Atlanta Braves to Break The Bank In International Signings
By Fred Owens
What are the Braves Expected to Spend
As noted the Braves are strongly linked to have handshake agreements with a list of the best players available. Here’s what Badler says they’ cost.
- Kevin Maitan – 6’2”, 175 pounds switch hitting shortstop with power – $4M+
- Abrahan Gutierrez – 6’2”, 205 pound catcher – $3.5M ??
- Yunior Severino – 5’10”, 160 pound switch hitting shortstop – $2M-
- Livan Soto – 5’11”, 165 pound shortstop – $1M+
- Juan Contreras – 6’1”, 180-pound RHP – $1M
The ?? after Gutierrez is due to remarks from scouts quoted by Badler in the post linked above.
"“. . . several scouts said the right-handed-hitting Gutierrez didn’t make the progress they were hoping to see from him over the past year. . . “"
If Gutierrez has indeed failed to progress as hoped, the Braves could get away with a slightly smaller bonus.
There’s also a cautionary note about a young Dominican shortstop Freudis Nova who Badler says “was in line for a bonus in the $2.5 million area” until he “tested positive for anabolic steroids in February.” Badler goes on to discuss the steroid issue.
"The unfortunate truth is that a lot of amateur players in Latin America are on anabolic steroids years in advance of when they become eligible to sign, only to cycle off and avoid detection in time for the signing to come through cleanly. . . It’s hard to know exactly how to account for steroids in an evaluation, other than taking it on a case-by-case basis. . .”"
Since there’s no way for me to know whether Gutierrez progressed or if someone will test positive and reduce our projected spending, we can only look at the numbers we have from a strictly business point of view.
The estimates provided indicate that the Braves are ready to spend about $11.5M on five players without considering any players they might want to add for smaller bonuses. That total is $7M – 244% – more than the basic pool allocation and $4.4M – 161% – more than the max pool they can get via trade.
Clearly there is no reason at all to trade away assets to gain monopoly money which will not change the penalties MLB will impose; it just doesn’t make sense.
That’s A Wrap
While the Braves have traded for competitive balance slots in the Rule 4 Draft, the decision whether to go seeking extra pool money in return for prospects for the international period isn’t so straight forward.
The Rule 4 Draft consists of players who have at least completed high school, not kids who have just become old enough to try for the driver’s license. Scouts do watch these kids it’s clearly more of a guessing game when signing them than signing players in the Rule 4 Draft.
Badler quotes one international scouting director as wondering why he watches some of these players.
"“Someone at a showcase the other day was showing a (player who wouldn’t be eligible until 2020) “I’m watching a 12-year-old taking batting practice. What am I going to get out of that?”"
The international signing period begins a little over a month from now and we’ll watch for more updates in order to keep you informed. ben has already provide several mock drafts in preparation for the first year player draft that begins in nine days.
As usual we’ll run a live thread on the day and keep you updated on which players are taken over the remaining rounds so keep watching here at the Take.