Atlanta Braves Announce Signing of 1st Pick Ian Anderson
So Let’s Check The Matrix
The bonus pool amounts that “count” toward Atlanta’s limit are all of those paid in the first 10 rounds, plus anything above $100,000 to all individual players in the remaining rounds (11-40).
Here’s what we know on the bonus situation (or otherwise believe), based on numbers published reports:
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- Anderson: $4,000,000
- Wentz: $3,050,000
- Muller: $2,500,000
- Cumberland: $1,500,000
- Harrington: $900,000
- Wilson: $1,200,000
- Walker: $275,000
- Gonzalez: $25,000
- Moss: $10,000
- Hyssong: Unknown; believed to be $10K
- Neslony: Unsigned until after College World Series; expected to be $10K
- Mooney: $5000
- Round 11, Rowland: $300,000 against the pool
- Round 15, Becherer: $75,000 against the pool
- Round 19, Davidson: $25,000 against the pool
All of these figures add to $13,885,000. As described in outrageous detail here, the Atlanta Braves 2016 Draft Bonus Pool allocation (i.e., the most they can spend without penalty) is $13,224,100.
That puts the Braves in the hole by $660,900.
That’s not a horrible thing at this point, for the penalty amounts to 75% of this $660,900. But it only leaves a scant $305 that could be spent before Atlanta ends up in forbidden territory: that land in which their next draft pick (first rounder in 2017) is lost.
Yes, that was three hundred and five dollars. Ouch.
Unfinished Business
Do note that there is still one player in the first 10 rounds that is not yet signed, that being Round 9 pick Tyler Neslony, who is in a $160,100 slot. Round 8 pick Taylor Hyssong sits in a slot valued at $171,500; we believe he is signed, but his bonus is unknown. For the purposes of the math above, $10,000 was assumed for each.
Obviously the Braves have no space for either one above those $10K guesses.
Thus there is a slight risk here. If Neslony fails to sign, then Atlanta would be forced to give up the bonus money allocated to his slots. That could be disastrous as Atlanta would lose that slot value, instantly putting them over the edge.
It’s at least plausible that an agent, recognizing this situation, might be inclined to play a little hardball – knowing that the Braves need to have their client signed. Hopefully not, but that’s the kind of thing that could happen when running up to the edge of the cliff.
Additional Implications
Thee have been some twitter flurries lately around 16th round pick Josh Anthony, a player that much of Braves’ Country would like to see in the fold as well. At this time, those tweets have a lot of conflicting information, but we have no word from the Braves about whether he can be signed or not.
If the numbers above are correct (no guarantees), it means that Atlanta has exactly $100,305 available to offer him before that dreaded 2nd level penalty hits – or anyone else still unsigned from Rounds 11-40. That could be a tough sell.
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July 15th is the last day that draft picks may be signed. Those with no college eligibility remaining become free agents at that point. Anthony, a Junior College player, would be eligible for the 2017 draft if he opts to go to Auburn.