Atlanta Braves are Finding Out What Pittsburgh Sensed About Eric O’Flaherty
So What’s The Problem Here?
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O’Flaherty has truly not pitched very much since his May 2013 surgery to replace his Ulnar Collateral Ligament (50 innings in 2014/15). The now-31-year-old was good in his return with Oakland in late 2014 (20 innings, 2.25 ERA, 0.95 WHIP).
However, in 2015, that changed. An 8.10 ERA with a 2.17 WHIP with the Mets and Oakland – with the Mets seeing the same ugly 13.50 ERA that he’s sporting today…and they limited that damage to under 9 innings. He’s been utterly hittable… 22 hits in his last 10.2 innings since leaving Oakland.
There’s been no obvious change in velocity. His fastball remains right around 90 mph; changeup at 84-86… which isn’t much of a change, but then he almost never throws it. His sinker/slider has slowed from 86 in 2012-13 (pre-surgery) to 82-83 mph (post-surgery).
Charts available from BrooksBaseball.net suggest that it really doesn’t matter what he throws, either: the sinker and the fastball are both being hammered since July of last year. Such was not the case prior to surgery. EOF’s strike-rate is down a bit this year (54%), but it’s never been above 63% either… 61-62% had been his norm. The dip in 2016 (though just 39 pitches are involved; 3 more strikes would be ‘normal’) does suggest that he’s “nibbling” more… which makes sense when your pitches are being hit as hard as they are.
The best explanation would seem to be lack of movement. Over his career, O’Flaherty has seen left-handed hitters manage just .211 off his pitching. In 2015, that was .274. It’s now .333. Lefty hitter BABIP rates are also elevated, suggesting stronger contact and less being fooled as before. And of course right-handed hitters are doing even better.
If EOF can’t figure out what the difference is – and fix it – then it’s going to continue to be a long road for him with Atlanta, for right now these results suggest that he only time he should be used in a game is for mop-up duty during a blow-out.
Meanwhile: Matt Marksberry, toiling at AA Mississippi: 1.29 ERA in 7 innings, allowing 3 hits and 2 walks with a 0.71 WHIP. Waiting in the wings.