Atlanta Braves’ Nick Markakis is a Better Baseball Player Than Jason Heyward
By Josh Brown
The problem with WAR
“But, Heyward has better WAR stats.. blah blah blah.” I don’t care about WAR. Take your Wins Above Replacement and throw them out the window. WAR is a product. WAR grew out of the idea to compare MLB players to “replacement-level” players – i.e., those at Triple-A. The idea is to estimate how many victories an individual’s contribution during a season is worth. It’s the cornerstone on which FanGraphs built its brand, and considering FanGraphs success, their deep baseball analysis is certainly worth looking at.
I don’t hate WAR or anything, I just don’t care for it. The WAR metric is only as good as its weakest link, and the defensive components of WAR just don’t measure up to it’s offensive counterparts. In fact, WAR is a shaky opinion and not a stat. WAR is a comparison of a player to a non-controllable variable. WAR measures context just as much as performance. This is no ingredient for accurate assessments. So, sure Heyward might have a pretty good defensive WAR compared to other right fielders when many other right fielders are built and move like Matt Kemp.
Batting average, OPS, OBP, ERA, FIP, etc., are the products of certain mathematical calculations. WAR, however, is partially a product of fielding metrics by which nothing is actually every certain. What I’m saying is — most baseball stats are based entirely on indisputable math. WAR is built on theory and assumption, which is fine. But, let’s not pay guys $184 million because of it.
Only once in six seasons has Jason Heyward ever hit above .277. Markakis has hit north of .280 eight times.
Sometimes… the bottom lines are the most telling.