respectful of all posters as they post and especially the front office and team in general. This isn’t a place to air grievances about who should have been picked #3 in June or whether a certain prospect should have been part of the Cameron Maybin trade or some other discussion. We can talk all about the players mentioned, and then when I release the top 10 on Friday, I’ll also release a list of a number of other prospects that fans should be aware of that just didn’t make my list for the midseason.
With all that said, let’s take a look at today’s group – #’s 30-21!
Next: 30, 29
30. Leudys Baez, OF, Low-A Rome
Baez was originally signed as a shortstop by the Washington Nationals out of the Dominican, but there were issues with his contract, and after his contract was cancelled, he ended up in limbo for some time before the Braves took a shot at the raw 18 year old before 2015.
Last season, Baez showed that to be a wise investment as he came out with Danville and hit .311/.331/.473 with 4 home runs and 5 stolen bases. He followed that up with a weak showing at Rome, but after multiple years rarely playing competitive baseball, the struggles at Rome were near expected. The biggest worry was the 6/61 BB/K ratio.
This season, Baez was assigned back to Rome. He’s not hit as well as his burst in Rome, but he’s definitely shown well, hitting .261/.329/.319 with a home run and 3 steals. He has nearly quadrupled his walk rate this season, though that’s only to an average solid level, let alone any sort of impressive level.
Baez has a big bat and an even bigger arm. He can make the throw from anywhere in the outfield ot home plate without a cut-off man. He’a built very well, showing his listed 6′, 160 pounds to be drastically off-base. Baez is more in the range of 185 pounds, having filled out significantly. He is 20 years old now, but the raw tools are absolutely incredible in Baez. He’s in a very complicated mix of toolsy outfielders in Rome’s outfield right now that he’ll have to perform to continue to get playing time.
29. A.J. Minter, LHP, AA Mississippi
Alex Jordan Minter was drafted by the Braves in the 2nd round of the 2015 draft out of Texas A&M, and the smallish (6′, 205) lefty was viewed immediately as an impressive steal at the spot the Braves got him. He’s only shown that evaluation to be light in his 2016 performance.
Minter was a guy who was widely considered to be a top-15 to top-20 talent in the 2015 draft before he underwent Tommy John surgery in March of his draft seasons, meaning that whomever drafted him wouldn’t have him for the entire summer after he was drafted. That didn’t scare away the Braves, even though Minter had also suffered thoracic outlet syndrome as a freshman, so many teams did stay away, believing the arm could have major issues going forward.
The Braves were in on Minter as a possibility for them at pick #14 and certainly at pick #28 before he was injured, so they had scouted him extensively, and the Braves were highly impressed with his make up. Of course, his 94-97 MPH fastball with a very good slider and a developing breaking ball had their scouts talking as well.
Minter has come out this year and showed that he is everything the Braves had hoped for and more. He didn’t allow his first earned run until the weekend before the All-Star break, and even that run was due to a catcher missing a third strike on a guy that Minter had struck out and then that player coming around to score. Overall, he’s posted a 5/21 BB/K ratio over 18 2/3 innings with a 0.59 WHIP.
Minter’s already reached AA Mississippi, and it’s quite likely you will see him in Atlanta early in 2017 if he doesn’t make an appearance in 2016. His incredible stuff from the left side could actually project as the rare lefty closer, if the Braves chose to use him in that role.
Next: 28, 27
28. Juan Yepez, 1B, Low-A Rome
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The jewel of the 2014 international free agent class, Yepez has been a guy that Braves fans that follow prospects have known about since his signing and loaded with expectations. As with any prospect, many of those expectations are fair, but a great prospect shows signs of meeting many of them.
Last seasons, at 17 years old, the Venezuelan-born Yepez made his debut in the Braves system with the GCL team. After 31 games, it became clear that he was not being challenged, and he was promoted to Danville, where he still put up a .291 batting average and slugged .466. Overall, he hit .299/.364/.458 over 228 plate appearance between the two levels with 22 extra base hits, and he even stole 3 bases.
Yepez is a developed young man, having come into this season with a very mature physical stature at only 18. However, one of the notable things for many who saw him last season was that Yepez had trimmed away some of the “baby fat” of his first year in the system. He struggled with his batting eye to some degree with Danville last season, and some of that carried forward this year to Rome. He did increase his walk rate from his stint at Danville to an acceptable 7.4%, but his strikeout rate is over 27%.
Yepez was injured early in May, after he had much improved defense, and had even been tried some back at his original position, third base. With his high-end contact skills and solid power potential, if he can handle third, that would make him even more valuable.
27. Jonathan Morales, C, Low-A Rome
Morales was selected in the 25th round last season out of Miami-Dade College. The Puerto Rico native was not drafted out of high school, but after spending a season in community college, the Braves had seen enough to take a chance on Morales.
Morales only came out and his .300/.377/.511 with GCL last season with 7 home runs. He showed tremendous power, but even more impressive, he showed excellent strike zone judgement, and while his lateral movement behind the plate needed work, he showed excellent blocking ability and a strong arm that could allow him to stay behind the plate going forward.
Morales came out early this season and put up an incredible April, hitting .295 in April, though there were signs that he was struggling even with the excellent batting average. He had a 3/12 BB/K ratio in April over 84 plate appearances, something out of line with his reputation and with his performance in GCL in 2015. He’s slumped ever since, with a .268 BA in May and two months now at .150 since. That all said, Morales has been getting his act together with his walk rate increasing ever since, and his strikeout reducing ever since April as well.
The big concern with Morales was whether he’d be able to stay behind the plate. However, defense has been where Morales has shown all season long. he had 11 passed balls in 34 games in 2015. This season, he has 2 in 38 games, and he’s 1 runner short of throwing out exactly 50% of runners attempting to steal on him. He’s exhibited exceptional skills not just in his throwing but also in his lateral movement. The Braves have noted the work that Morales put into his defense, and in order to get him into the lineup, they’ve begun working with Morales at third base in July.
If Morales can start to beat back the BABIP gods to some degree, I think you’d see him to around a .250-.260/.330/.375-.400 line, and with the improvement on his defense, I think the Braves would be overjoyed with that level of offensive progress from Morales.
Next: 26, 25
26. Justin Ellison, OF, Low-A Rome
The Braves went to a common location to nab Ellison in the 12th round last summer, Western Oklahoma State College, the same school that Andrelton Simmons was drafted from. Ellison showed extremely raw tools at two stops with a .247/.313/.416 line along with 5 home runs and 6 steals. Ellison also flashed exceptional defense in the outfield, especially left field, as he moved across the Braves two rookie levels.
Ellison came out this year and he’s been a mainstay in the Rome outfield all season, really playing well in both corners, albeit perhaps a bit over aggressive. He’s found himself collecting a few errors on balls that he got to that many guys wouldn’t even have a chance on, so if you look just at the errors, you’ll be misinformed on just how good Ellison has been defensively in the outfield.
Ellison’s bat has been no slouch either. He has hit .236/.293/.360, but he’s hit 3 home runs and 5 triples along with 13 stolen bases on the season. Ellison shows how raw his tools still are frequently in his two-strike approach, and that will need work as he progresses up the system, but he has reduced his strikeout rate from 2015, which shows progress certainly. He has the type of raw tools to be a
Ron Gantsort of player in the outfield for the Braves if he can simply put it together with his contact.
25. Joseph Odom, C, AA Mississippi
Odom came into the season as possibly the 4th or 5th rated catcher on most lists. However, one thing that most scouts will tell you is that catchers develop at a different rate than any other position. Something happened to Odom after he struggled in the Arizona Fall League last year, as he came in this season defensively focused and excellent, and within the first month, his bat took off.
By the time he was promoted to Mississippi in late June, Odom had put up a .292/.349/.500 line with Carolina. The power he’s always had was joined by a solid contact rate, and his swing showed it. Odom’s approach was more smooth in his plate appearances, as he shortened his swing late in plate appearances to focus on contact, whereas he would have stuck with his power-driven swing all through an at-bat previously.
Odom’s been put into an odd rotation in Mississippi that is weird, to say the least, but he certainly deserves an opportunity to play and show that his early season was no fluke. He’s always been tremendous moving laterally behind the plate, even if he doesn’t have a great arm vs. base-stealers. While that is still an issue, I just don’t see why he’s not garnering more playing time.
Next: 24, 23
24. Chris Ellis, RHP, AAA Gwinnett Braves
I’m probably going to get some boos and hisses here, but first, pitcher wins mean about as much as shoe size in determining prospect value (and probably even less), and second, keep reading, and you’ll get why Ellis is here.
My offseason scouting report of Ellis after he was part of the Simmons trade with Sean Newcomb and Erick Aybar got some rough reviews simply because I was rough on Ellis. When I watched him, he was extremely inconsistent, and I just didn’t see any way he was going to succeed as a starter based on the games I saw from his time in the Angels system.
The Braves started him in AA Mississippi this year, and while he did put up an 8-2 record and 2.75 ERA with a 1.13 WHIP, going further into the numbers would show you that Ellis was getting EXTREMELY lucky on BABIP, and his strikeout rate had taken a step backward on top of that. He showed the same inconsistency in his motion as he had in 2015 video I’d seen, but he was getting the right bounces to have solid numbers.
The Braves moved him up to AAA and the numbers caught up with him. The hits started to fall, and the increased patience of a AAA hitter really worked over Ellis. He’s put up a 6.05 ERA and 1.97 WHIP in his AAA time, and while I don’t believe that’s his true talent either, I do think the contrast between that and his AA numbers are a great example of the inconsistency that the Braves will have with Ellis going forward.
I’d be pleasantly surprised if Ellis makes the major leagues as a starter. I think he’s a reliever or bust as I review the video this year and last year. However, he has a solid fastball with a very good slider that could work well as a reliever.
23. Isranel Wilson, OF, Danville
Wilson was signed as part of the 2014 international free agent class. He was not the most heralded of that class, certainly, but when he came to the GCL in 2015 at age 17, he showed tremendous power skills. Wilson went .222/.349/.479 on the season.
Wilson had some tremendous power for sure, hitting 10 home runs, but he only hit home runs last season, as he only had 6 total doubles and triples combined to go with those 10 home runs. He also had an incredibly high strikeout rate, whiffing at an incredible 32.4%. The scouting reports I got were that his swing was tremendously long and hitched, but he had the ability to put a lot of power into a swing when he made contact. I did get very solid reviews on his outfield defense, however, especially in right field.
Wilson was moved up to Danville this year, and he’s not hit well to start the year, only posting a .178 batting average in the first 13 games. He’s also still putting up that same 32% strikeout rate. The Braves will want to see some big progress in that before they will be comfortable rushing him too quickly, but the raw power is absolutely real, and if he can just make contact, that power will play well.
Next: 22, 21
22. Randy Ventura, OF, GCL
It seemed like every update I did last season on the minor league system, I was mentioning another handful of Ventura stolen bases. Ventura was signed as part of the 2014 international free agent class, though he was able to be signed in January 2015 after the Braves acquired additional slot money.
He was sent to the DSL in 2015, and in 58 games, he stole 55 bases, totaling a .329/.421/.394 line, exhibiting solid patience along with the contact skills and blazing speed. The major negative I heard in his 2015 performance was his defense, and it showed up in the raw stat line as he committed 11 errors. Ventura did show good instincts on balls, but he had bad judgement on when to dive and even where to throw.
Those raw skills were brought state side in 2016, and interestingly one of the positive things I heard mentioned about his defense – his raw arm strength – possibly predicated a move to right field. His speed and his arm have been an incredible combination in right field, and of course, that speed is still there on the base paths as he’s stolen 7 bases in 14 games.
Ventura may not have much for over-the-wall power, and his frame (5’9, 165 pounds) doesn’t indicate a lot more to come, but he can definitely cover ground on the outfield and really stir up the irritation of pitchers and catchers once he gets on base.
21. Ricardo Sanchez, LHP, Low-A Rome
Sanchez was the piece received when the Braves traded away Kyle Kubitza to the Angels before the 2015 season. Sanchez had been the jewel of the Angels international signings as he was signed in 2013 out of Venezuela. The 5’11, 170-pound lefty possessed a big curve, a fastball that can reach the mid-90s with excellent late movement, and a change that was developing.
After pitching stateside at 17, the Braves moved him right to Rome at 18, and the results showed that he was likely not ready for the level. He struggled with injury as well as poor performance, putting up a 5.45 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, and 21/31 BB/K over 39 2/3 innings. He averaged less than 4 innings per start on the season.
This year, the Braves sent Sanchez back to Rome, and as they’ve done with a number of pitchers this year, they worked with him to dial back his velocity a touch to use his natural movement on his fastball low in the zone. Sanchez probably has had the toughest time with this as he’s been hit hard in some fluky games where balls just seemed to get between two fielders constantly. His ERA may not look much better at 5.26, but his other underlying numbers show the improvement he’s made. His WHIP stands at 1.40, his strikeout to walk ratio is 56/30, and he’s averaged 5 innings per start.
The big thing hurting him this year is a weird HR/FB ratio that is not something that is likely to stay that high as when he is at his best, Sanchez is a model of working low in the zone with excellent movement, inducing weak contact to his fielders. I think many have begun to worry a bit on Sanchez due to the numbers upon repeating a level, but remember that this is a young man who still hasn’t thrown 150 minor league innings yet, and he just turned 19 on opening day of the minor league season, so he’ll be a teenager still all year long.
Next: Braves Minor League Database