Atlanta Braves Midseason Top 50 Prospects: 50-41
Atlanta Braves Midseason Top 50 Prospects
A Quick Primer
Welcome to Tomahawk Take’s midseason look at the Atlanta Braves top 50 prospects! This list is compiled by Benjamin Chase, writer for Tomahawk Take, through hours (upon hours upon hours upon…well, you get it) of game watching on milb.tv, conversations with scouts around the game, conversations with front office folks, and lots and lots of reading of others’ reviews on Braves prospects. This is Ben’s baby, so if you have an issue with any of the placement of the players or any such things, he’s the guy to send your hate mail to, not Fred or Jeff or Alan or any of the other talented TT writers (they have their own reasons for you to send your messages).
About the Process
I take all that info mentioned above and try to put together a list of guys based on a number of things. I will openly admit that proximity to the major leagues adds a significant bonus to a player’s value in my eyes. I’m also admittedly biased against a guy who has converted to the bullpen full-time, requiring a pretty impressive performance out of the bullpen to rank a guy very highly.
This list will not contain any players who were drafted in June or signed starting July 2nd. While I recognize that guys like Ian Anderson, Joey Wentz, Kyle Muller, and Kevin Maitan will be important pieces of the minor league system going forward, there is much that is yet to be learned about each player acquired this summer before I can accurately rank them within the system, so to have this out to you at this point before having a chance to gather that information from the sources I mentioned above, I’ll keep the midseason list free of both types and then add them in in the offseason Top 100 list (yes, that’s happening again, so start getting excited already!).
General Rules/Requests
I am more than willing to discuss alternative views on a player, but please be respectful of all posters as they post and especially the front office and team in general. This isn’t a place to air grievances about who should have been picked #3 in June or whether a certain prospect should have been part of the Cameron Maybin trade or some other discussion. We can talk all about the players mentioned, and then when I release the top 10 on Friday, I’ll also release a list of a number of other prospects that fans should be aware of that just didn’t make my list for the midseason.
With all that said, let’s take a look at today’s group – #’s 50-41!
Next: 50, 49
50. Jason Hursh, RHP, AA Mississippi
When the Braves made Hursh their first round selection in the 2013 draft, many saw his hard sinker and his projectable, athletic frame and dreamed of a future mid-rotation starter that could eat up innings. His initial performance when he was sent straight to low-A Rome by the Braves further inflamed those beliefs as he made 9 starts, posting a 0.67 ERA and 1.11 WHIP over 27 innings in his pro debut. Sure, the 10/15 BB/K ratio made you a touch concerned, and the fact that somehow, he allowed 9 runs, but only 2 were earned, pretty drastically skewing that ERA number should have risen a red flag, but we are nothing if not die-hard fans, believing our team drafts nothing but future superstars!
2014 was not even a bad season, though it wasn’t exactly “stunning” in prospect terms. Hursh was skipped over high-A, and he posted a 3.58 ERA and 1.31 WHIP over 148 1/3 innings at AA Mississippi. The 43/83 BB/K ratio was a very low strikeout rate, but the thought was he was simply a sinkerball pitcher, and low K numbers could work with a solid defense behind him.
Then 2015 happened. Hursh simply blew up out of the gate, and he never recovered. Well, at least not as a starter. He finished the season with a 5.00 ERA and 1.68 WHIP on the season. His time in Mississippi as a reliever was an overwhelming success, but he was blown out of the water in Gwinnett, so he was sent back to Mississippi for 2016.
This year, Hursh has ticked up his performance. I still don’t foresee him ever becoming a big strikeout guy, even out of the bullpen. However, he’s taken a step forward this season in realizing how to utilize what works best in his stuff as a reliever. His heavy, hard sink on his fastball is absolutely devastating to hitters, resulting a 2.5/1 ratio of balls on the ground to flyballs and line drives combined. He’s using that sinker even more, and he’s almost entirely staying away from any pitch above the belt, making it near impossible to drive a pitch. He’s got the numbers to match as well, with a 2.51 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, and a 20/36 BB/K ratio without a single home run allowed. While Hursh is not a spring chicken, he is only 24, so he has a good chance to contribute as a middle reliever going forward.
49. William Contreras, C, GCL
No, this is not the Cubs catching prospect Willson. The Braves have their own Contreras catching prospect, this one a signee out of Venezuela in 2014. He was a lightly heralded signing, considered to have a decent bat and glove, but likely to be roster filler more than anything.
However, last season, Contreras showed he was much more than that, as he hit .314/.370/.413 with the Braves’ Dominican Summer League team. Getting great scouting from the Dominican is a challenge, to say the least, but when a player stands out, guys remember him, and when I asked about the DSL Braves, the guys who saw them, to a man, recalled two players – Randy Ventura and Contreras. (There were others mentioned, but those two were mentioned by all four I talked with). The reviews on his defense is what blew me away. Not only was Contreras seen as a passable defender, he was actually regarded widely as an excellent defender, displaying an impressive arm and very good footwork as he threw out 40% of base runners. In fact, one scout even said to me that “the only catcher in the DSL who could have stopped Randy Ventura from running was his own teammate.”
I was more than pleased to see that the Braves brought Contreras to the GCL team, and though they have a three-headed catching group at that level, Contreras’ bat has already staked a claim to more playing time, as he’s hit .294/.333/.412 this year, and, more impressively, he’s thrown out fully half of the runners trying to steal on him so far this year. That’s a pretty incredible percentage!
He may not be at the top of many lines of thought quite yet at the catching position, and that’s part of why I hold some hesitation on him (on top of some power development concerns in his contact-driven swing), but Contreras absolutely has a great chance of turning into a viable catcher for the Braves as he matures.
Next: 48, 47
48. Steve Janas, RHP, AAA Gwinnett
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When Janas was drafted as a “senior sign” pick in 2013 out of Kennesaw State by the Braves, not many really had high expectations for the 6’5 righty originally from Marietta. He wasn’t blessed with amazing stuff, and his control wasn’t what would it would need to be to be successful without that dynamic stuff.
Janas caught a lot of eyes last year when he started his season with Carolina by putting up a 0.49 ERA and 0.60 WHIP over 37 IP and a 4/24 BB/K. He then moved to AA and found advanced hitters more ready for his “lesser” pitchers, but his approach was noted.
Coming into 2016, there was a glut of pitchers for the starting rotations, and Janas was put into the bullpen in Mississippi. He showed that his improved control exhibited in 2015 could also tick up with improved velocity, and his three-pitch mix out of the bullpen proved difficult for hitters to adjust to. In 55 1/3 innings over 28 appearances between AA and AAA, Janas has combined for a 1.95 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, and 8/37 BB/K.
Janas is not going to be a guy who strikes out a ton of hitters as he does not have a high-velocity fastball or monster breaking pitch, but he is a mature pitcher that knows how to work around the zone and sequence hitters. He’s also got the ability to go 2-3 innings out of the bullpen, which is a very valuable tool. He’s now on the doorstep of the big leagues, and I could absolutely see him pitching in the second half of the season in the big league club. He may never be a closer, but he could certainly have an extended run as an effective bullpen piece in the mold of a Cristhian Martinez type.
47. Anthony Concepcion, 1B/OF, GCL
Concepcion is one of those rare guys that fell through the cracks in the foreign market, signing with the Braves last season at 20 years old out of Venezuela. He was originally signed as a catcher, but his 6’1, 200-pound build really fit more in the outfield and first base, and that’s where he spent his time in his first season in the DSL.
What Concepcion did show in that DSL experience was a tremendous eye, as he hit .308/.410/.451. He had a 30/51 BB/K ratio and had 5 home runs as well as 12 stolen bases while also collecting 15 doubles and 3 triples in his 253 at bats. Concepcion was often in the middle of the DSL lineup that featured tremendous speed and he brought one of the few bats that could produce power.
The Braves moved him to the GCL this season, and he’s seen no real change in results facing pitching stateside now. His line of .302/.392/.465 over 43 at bats with 5/8 BB/K has started to catch the eye of many who are watching new draftees get their feet wet. Concepcion has played first base and corner outfield again this season, and his arm is certainly solid enough to handle the outfield, as is his athleticism, but his ability to field first base well as well allows his team to keep his bat in the lineup at this time.
The political and financial instability in Venezuela is causing more guys like Concepcion to slip through scouting cracks, especially the farther you get away from Caracas. Concepcion getting a late start could lead to some issues with his development due to him already being 21, but if you think of him as a raw college player at that age, he’s got a similar trajectory. The question will be how he fits defensively as he’s not a great defender anywhere – not poor in the outfield or first by any means, but not elite, and the Braves have taken to highly valuing elite defense in the outfield. However, a bat and eye like Concepcion has displayed thus far is hard to ignore, so he’ll get plenty of looks.
Next: 46, 45
46. Wes Parsons, RHP, High-A Carolina
Parsons is another jewel of the excellent Braves scouting and development staff, having been found as an undrafted free agent in 2013. He was immediately started at full-season Rome, and his performance there got him shooting up a number of team-focused prospect lists after the 2013 season. For Rome that season, he threw 109 2/3 innings, posting a 2.63 ERA and 1.02 WHIP with a 21/101 BB/K ratio.
All along, the biggest worry with Parsons has been his lean-ness as he is tremendously lean for his build over a 6’5 frame. He has not pitched a lot, having focused on golf in high school and only pitching one year of college before pitching independent ball. However, Parsons has a fastball that can touch 95+ and has exhibited solid control, even if his seasons since 2013 haven’t shown that.
After an injury-riddled 2015, the Braves made the move of putting Parsons into the bullpen this season with Carolina. He started the season and struggled in the role, but when multiple starters went down with injury, Parsons made a spot start and was very good in the role. He was then trusted with 2 more starts before he got injured and was put on the DL in May. Parsons’ fastball is still just as lively as ever, up to mid-90s with good life, and his slider has developed well, but his change up is far behind, which makes the bullpen his likely role going forward, if he can keep his arm healthy.
45. Keith Curcio, OF, High-A Carolina
Curcio was a signability pick in 2014 out of Florida Southern in the 6th round. He hit well in his first year, including a .316/.409/.579 line in 24 plate appearances for Rome. His size (5’10, 170 pounds) and lack of any real standout defensive position led many to think it was more mirage than reality, so Curcio was sent back to Rome to start 2015.
Curcio simply dominated the South Atlantic League in a longer stint this time, hitting .342/.416/.479 before being promoted to Carolina. One he arrived in Carolina, he was moved around defensively as the team seemed to be working on building him as a speedy/contact-driven utility player to develop, playing him 36 games at second base and 71 games in the outfield (multiple games he played both as he only played 101 games total).
While Curcio is probably not going to develop into a starting center fielder for the Braves, he has good contact skills. He also has excellent instincts on the base paths and solid defensive skills. He’s not got a great arm, but he does show good range in the outfield. Curcio has not had great overall numbers this season, but he’s shown those same skills and started heating up again in July.
Next: 44, 43
44. Ricardo Rodriguez, C, GCL
The Padres signed Rodriguez as the #2 overall catcher in the 2014 July 2nd international free agent class out of Venezuela. After he made his debut with the DSL team for the Padres and a pair of games with the rookie league team in Arizona, Rodriguez was traded in the offseason to the Braves as part of the Christian Bethancourt trade. The scouting report on Rodriguez discussed his solid eye, excellent power, and tremendous defense.
This season, the Braves have moved Rodriguez to their GCL team as part of a four-catcher rotation, which has really forced each catcher to play to their best when they are in games. While Rodriguez has flashed incredible movement around the plate and hit .300/.364/.400 at the plate, he’s yet to catch a runner stealing a base on the year.
The team will be watching closely with three great catchers and another that’s likely an org guy at GCL that will be needing to make a big impression going forward this season. Rodriguez has the pedigree to impress, certainly.
43. Dilmer Mejia, LHP, GCL
One of the most heralded young arms in recent memory, Mejia was signed out of Nicaragua in 2013. While not a “big money” prospect, his performance in the DSL immediately turned heads, even forcing the Braves to change their typical time frames with international signees. Those who start the season in the DSL typically finish their season there, but he threw so well that the team moved him stateside to the GCL. Mejia had a 1.68 ERA and 0.86 WHIP in 59 innings with the DSL squad before being promoted in 2014, where he had a 3.60 ERA and 1.27 WHIP over 3 starts. Quite impressive for a 17 year old!
Many were waiting for Mejia to really assert himself in 2015 and become a pitcher that jumped up prospect lists. However, after an injury-plagued time in extended spring, Mejia struggled through 21 2/3 innings with the GCL squad before going onto the DL, ending his season.
Still just 18 to start the season, Mejia returned to the GCL in 2016, and the Braves have seen that same pitcher that stunned them in 2014. Thus far, he’s thrown 12 2/3 innings, with a 2.13 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and a 4/12 BB/K.
Mejia is a small lefty, standing 5’11 and weighing in at a listed 160 pounds. From the most recent pictures I’ve seen, Mejia is more in the range of 175ish, but that’s still not all that large. He’s turned 19 in the season, but he’s still developing physically. Mejia isn’t a guy who will touch upper 90s, but he can touch into the mid-90s with a fastball. However, his most impressive trait is not velocity – it’s his control. In his minor league career, he has walked a mere 5% of hitters he’s faced, a tremendous number considering his excellent strikeout rate at a young age. He’s mature beyond his years on the mound, certainly, and I could absolutely see him getting time at Danville this year, and perhaps even Rome depending on how he continues to progress coming off last season’s injury.
Next: 42, 41
42. Jaret Hellinger, LHP, Danville
The Braves drafted Hellinger out of high school in Stockbridge, Georgia in the 20th round in 2015. He came out and just showed that to be a very wise decision in the GCL. He threw 34 1/3 innings, tallying a 3.15 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, and 14/33 BB/K. As an 18 year old against professional hitters, that was a more than impressive debut. However, there was little to find on Hellinger as far as video or detailed scouting when I went looking last fall.
Over the winter, I got more info that has been confirmed a few places. Hellinger throws in the low-90s with a two-seam and four-seam fastball, has a very good change up, and brings a curve ball that has days of being his best pitch and days of being his worst and lots of days in between. He split 2015 between the bullpen and rotation, and he has the ability to succeed in either role.
As a 6’4, 170-pound lefty, Hellinger has good projection left in his body. He’s thrown well this year, though he’s struggled some with his location. He has the frame to continue adding strength to allow him to turn that low-90s fastball possibly into more, but even if he does not add velocity, building up that strength should allow him to be a guy who can hold up to the rigors of a long season. Hellinger’s not even 20 until the offseason, so doing well at Danville this year will put him on track to be in full-season ball at 20 next year.
41. Johan Camargo, IF, AA Mississippi
When the Braves signed Camargo out of Panama, he was considered to be elite in his defense, and the team also appreciated his advanced ability to make contact. While he wasn’t one of their “big money” guys, his performance with the Dominican Summer League team showed their impressions to be true, as he hit .343/.433/.455 with 2 home runs and 6 stolen bases in 241 plate appearances as an 18 year old.
The Braves skipped Camargo over the GCL in 2013, and he continued hitting, going .294/.359/.360, however, his power and speed both disappeared to some degree, and his control of the strike zone as well, as he had an 18/31 BB/K ratio. While his glove remained elite, this was the best his bat would show as the Braves moved him up in the system in 2014 and then played him in Carolina in 2015.
The choice in the fall of 2015 was to send Camargo to the Arizona Fall League, where most teams send their top prospects, in order to have him work on playing positions other than shortstop. He played 11 games at third base in the fall league, and he’s continued playing around the infield this season for Mississippi, playing most of his time at second base before Ozzie Albies was recently demoted, but also playing short and third as well.
Camargo’s bat will never earn him a major league starting job, but he’s shown enough this year to be a valuable bench piece with his elite glove around the infield could absolutely earn him a spot on a major league bench, so it would not surprise me to see Camargo moved to Gwinnett soon as Albies and Dansby Swanson work together in the infield.
Next: Braves Minor League Database