Atlanta Braves Could Give Ryan Weber His Shot
So How’d That Work Out?
Weber was started in 5 Fall games: three with good results, 1 not so good, and 1 forgettable. The most impressive part is that his best outing was his last – coming against the Nationals just after getting hammered by Miami:
That line against the Nats? 7 innings, 1 home run allowed among 5 hits, 0 walks, and 10 strikeouts.
Nice way to finish the year – and make sure the coaches remember your name. Just as importantly, he remains on the 40-man roster. And that could be key to what happens in March.
Weber isn’t overpowering anyone. Not that doing so always matters. He’s got a sinker/change/curve combination that run at 90, 82, and 77 mph, respectively. But he gets away with this via pinpoint control, staying low in the zone – or out of it – and away from hitters on both sides of the plate.
These charts, from BrooksBaseball.net, reminded me of someone else. And indeed, when I looked at Tom Glavine‘s charts (flipped, as he’s a lefty), the profiles were remarkably similar… even as both pitchers tend to try and sneak in an inside pitch occasionally. The interesting part is that both do/did this vs. Right-handed hitters.
Weber’s sinker is his pre-dominant pitch… by a fair margin: 60% vs. roughly 20% each for his Changeup and Curve. However, in that Nationals game, the Curve was bumped up to 30% usage (10% for the changeup). That had to be part of a pre-game plan… and it indeed seemed to work for him.
How well does this plan work? It was only 5 starts and 28 innings, but Weber’s Ground Ball percentage was at 64%… easily the best of the starters (next closest was Williams Perez at 50% [I’m not counting Cahill’s 57%]). Weber also kept the ball in the park better than most. His HR-to-Flyball ratio is high, but it’s exactly the flyballs that are so rare in the first place. Even FIP and xFIP (if you look at those numbers) liked him a lot over that month in Atlanta.
Defense will be a factor for Ryan. Without Andrelton Simmons‘ presence, he will have to rely on his whole infield for help since he isn’t a swing-and-miss pitcher. Indeed, of all starters, his contact rate was highest of all. However, it’s the quality of that contact that matters, and opposing BABIP was just .278… lowest on the staff. A .248 Batting Avg. Against rate was even with Teheran, and lower than all others but Shelby Miller‘s .234.
Speculating Ahead
There’s not a lot of certainly about the rotation coming into Spring. Bud Norris, Kyle Kendrick, Jhoulys Chacin, Chris Volstad, and Alexi Ogando were brought in to see if somebody can eat some innings. The rookie prospects are still around – of them, Perez and Wisler are most likely to get rotation slots. Manny Banuelos has a chance depending on his health. Mike Foltynewicz likely will be slow-rolled to the mound after his significant medical bout last Fall.
There are others who could surprise, though I’d have to believe that the Braves would just as soon choose to give Aaron Blair, Sean Newcomb, Tyrell Jenkins, Lucas Sims, and some others a promise of a future trip to Atlanta and not an early arrival. After all, they are supposed to be the good starters long-term, right?
That leaves Ryan Weber with perhaps a chance to compete head-to-head against these veterans for the last 1 or 2 rotation slots. Why? Well, that 40-man roster position might be one big factor: someone like Chacin will actually have to earn a roster slot, for that might mean having to take someone else off.
Beyond that, you’d have to think that Ryan Weber isn’t necessarily in the team’s long-term plans… unless he becomes the second-coming of Greg Maddux [Google up some old photos of Maddux, by the way – their styles are actually similar]. So there’s not going to be any sense of trying to hold him back for service-time considerations or any shenanigans of that sort. He can simply pitch until they tell him to stop. Thus he’s the perfect candidate to go in April.
Next: Another Break-through Candidate
But with his attitude, poise, and results like we saw in September, there’s a fair chance that the Stop Sign might be a long time in coming for Ryan Weber. This could be his break… and don’t be surprised if he doesn’t stick around for a while.