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The Case for Trading Atlanta Braves Pitcher Julio Teheran

By Alan Carpenter

Mar 30, 2016; Lake Buena Vista, FL, USA; Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Julio Teheran (49) warms up in the middle of the fourth inning of a spring training baseball game against the New York Yankees at Champion Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports
Mar 30, 2016; Lake Buena Vista, FL, USA; Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Julio Teheran (49) warms up in the middle of the fourth inning of a spring training baseball game against the New York Yankees at Champion Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports /
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May 19, 2016; New York City, NY, USA; Washington Nationals starting pitcher Stephen Strasburg (37) delivers a pitch against the New York Mets in the first inning at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Noah K. Murray-USA TODAY Sports
May 19, 2016; New York City, NY, USA; Washington Nationals starting pitcher Stephen Strasburg (37) delivers a pitch against the New York Mets in the first inning at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Noah K. Murray-USA TODAY Sports /

The Case to Keep Him

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I’m just going to throw some numbers out here for a minute:

  • 7 years, $180 million
  • 7 years, $175 million
  • 7 years, $161 million
  • 6 years, $155 million
  • 6 years $147 million
  • 6 years, $144 million

These are not the highest-value pitching contracts in the majors.  In fact, I intentionally left out the deals of David Price, Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, and the newest for Zack Greinke.  Those are higher.  But the Braves don’t play in those waters, and Julio Teheran isn’t that kind of ace pitcher.

But the next tier has pitchers with the kind of performance that Teheran is now exhibiting:  Justin Verlander, King Felix, Stephen Strasburg are among them.  Also included are C.C. Sabathia, Jon Lester, and Cole Hamels.

We can argue about whether Teheran really belongs in this company or not, but I don’t really think there is a lot of dispute on this point:  if Teheran were to finish this season with the projected stats he has now (2.57 ERA) and if he were a free agent, he would get a contract akin to those shown above…. 6 or 7 years and $140-$180 million.  That’s unfortunately just a fact in this market.

His current deal with Atlanta will pay $3.3 million in 2016 and escalate to an option year at just $12 million in 2020.  That’s under $30 million for 5 more years of control.

So… $100+ million of performance in terms of differential value (that is not directly considering projected performance, just market rate for that kind of control for an equivalent #1 pitcher).  That should be strong motivation to keep him around.

Can Atlanta possibly afford to trade Teheran?

Yes – the Braves are flush with pitching talent… but it’s not fully ready for prime time.  Aaron Blair is looking like he could be a stud, but is suffering evident growing pains.  Williams Perez, Mike Foltynewicz, Casey Kelly, John Gant – all have been having similar issues to some degree or another.  Lucas Sims, Chris Ellis, Sean Newcomb, and others are looking good, but will need time.

If the Braves were to trade Teheran, that would leave Matt Wisler as the senior member of the rotation… not counting Bud Norris, who likely would be moved back from the bullpen to start.

Is this a healthy thing for the ‘kids’?

That kind of veteran leadership is the role of the pitching coach.  Yes, it is, but it is also helpful to have multiple, additional voices around to assist – guys who are still in the game on a daily basis.

The Braves just added some more help there.  True as well:  Roger McDowell was joined by Marty Reed, the new bullpen coach.  Eddie Perez hasn’t gone anywhere, either, plus there’s two experienced regular catchers on the bench.  That’s good, but having that one guy who you know will go out there and take on the world every time out does set up a staff for success.

Maybe it’s just a psychological thing, but having a #1 makes everyone else better.  Taking out that #1 leaves a void.  Replacing him with a new #5 undoubtedly means a large performance drop off.

With the kind of numbers those above contracts suggest, replacing Teheran via the open market will be nigh-on impossible for the Braves… if there’s actually anyone to buy out there.

Who do you want to go out and offer a contract to?

Anybody really excite you on that list?  Reminder:  Teheran gets just $6.3 million in 2017.  You can criticize Frank Wren all you want for other contracts, but he gets a gold star for this one.

It might require another year before the ‘next’ crop of pitchers can be relied upon to fill out a rotation and compete strongly in nearly every game.  Without Teheran there, that looks to be a strong struggle for them.

So this argument is “not yet”… and “not nearly yet“, as the Braves need to keep Teheran for both leadership and financial reasons.

Next: Sell High!!

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