The MLB Qualifying Offer Blues

Are the Players Getting a Raw Deal?

All of the talk is about how these poor players are being denied a chance to earn the money they deserve by the teams making that mean old qualifying offer. The rationale is that by being denied the right to get exactly what they want teams are somehow damaging a player’s earning power so let’s examine that.

Dexter Fowler

Fowler was projected to have earned a four year – $65M contract that the QO would reduce by $9M to a $56M; an AAV of about $16M but I think that’s high for this off season.  Fowler is at best a league average defender who strikes out a lot but will hit 15 or so homers a year if he stays healthy and that’s the big if.

Last season he played 156 games marking the second year he’s played more than 132 since 2011. He plays this coming season at age 30 and 130 games is a realistic expectation for this year. That would mean about 12 homers and near 2 WAR – any version. I know they keep pushing the theoretical value of one WAR up but no one actually gets paid at that level yet.

Had he returned to the Cubs and had a year like the last one he would have earned the $15.8M and set himself up to get a four year contract near $16M next year.  That would be awfully close to five year and $80M and not a penny lost with a chance to be part of Cubs history.

Next: Yovani should have stayed at home