The Demise of the Intentional Walk and Rise of the K Zone: Atlanta Braves Implications

Messing With the Strike Zone

The intentional walk thing is more novelty than actual change.  This one has the potential to change the game significantly… if umpires cooperate.

I foresee 2 impacts with a strike zone change:  (1) more offense; and (2) more arguments.

ESPN cites the graphic in their tweet below as a reason for the change:

They believe that the strike zone is lengthening – downward – and MLB apparently agrees.

The Braves have a lot of young pitchers, with many who rely on getting the ball to the lower parts of the strike zone.  They also have several that have control issues in general.  This rule has the potential to adversely impact both groups.

Pitchers that won’t care about the change will be those with good control, those who change speeds well, and those who tend to use both sides of the plate effectively.

Either way, I do expect this means more walks, more hitting pitches in the happy zones and more offense.  That could require Braves’ pitchers to do a lot more damage control, though many other teams will face the same challenges.

The key may be in the consistency of the umpires.  Essentially, baseball is trying to pull them back a few years, and it can be tough to change some umps.  A more adaptable umpire could change right away.  A stubborn one behind home plate the very next night could call things the way he’s been doing it for 10 years.

Thus the arguments that might ensue.

For at least the first year, this is going to put the onus on pitchers to adapt quickly once they figure out an umpire’s particular proclivities.  That could be tougher on younger pitchers.

Offensiveness

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But do the Braves have the bats – now or in the future – to take advantage of better pitches?  The short answer would seem to be ‘no’, though I would expect more walks from the current team, had this change been implemented immediately.

Either way, if you’re expecting more offense, then you might actually have to have an offense to be able to improve it.  4 inches whacked off the bottom of a K Zone will not suddenly turn anemic hitters into All-Stars.  However, I would expect good hitters to thrive more.

That could change a bit for Atlanta in the coming season, with more of Albies, Swanson, Enciarte, and less of Aybar, Castro, et al.  The minor leaguers already see inconsistent pitching, so having pitchers throwing in a narrower zone could be helpful… and these guys are just better hitters, period.

Does a Smaller K Zone Really Suggest More Offense?

If 2009 and 2011 represent the recent nadir of strike-calling, then you’d expect more runs scored in those years compared to the others in the 2009-2015 range.

This does stand up to the stats test, too, with the numbers trending toward less offense:

• 2009:  4.61 runs per game; .262 batting average across all teams
• 2010:  4.38 RPG;  .257
• 2011:  4.28 RPG;  .255
• 2012:  4.32 RPG;  .255
• 2013:  4.17;  .253
• 2014:  4.07;  .251
• 2015:  4.25;  .254

Likewise, the walk rates and strikeout rates are consistent with those trends.  2016 is a bit higher so far, but it’s hard to say if that’s a continuing trend (though the K rates are the highest ever at nearly 8 per team/per game).

Next: Get Your Mock-asins On!

By the way:  intentional walks?  On average, each team issues one only every 5 games.

That’s a rule that was really begging to be changed, huh?

ESPN sources contributed to this report.