Atlanta Braves Top 100 Prospects – #21 Andrew Thurman Scouting Report
Atlanta Braves Right Hander Andrew Thurman
Who Is He?
Thurman was a 2nd round selection from University of California-Irvine by the Houston Astros in 2013. He was not even selected out of high school, so many viewed his selection as a “signability” pick to allow the Astros to overpay top pick Mark Appel. In his draft season, the Astros sent him to the New York Penn League Tri-City team where he appeared in 12 games, making 5 starts and throwing 39 2/3 innings. He accumulated a 3.86 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, and 11/43 BB/K ratio.
The Astros moved Thurman to their A-level Quad Cities team in the Midwest League. He struggled with consistency, producing a 5.40 ERA over 26 appearances, 20 starts, throwing 115 innings with a 1.41 WHIP and 40/107 BB/K.
Next: Thurman's scouting report
Thurman was viewed as the “throw in” piece to the Evan Gattis deal between the Astros and Braves in the 2014-2015 offseason, and he came out to start 2015 like he was the jewel of the deal. The Braves started him at high-A Carolina, and before the bus crash, Thurman was looking like an excellent pitcher, with a 2.51 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, and a 7/23 BB/K ratio over 32 1/3 IP. Heck, his last three starts before the crash totaled 16 1/3 innings, 1 earned run, and a 4/14 BB/K ratio. His injuries from the crash kept him off the mound for nearly 2 months, and he didn’t return to Carolina for over two months. He then made 5 starts for Carolina that were widely varied due to his injury recovery before the Braves promoted him to AA Mississippi to end the season. His overall numbers combined were 19 games, 18 of them starts, with a 4.12 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, and 28/66 BB/K ratio over 89 2/3 innings. The Braves sent Thurman to the Arizona Fall League to attempt to make up for the innings he missed on the season, but he was still obviously injured and exhausted, and his results showed it as he allowed 11 earned runs in 7 innings while walking 5 and striking out 7, all thrown in relief.
Andrew Thurman Scouting Report
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I watched six of Thurman’s starts to get a good view of his before and after crash results. Over those starts, Thurman put up a 4-2 record, 2.60 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, and a 6/24 BB/K ratio over 34 2/3 innings.
Thurman is listed as 6’3 and 225 pounds, and that looks accurate. He’s stocky, but in a muscular way, not in bad weight. His motion has a bit on oddity that could lead some hitters to struggle with their timing. When he brings his left leg up to his letters in his motion, rather than going directly to home plate with it, he moves his lead leg more slowly to the landing point before then quickly firing toward home plate. As a former power lifter, this motion quickly struck me as something very inspired in power lifting where a lifter will move the weight properly and carefully through the motion of a lift until the point of explosion, where the finish of the lift comes very quickly. Anyone who’s seen a video of one of those high-level power lifters squatter in excess of 700 pounds will notice this slow-down, explode-up motion.
Even with his timing quirk, Thurman has a very repeatable and easy motion that leaves his arm slot between 3/4 and over-the-top. There were reports that Thurman experienced a spike in velocity due to power lifting, and you can see this in his motion, as he is very focused in utilizing his legs in his motion to generate both velocity and movement. He does end up in very good position to field at the end of every pitch.
Thurman features a four-pitch mix with a fastball that sits 91-94 and can touch as high as 96. He sat more frequently in the 92-94 range before the crash, but by the time he finished his season in the AFL, his peak was that same 94 rather than the top of his typical range. He works with a change up that sits in the 80-83 mph range, a slider that can range from 78-84, and a curve that sits 76-78 when it’s working best, but more in the 73-76 range by the end of the 2015 season when he was visibly exhausted.
Thurman’s fastball has some natural glove-side movement, and it’s definitely most effective when thrown in the lower third of the zone. He does get a number of swinging strikes with the pitch to righties by throwing it up on the outside edge of the zone, though. The change is definitely Thurman’s most frequently used off-speed pitch, and he gets some interesting movement with it. While he gets similar glove side run to his fastball, he also gets some late sink on the pitch. The slider is his most utilized breaking ball, and it has very good dual-plane movement when he’s on, dropping down and in on a right-handed batter. The curve is more of a hard breaker, not a big slow curve. It has a quick loop to it, but it’s definitely much more effective between the belt and knees.
Next: 2016 outlook
Late in the season, it was obvious the exhaustion the year had brought to Thurman. His delivery lost some of that consistency. He (to me, at least) very noticeably moved quicker toward the plate. That slow-then-fast delivery seen early in the season that was so successful was simply not there, and it seemed the more steady the speed of his delivery, the more erratic his pitching got, as he hung sliders and missed frequently with his bread and butter pitch, his change up. I was highly questionable of the decision to send Thurman to Arizona as I’d seen a couple late starts and he looked gassed then, but the Braves organization felt differently.
Andrew Thurman 2016 Outlook
Thurman in April and early May had me thinking future ace. The start that really got me was his August 2nd start for Carolina at Wilmington, which was after he had returned from the injury. He went 7 inning, allowing just one hit and no other base runners, striking out 7. More than anything, he worked extremely fast and was in complete control of the game all game long. However, his next start against Potomac was a completely different story, and it just never got back the rest of the season.
Thurman has some of the most intriguing stuff in the system with a very basic mix, but some interesting upside in them as he was a late bloomer as far as his velocity goes. That velocity spike is something he’s still working to control and command, and he’s worked some late break into his fastball when he is going well.
Next: Braves Top 100 Prospects Updated
I would wager you’ll see Thurman in Mississippi in 2016 to start the season, but he may end up being a guy who is working in a tandem with someone, something that the Braves may make use of in the lower levels to ensure innings on some of their younger arms. I’ve been a huge supporter of Thurman, and I think he’s got a world of upside left, but he’s also 24, so he’s got some work to do to get there in a “good” age. This year could be a very important year for him in his development. He would have a very good pitch mix to move to the bullpen if that ended up being his future destination.