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Atlanta Braves Have What the Red Sox Need: Why Hesitate?

By Alan Carpenter

Jun 27, 2016; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; Boston Red Sox pitcher David Price (24) looks on against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. Tampa Bay Rays defeated the Boston Red Sox 13-7. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
Jun 27, 2016; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; Boston Red Sox pitcher David Price (24) looks on against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. Tampa Bay Rays defeated the Boston Red Sox 13-7. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports /
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May 23, 2016; Seattle, WA, USA; Oakland Athletics starting pitcher Rich Hill (18) and catcher Stephen Vogt (21) walk back to the dugout following a 5-0 victory against the Seattle Mariners at Safeco Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports
May 23, 2016; Seattle, WA, USA; Oakland Athletics starting pitcher Rich Hill (18) and catcher Stephen Vogt (21) walk back to the dugout following a 5-0 victory against the Seattle Mariners at Safeco Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports /

To Rent or to Buy

I’m going to set aside discussion of the obvious Red Sox pitching woes, save for this summary.  Their starters rank 23rd worst in baseball in ERA and only two of them have an ERA under 4.50.  That’s simply a crisis for a now-third-place team with high aspirations, which is exactly why this whole topic is relevant.

How do they proceed?

The Red Sox have been tied to virtually every starting pitcher available (or not) in the market.  Here’s a basic list, with ages, results, and contracts:

  • Rich Hill, Oakland (36).  2.25 ERA.  Signed through 2016.
  • Ervin Santana, Twins (33).  4.06 ERA.  Signed through 2018 (+2 options)
  • Sonny Gray (26), Oakland.  5.16 ERA (though improving). 1st year. arbitration eligible in 2017; under control through 2019.
  • Julio Teheran (25), Atlanta.  2.72 ERA.  Signed through 2019 (+1 cheap option)
  • Matt Moore (27), Tampa Bay.  4.54 ERA. Signed through 2016 (+3 cheap options).
  • Jake Odorizzi (26), Tampa Bay.  4.33 ERA.  1st year. arbitration eligible in 2017; under control through 2019.

There’s still some fantasizing with names like Chris Sale or Jose Fernandez, but the price for each one would truly require the Red Sox to charter a bus, round up all of their top prospects, and ship them to either Chicago or Miami.  More on these guys later.

SO HERE ARE THE COMPLICATIONS FOR BOSTON

Let’s take each pitcher in turn.

RICH HILL.  He’s a rental, but Oakland will want the equivalent of a 1st round draft pick back.  Why?  Because they might very well be inclined to make a Qualifying Offer to Hill at season’s end, which would net them an extra draft pick.  Suddenly Hill doesn’t seem as cheap as you’d think.

Also, there is competition as both the Dodgers and Blue Jays are in play, which would certainly jack up the price.

More from Tomahawk Take

ERVIN SANTANA.  Well, he’s been better than what they’ve got, but not by a lot.  He will eat innings for you, and that could be enough for Boston.  The money probably isn’t a big issue, but is he the kind of playoff-run impact guy who you ship off a Top 100 prospect for?  Even for a couple more years? The answer is “maybe”… pretty much due to lack of options.

SONNY GRAY.  Red flags are still flapping in the breeze.  Sure, he beat the Twins on Wednesday on 1 earned run, but walked 4 in 6 innings and gave up seven earned runs just a week ago vs. Pittsburgh.  Gray hasn’t managed more than 2 back-to-back starts with in-game ERAs under 4.00 all year.

Oakland is probably manic over him as it is, hoping Gray recovers old form and hoping they don’t feel compelled to ‘sell low’.  Boston might want to be that “buy low” buyer… but with no idea what they’re buying, it’s hard to commit to a deal.

JULIO TEHERAN.  “There are some in the Red Sox organization who are luke-warm on Teheran” according to Rob Bradford of WEEI.com.  That’s probably because “Atlanta’s asking price for both starter Julio Teheran and Arodys Viczaino remains ‘crazy‘”.  Certainly, that’s understandable, given the parameters.

MOORE and ODORIZZI.  While leaving the door ajar slightly, Rays President Matt Silverman told the Boston Herald “Personally, we’d prefer not to [engage in a trade with Boston]. It’s a lot less fun to have to sit there and watch a player 19 times a year… We have to be open, but if the return is about the same, I would give the nod away from the division.”

Next: See Ya... Next Year?

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