Atlanta Braves Top 100 Prospects: #2 Ozhaino Albies
Ozzie Albies Scouting Report
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Albies is listed at 5’9″ and 150 pounds. He’s a switch hitter and throws right handed. He may be another 15-20 pounds now, but he’s not gained a ton of size since his signing.
Hitting
Albies has a compact stroke that may not produce a ton of over the fence power, but it dives the ball solid in the gaps, and he uses his exceptional speed to get extra bases on a number of hits that likely most hitters would round first and stay with a single. Many discount Albies offensive impact due to the lack of over the fence power in his game. In watching Albies, you see how he consistently places the heart of the bat on the ball, getting the most out of every time he hits.
Albies has more natural drive in his swing from the right side, but I think some of that is intentional. He has more of a slap-or-gap approach from the left side, attempting to get the ball down to utilize his speed out of the box from the left side, but interestingly, Albies hit 7 of his 8 triples as a lefty hitter in 2015, so when he does get hold of one into the gap from that side, he can certainly run for a while.
In watching him, I noted that he seemed to struggle much more in recognizing hard breaking stuff when facing a right handed pitcher. Whether that’s due to him hitting from the left side or just his recognition, he didn’t seem to ever really drive a hard breaking ball from a righty, though he didn’t miss them, usually fouling them off until he got what he was looking for.
At the plate, Albies faced only two guys in preseason top 100 lists, Tyler Kolek and Kyle Zimmer. He was 2-3 with a walk, run, and RBI against them, which is something I truly noted in watching Albies. He does well early in the counts, don’t get me wrong, but he is an absolute treat to watch when the game is on the line or he’s worked the count deep and every pitch matters. He steps up his game to a challenge and really plays well.
Fielding/Base Running
This is where there should be no questions whatsoever with Albies. However, you do read a number of off-hand comments about his defense being better suited elsewhere in the infield, especially since the acquisition of Dansby Swanson this winter.
Albies has naturally smooth range, moving to get balls very effortlessly, which could be part of the issue people have with seeing his value – he makes it look TOO easy. Much like a certain former Braves shortstop that was dealt this winter, Albies frequently gets to ball in a natural movement that most guys would have to dive or leap for, so his lack of needing to dive takes away some from what is truly impressive defense that he is playing. He really covers ground well going to his glove side, allowing him to cover well up the middle. His arm is also underrated in that while he doesn’t have an Andrelton Simmons arm, he does have a very accurate arm, and he has a good idea of when to pocket a ball due to not having a chance rather than throwing an erratic, rushed throw.
Albies has some tremendous natural instincts on the base paths. He really did well going for third base on his triples, many of them gap shots that would have been easy stand-up doubles for most hitters. Instead, he breaks tremendously well out of the box and has a good instinct about cutting the bases to give him a shot on any ball that splits the outfielders of reaching third base, which is a huge weapon. While he was caught stealing in 8 of his 37 attempts, which is a solid, but not great 78% rate, I did notice that in going back to his caught stealing that he was caught 4 times on a missed hit-and-run, which is a different situation as a runner than a straight steal, so I have trouble ripping on Albies there.
Next: 2016 outlook
Video
Ozzie Albies 2016 Outlook
The acquisition of Swanson leads to an interesting quagmire for the 2016 season for Albies and the Braves. It’d make sense for him to start out at Carolina, but that’d also be the most natural starting spot for Swanson to start 2016 as well. With both elite prospects that play the same position currently, it’d make sense to do one of two things: move one to prepare for the future and move them up together, or stagger them to allow them both to keep playing shortstop until one definitively shows that he is the long-term answer at the position over the other. I do think the Braves have been a bit scared by the tremendous drop in value that Jose Peraza experienced after moving off of shortstop (much of it valid loss of value due to real defensive issues, but still), and it’d be more likely they do the latter of the two options, in my opinion.
Next: Braves Top 100 Prospects Updated
With his excellent moves to his glove side and his accurate arm, Albies is probably best suited for shortstop or second base, while Swanson is likely best suited to move to third base if he moves off short due to his strong arm and good glove side range. I’ve been a big fan of Albies since the first video I got to see of him in late 2014, and he’s still my #2 prospect for a reason. I think he’ll have an excellent career ahead of him, likely working from Carolina to Misssissippi this year and showing up in Atlanta late in 2017. At the plate, I see a ton of Jose Altuve in his approach, especially in the utilization of speed and gap line drives to generate batting average in their offensive game. Defensively, he reminds me a ton of a former pint-sized Brave that was a pretty vital part to the start of the 1990s Atlanta Braves run due almost exclusively to his defense, Rafael Belliard. The combination of a Belliard glove and Altuve bat is a pretty incredible possible future combination.