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Atlanta Braves’ Draft Position Grants the Right to Spend a Lot of Money

By Alan Carpenter

Jul 20, 2015; Phoenix, AZ, USA; First overall pick in the 2015 MLB draft Dansby Swanson looks on after signing with the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field. At this point, he has no idea what's to come later! Mandatory Credit: Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports
Jul 20, 2015; Phoenix, AZ, USA; First overall pick in the 2015 MLB draft Dansby Swanson looks on after signing with the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field. At this point, he has no idea what's to come later! Mandatory Credit: Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports /
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Apr 6, 2016; Bronx, NY, USA; Houston Astros shortstop Carlos Correa (1) runs up the first baseline after hitting a single against the New York Yankees during the seventh inning at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Adam Hunger-USA TODAY Sports
Apr 6, 2016; Bronx, NY, USA; Houston Astros shortstop Carlos Correa (1) runs up the first baseline after hitting a single against the New York Yankees during the seventh inning at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Adam Hunger-USA TODAY Sports /

Differing Drafts, Different Motivations

In his discussion, Ken Rosenthal cites the Houston Astros, which talked Carlos Correa into accepting less money in 2012 so that they could retain enough funding to choose Lance McCullers with their next (41st) pick.  Likewise, they did the same in 2015 in signing Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker to deals that allowed them to also land Daz Cameron.

How did that work?  Camoeron was a perfect candidate for this trick, and Houston had the ideal setup, owning the 2nd, 5th, and 37th picks:  their regular pick plus two high-value compensation picks for a total 1st round pool worth a whopping $13,277,400.

While initially ranked in the Top 10, there were some pre-draft rumblings about his bonus demands and concerns that Cameron could fall several spots.  After talking to Houston, his agent apparently told teams not to bother drafting him unless they had a $4 million check in hand.  Being a high schooler, Cameron had the leverage, for he could – in theory – refuse to sign if somebody called the bluff.

Oh – and Cameron’s agent?  Scott Boras.

#2 pick Bregman signed for $5.9 million ($1.5 million under slot).  Tucker, the 5th pick, signed just under slot at $4 million.  The 37th slot was normally worth $1.668 million, but Cameron signed for $4 million.

Boom.  Houston got three Top-10 talents in the same draft.  After that, all they had to do was save a bit extra and Cameron’s slot overage was covered.

Rosenthal is calling this practice ‘draft manipulation’.  Houston would probably prefer ‘draft savvy.’

The Braves’ Angle

More from Tomahawk Take

All that to say this:  would the Atlanta Braves try to engage in some sort of manipulation like this with their first two picks (#’s 3 and 40)?

The short answer is probably not, though this is looking like a fairly ‘deep’ draft, which would tend to suggest that it’s possible.  However, it’s easier to pull off such a move from the top draft position thanks to having more spending available.

Atlanta’s top 3 slots add up to $9.587 million.  If this were to work, it would be akin to finding 2 players who would be drafted around the 5th-20th positions and offering both around $4 million (+/-).  If it worked, it could be a better strategy than offering a single player the top slot value of $6.5 million… particularly if we’re talking about a riskier high school pitcher, for instance.

So instead of getting Pick 3/40/44 talents, Atlanta could perhaps end up with (conjecture) the equivalent of Pick 8/15/50 talents.

POSSIBLE STRATEGY #2

There’s another way this could play out, too, and this is why I think Ken Rosenthal’s call for action is misguided… there are alternate strategies that can be employed by those not trying to ‘game’ the system:

While the Braves have a $6.5 million slot at #3, the Phillies have $Nine million at #1 and the Reds have $7.76 million for slot #2.  Both of these teams also have greater needs than Atlanta, and they might feel the need to garner (effectively) 2 first round talents in the manner described above.

By contrast, Atlanta might see that happen and then say “thankyouverymuch” as they snap up the top talent on the board – whoever that might end up being.  Sometimes the best player on the board is worth taking, period.

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