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How Draft Day Could Turn to Disaster for the Atlanta Braves

By Alan Carpenter

Jun 15, 2015; Omaha, NE, USA; Florida Gators pitcher A.J. Puk (10) throws against the Virginia Cavaliers during the first inning at TD Ameritrade Park. Mandatory Credit: Bruce Thorson-USA TODAY Sports
Jun 15, 2015; Omaha, NE, USA; Florida Gators pitcher A.J. Puk (10) throws against the Virginia Cavaliers during the first inning at TD Ameritrade Park. Mandatory Credit: Bruce Thorson-USA TODAY Sports /
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Aug 15, 2015; Chicago, IL, USA; National pitcher Riley Pint (27) warms up before the Under Armour All America Baseball game against the American team at Wrigley field. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-USA TODAY Sports
Aug 15, 2015; Chicago, IL, USA; National pitcher Riley Pint (27) warms up before the Under Armour All America Baseball game against the American team at Wrigley field. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-USA TODAY Sports /

Mock Drafts are Just Mocking Me Now

Let’s just concentrate on that third pick.  Here’s what people are saying about that right now… and it’s mostly centered around Pitchers A.J. Puk, Riley Pint, Jason Groome – and Lewis – for the Phillies, Reds, and Braves.

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Of all of these, the one whose discussion I want to believe the most is that from Taylor Ward at Scout.com.

  • He has the Phils with Puk as an immediate high-impact arm (which they happen to need);
  • He has the Reds with a “high upside” guy in Ray… which unfortunately is the opposite of what I’m thinking about him.  Hopefully the proximity of Louisville and Cincy means they fall in love with him.
  • That would leave the Braves with Kyle Lewis – which has to be the bat of choice for Atlanta…if they were to get the chance at him.  Which probably won’t happen.

Please Be Wrong, Ben!

So Ben is scouring scraps of paper and indentations on discarded post-it note pads in dumpsters  in the hopes of getting inside info from the Braves, and he thinks that maybe they are trying to go with not one, but two high school California outfielders if Lewis isn’t available… which is probably likely.

But this fits exactly with what John Coppolella told Jonah Keri this week about his philosophy on building a team:  “drafting for upside” was the phrase Colby used in describing that in his breakdown of the interview.

  • That doesn’t mean “safe” picks
  • That doesn’t mean “college kids”

That means toolsy guys who might work… or might flame out.  At the moment, there are exactly 2 players who fit the cryptic mold Ben was shaping for the Braves this week:

  • Mickey Moniak (La Costa Canyon HS, Carlsbad, CA).
  • Blake Rutherford (Chaminade Prep, Canoga Park, CA).

This pair ranks #8 and #10 on BaseballAmerica’s chart.  They are #6 and #7 on the MLB Pipeline chart.  I don’t know how on earth the Braves think they’d be able to get both of them, but let’s humor the effort for a second:

Moniak:  hit really well in ‘the showcase circuit’ against decent pitchers.  But he’s reported to be marginal on power… maybe something like a Nick Markakis who could stay in center field.  But if that’s his ceiling, then that doesn’t sound like the kind of bat that can take the Braves to another level in 5 years’ time.

Rutherford:  I’ll quote from the Pipeline site… “has a chance to be an above-average hitter with above-average raw power”.  Well there’s a real sure-thing for you.  And he’s already 19 years old, too.  Heck, one of his own Chaminade teammates has more homers (7) than Blake (4), and that guy (Nick Kahle) isn’t ranked at all.

In short, both of these kids scare me.

Next: Is there a Fall-back Plan?

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