Tomahawk Take’s 2016 Top 20 Atlanta Braves Prospects: #20-16

Mar 21, 2015; Clearwater, FL, USA; A general view of the official major league baseball prior to the game between the Toronto Blue Jays and Philadelphia Phillies at Bright House Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Tomahawk Take’s #20 Atlanta Braves prospect Ricardo Sanchez

– by Alan Carpenter, Tomahawk Take Editor

Who He Is

Ricardo Sanchez is a 5’11″/170 lb left-handed pitcher will be 19 years old on April 11th.  He hails from Puerto Cabello, Venezuela and was signed by the Angels in 2013 for a bonus purported to be $580,000.

At the time of his signing, Sanchez was already throwing 90 mph with projectable curve (future grade: 60) and change-up offerings.  In January 2015, the Braves acquired Sanchez for two minor-leaguers:  third baseman Kyle Kubitza and relief pitcher Nate Hyatt.  He was very recently profiled here as well as Ben’s #38-ranked prospect.

His 2015

According to Bill Ballew of Baseball America, the Braves opted to limit Sanchez’ innings in 2015 “as a precautionary move” (presumably related to a fear of possible injury or at least overuse).  In 2014 he threw 39 innings; in 2015 it was 40.

After coming to the Braves, he was assigned to Class A Rome and averaged close to a strikeout per inning… with several walks issued as well.  A deeper look at his game logs shows that during his last 3 starts before being shut down, he walked 11 in 11 innings.  In fact, one game prior to that he walked 1 batter over 6 innings in what appeared to be a brilliant outing. Before that, walks were not a serious problem for him.

So it’s certainly possible that his ‘control issues’ might have had an underlying cause, and ending Sanchez’ season in July may have been a good idea period.  Hopefully this hiccup was nothing more than the right calf strain that sidelined him for the month of May.

In this video (by Braves watcher David Lee), you can see that Sanchez’ curveball – when under control – has some serious bite to it.  Clearly that’s what makes the scouts optimistic about his future.

2016 Projection and Future

Sanchez has been given fairly lofty rankings by the prospect observers in the industry.  BaseballAmerica touts him as the 25th-best left-handed pitching prospect overall (and the 5th best Brave, by the way).  The Braves are obviously high on his arm, though some other sources – such as fangraphs – are not as bullish.  I tend to agree.

We should know a bit more after 2016.  Control might be an issue, but between his age and lack of game time, it would not be terribly surprising.  After 2 seasons of low impact workload, the Braves should start ramping him up… at least 60 innings, perhaps a bit more if he can take it.  And that leads to this:

My own biggest concern with Sanchez is his size.  There’s not very many starting pitchers with 90+ mph stuff that are under 6 feet tall.  The physics are simply against them.  J.R. Graham is a recent example of one whose shoulder betrayed him as he continued to add innings to it.  It would be really helpful for Sanchez if he’d simply grow 2-3 more inches (yeah, like he can control that).

Failing that, I expect Sanchez could end up in a major league bullpen since he seems to have the ‘stuff’ to be able to handle a fireman’s role.  It’s just the physical rigors of starting and going deep into games that concerns me about him going forward.

Next: Prospect Number 19

Sanchez should probably start again at Rome, but could move up to High-A Carolina quickly if all goes well.  His advancement may be limited as much by the myriad of pitchers in front of him as his age and innings limitations.

19. Rio Ruiz

– by Alan Carpenter, Tomahawk Take Editor

Who He Is

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Rio Ruiz will be just 22 years old in May and is a lefty-hitting third baseman currently at AA Mississippi.  He was born in Covina, California and was originally selected in the 4th round of the 2012 draft by the Houston Astros.

Ruiz was part of the January 2015 Evan Gattis trade that also brought in Mike Foltynewicz and Andrew Thurman to Atlanta.  That news came as a shock to Ruiz, as he tweeted a one-word reaction:  “Bummer”.  Nonetheless, prior acquisitions by the Astros made them believe that Ruiz was tradable, and the Braves were happy to bring him in.

His 2015

Ruiz was challenged in 2015 as a young player in a new pitchers’ league.  It did not go very well for him other than a torrid stretch in August.  He finished the year hitting .233, though kept his strikeout numbers in an acceptable range (under 20%) and maintained his usual patience plate approach (13% walks).  This contrasts sharply with a .293 average in 2014 with 11 homers and an .823 OPS.

This fangraphs video shows Ruiz hitting as an Astro.  He appears to be heavier in this 2014 footage than when I saw him at Mississippi late in 2015.

My own concern is not his bat – that will come around in due course – but it’s his glove.  In 2015, Ruiz was credited with 16 errors, tied for the Mississippi Braves’ team lead with shortstop Emerson Landoni.  I do not have information about the details on these errors, but noticed what seemed to be a slow-reaction time to balls hit in his direction.  Again:  he’s just 21 and playing ‘ahead of schedule’.

Of note: while he committed 20 errors in 2013 with the High-A Quad Cities club for Houston, there was a kid by the name of Carlos Correa standing at shortstop beside him who tallied 15 errors.  And there was this Andrelton Simmons character who chalked up 28 errors for Lynchburg in 2011.  So maybe I should just withhold further defensive judgments on Ruiz at this time.

2016 Projection and Future

Fangraphs likes this young hot-corner man, giving him excellent future grades for most tools (50 or 55 across the board, excepting speed).  Some critics have been concerned about his ability to hit to all fields and to exhibit ‘game power’, though I personally saw signs that he might be shaking off those concerns as of late in his 2015 year.  Ruiz will be susceptible to the double play due to his lack of foot speed – 30 combined GIDP in 2014-15.

Next: Prospect Number 18

It is likely that Ruiz starts at Mississippi again this season, with a possible move-up if he starts well.  After a year of acclimation to the league, the new organization, and additional experience, I would anticipate that he could bust out strongly this season.  At that point, it becomes a contest to see who the better 3B prospect is:  Ruiz or Austin Riley.

18. Ryan Weber

– by Alan Carpenter, Tomahawk Take Editor

Who He Is

We profiled Ryan Weber just a few days ago, in the course of proposing that he might have events converge to allow him to join the Atlanta rotation in April.  For that reason, we’ll defer details to that report and just hit a couple of highlights here.

Want a little nostalgia? Here’s an interesting video – Ryan Weber as a high school pitcher from 2008.  What’s more interesting is that this video was shot by Kiley McDaniel for SabreScouting.com… yes, the Kiley McDaniel who’s now a member of the Braves Front Office.

A more modern video of Weber’s first start is available to see here.  Great movement, great location, lots of grounders and fooled batters.  This is who Ryan Weber is.

His 2015

When you’re a 22nd round pick, nobody puts you on prospect lists.  When you’re 25 years old and in your seventh professional season – yet still not on the team’s 40-man roster – it almost always means that you aren’t considered a long-term asset to the organization.

All of that changed in 2015 for Ryan Weber.  No, not because he had a breakout year.  Yeah, you could say his ERA dropped noticeably – especially in AAA (2.21 in 73 innings) – but ERA isn’t as significant a stat in the lower minors.

Ryan Weber got to the majors by continuing to consistently do what he’s been doing at every single stop along the way:  by throwing his pitches where he wanted them, keeping hitters from elevating the ball, and by making the hitters hit the ball… usually weakly.

Ryan Weber got to the majors by doing this enough times to get noticed.

2016 Projection and Future

Now the question is whether Weber can stick in the majors. The Braves have brought in a lengthy list of veteran starters to compete for jobs.  Weber – now that he is on the 40-man roster – should have a better-than-average shot at making the team just on that basis alone.  However, he does have minor league options, so he will have to earn the slot.

Of course, “earning it” is pretty much what he’s had to do since being drafted in 2009.

Of concern:  despite Weber’s seemingly easy throwing motion, he has been sidelined with the dreaded-sounding “elbow strain” injuries:  almost consecutively in 2011 and again in late 2014.  This would tend to explain his lower-than-might-be-expected innings counts.

Next: Prospect Number 17

If Weber does make the rotation, he won’t finish the year:  20-24 starts could be his limit, but that would allow for look-ins with others, and that’s okay.  There’s no reason to push him anywhere near 200 innings this season… or next.

16. Chris Ellis

– by Alan Carpenter, Tomahawk Take Editor

Who He Is

Another native of Braves Country, Chris Ellis was born in Birmingham, AL and was drafted out of U. Mississippi in 2014 by the Angels in the 3rd round.  He’s the “other” pitcher that the Braves received in the Andrelton Simmons deal from November 2015, and comes back “home” to join the Braves this week for his first Disney World Spring.

A right-hander, Ellis stands 6’5″/205 and is 23½ years old – almost identical in size to John Gant and just 6 weeks younger.

Ellis had an unusual path:  he was a relief pitcher for the Rebels for 2 years before they gave his a chance to start as a junior.  Scouts like his fastball and changeup, with his curve being a bit inconsistent, but with potential.

His 2015

Ellis quickly rose to the AA level with the Angels – that’s partly because of his age and partly because their farm is under-going the baseball equivalent of a famine.  It is the worst in baseball, bar none.

That said, he seemed to hold his own over 26 starts and 140 innings at both A+ and AA levels in 2015… a big workload for someone who hasn’t pitched that much.  As I look through his 2015 game logs for signs of tiring, though, I don’t really see it.  Ellis got rocked in his last outing, but was fairly consistent despite that.

Ellis’ control did leave him once getting to AA:  43 walks against 62 K’s in 78 innings for the Arkansas Travelers of the Texas League.  He was much better than that in the California League, so that may have been partly a matter of changing levels.  Of perhaps a bit more concern is a consistently elevated BABIP-against:  close to .300 in both leagues, so hitting contact is fairly consistent, though that is said not knowing much about the defense behind him.

Ellis’ delivery seems simple and repeatable, and those traits should certainly help him.  Some video of him is available here and (better) here.

2016 Projection and Future

The Braves will have the luxury of not pushing Ellis, who might have been forced up to AAA with the Angels.  He should begin with Mississippi this season and that will allow him to work with some better-pitching teammates in a so-called ‘pitchers league.’  I do believe he has a solid toolbox to work with, and should be able to improve quickly.  I do not see him as an early call-up candidate – that could be 2 years down the line, or it is possible that Ellis might be included in yet another trade, given Atlanta’s depth at the position.  That would not be a bad career path, as he could be an end-of-the-rotation candidate for multiple teams… but that could be tough with the Braves until he can get a bit better command of his pitches.

Then again… he’s still learning this ‘starter thing.’

Next: Spring Training TV Schedule

Tomorrow, we will address the #15-11 prospects, and Benjamin Chase will also have a write-up on Max Povse, Ben’s #39 prospect in the Atlanta Braves system in his Top 100 Braves prospect rankings that he did in October and then updated in January.