Atlanta Braves Morning Chop: Inflation and the Pitching Market
The Red Sox are saying some interesting things about the pitching market, and what they are saying suggests less trade movement than you might expect this summer.
It is officially Summer! That happened this morning, and while that usually means a flurry of baseball trades, you might see fewer impact players moved this summer if the Red Sox’ experience is any indication.
Check this from the Boston Herald’s Michael Silverman from yesterday afternoon (emphasis added):
"“The draft truly does command a great deal of the Red Sox’ attention and manpower annually, but that does not mean that executives and scouts were waiting to investigate possible trade targets. They have been scouting and inquiring about virtually every starter on the market. According to multiple baseball sources, the Sox have not shied away from asking about a few of the most elite names in the game — Jose Fernandez of the Marlins, Gerrit Cole of the Pirates are two such prime talents — even if the teams have no plans of moving that player. This is exactly what the Red Sox did in the offseason, when they spoke with the White Sox about Chris Sale, the Mets about Matt Harvey and the A’s about Sonny Gray. The responses over the winter tended to be along the lines of “Let’s start with the names of Xander Bogaerts and Mookie Betts,” a conversational non-starter if there ever was one. “The responses from teams this summer have not been much different, just as the Red Sox have not changed their tune about dealing away Bogaerts or Betts. The price for trading for an elite starter remains extraordinarily high since the winter. It is hardly a shocking development that this is truly a seller’s market. With a few exceptions, there is a glut of mediocre starters who can be had. What’s factoring into buyers’ regret-before-even-buying is that there will be a relatively dismal crop of free agent starters available in the offseason.”"
The Braves are looking for a young impact bat that is close to being major league ready… if not one already in the major leagues. Julio Teheran is their prime trade chip, but if anything, he’s only getting better as this season is progressing: an early 4.60 ERA in April has given way to 1.38 in May, 2.43 in June (thanks to one aberrant inning).
So for those thinking he should be kept in the fold, your wish could be granted – simply because his price has to be crazy-high now.
Consider:
- Jose Fernandez is a free agent in 2019, a Scott Boras client, and via arbitration will probably get numbers that exceed those in Teheran’s contract before his free agency begins. 2½ years of control is good to have, but based on the above and reports from the off-season, Bogaerts and Betts would have been Miami’s floor price for Fernandez.
- Meanwhile, if Teheran’s entire contract is considered – with the 2020 option – he’ll be under team control for four more years… never exceeding $12 million annually.
Who do you think is more valuable right now?
Change in the Paradigm
The “Buying” club are suddenly being faced with a decision they didn’t have to make before: the question of whether they can afford to improve their pitching at the expense of their offense.
Normally, deadline trades have been a matter of ‘impact pitcher for prospects’. Even if the prospects are quite valuable on paper, such a deal is relatively painless since there might be years between the trade and the payoff for the trade partner, while there is instant feedback from the player acquired.
But now Atlanta and others are looking are the scarcity of starting pitching and upping the ante. Atlanta has publicly stated that prospects are nice, but that they want a major league hitter for Teheran.
So how many clubs have excess hitting? Not many.
Just going down the list of best offenses, you come up with the Cubs, Red Sox, Giants, Pirates, Cardinals, Indians (!). The Rangers are in the neighborhood of that list, and you’d have to wonder if they’d part with Joey Gallo. His loss would not hurt their major league club, and yet he’s close enough to get Atlanta’s attention.
So it’s paying the price for premium talent… or paying a whole different price for mediocre results. Ask the Chicago White Sox just how that’s working for them.
Just more food for thought as we get ready for the trade season.