How Can the Atlanta Braves Structure a Deal for Lazarito?

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October 20, 2015; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago Cubs right fielder Jorge Soler (68) hits a single in the fifth inning against the New York Mets in game four of the NLCS at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports /

Doing the Math

When the Red Sox signed Yoan Moncada last year, we got a hint as to some of the rules that might be involved in such deals – rules that the Braves would likely have to take full advantage of.

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Moncada agreed to terms with Boston on February 23rd last year, getting $31.5 million in bonus monies (it’s not like a major league free agent contract, per se, just a bonus for joining the club. The usual scraps of minor league salaries, plus later rules for major leaguers still apply here). The Red Sox then owe him that $31.5 million, plus another $31.5 million to major league baseball for cheating… er, for violating the guidelines of the International market.

So in total: they paid $63 million. Did they just write a whopping big check for that?

I don’t have a specific breakdown of that arrangement, but I do have the rules involved:

"The Red Sox have until July 15 to pay the overage tax and up to three years to pay Moncada’s bonus."

That sounds like 6 months to pay the penalty, with the rest being spreadable. So let’s go ahead and speculate wildly… with numbers involved and everything…

The Structure of an Offer

Excluding Lazarito, here’s what we *believe* might be going on in July.

Atlanta should have something around $4.5 million that they are “allowed” to spend Internationally
SS Kevin Maitan: said to be ready to accept $4.25 million
C Abraham Gutierrez: perhaps $3.25 million
SS Yunior Severino: let’s guess $2 million
4 (pick a number) more unnamed Top 30 teen prospects: guessing $4 million

At this point, these guesses total $13.5 million. The Braves would owe $9 million to MLB in penalties, bringing the total expenditure to $22.5 million in this hypothetical scenario. So far.

Sources are suggesting that it may take $20 million to sign Armenteros. I hope this is wildly high, but for this exercise, we need to pick a number.

Before Lazarito became a thing, I had anticipated that the Braves might be inclined to spend up to $17 million in bonuses. This, of course, depends on the number of willing and gifted recipients, but we think they probably are out there. One of the decisions that Atlanta will have to make in their effort to land Armenteros is whether he is worth (a) up to $40 million by himself ($20 million bonus + $20 million in penalties); and (b) forgoing a chance to sign maybe another ten(?) second- and third-tier players this Summer with the remaining $3.5 million.

Let’s assume that Coppy opts to go for him and that $20 million is the magic signing number.

Now the total expenditure is $63.5 million (the prior $13.5 plus this bonus of $20 million, plus the $20 penalty). Fortunately, that doesn’t all need to be paid at one time as the Red Sox experience shows, so here’s a suggested breakdown:

July 2 – a bunch of players sign… including Lazarito
Terms for Lazarito: $8 million up front; $6 million in 2017; $6 million in 2018 (again: total speculation)
The other teens signed get their $13.5 million on July 2.
Atlanta therefore has to front $21.5 million on July 2.
Atlanta also sends MLB $29 million in penalties due by December 15.
Atlanta pays balance of bonus monies at $6 million per year in 2017 and 2018.

That’s a lot of coin. The Braves can technically afford it, perhaps ‘borrowing’ from next year since they won’t be an International market participant for the next 2 seasons, but only they can make the call as to whether this deep water is safe enough to swim in.

Again: all of these number constitute speculation, but hopefully it is close enough to be illustrative of what might be necessary to make it happen.

UPDATE – REDUCING THE PENALTY:

There is one aspect of MLB International spending that I neglected to discuss above – one that undoubtedly will be part of Coppy’s tricks to maximize Atlanta’s ability to spend this Summer. International bonus pool slots are tradeable among teams.

The Braves have the ability to acquire – from another club – ‘slots’ of bonus monies that can add up to 50% more spending power until the spending cap is reached (each team’s bonus pool is divvied up into 4 ‘slots’, plus a $700K base allocation).

In a scenario in which the Braves start with around $4.5 million to spend, they could theoretically augment this to as much as $6.75 million (these numbers are intentionally on the conservative side – the actual values won’t be known for several more weeks).

Here’s how that might work:

Braves approach 2-3 clubs that cannot spend more than $300K on any player this year… but can resume spending next season.
Braves trade a non-prospect to these clubs… someone that perhaps fills a minor league roster hole for the receiving team… and receives one or more slots in return.
Implicit in this is a handshake agreement to do exactly the reverse deal next year… when the Braves would have expendable slots that their trading partners could use in 2017.

If Atlanta can acquire the maximum $2.25 million in extra bonus space, then their penalty cost would be reduced by the same $2.25 million. In my scenario above, that reduces the penalty payment from $29 million to $26.75 million. Coppy will probably try and do something like this regardless of the outcome of Lazarito negotiations… it’s just a smart thing to do.

The Question of Value

As of today, MLB Pipeline has Lazaro Armenteros ranked 8th among the class of 2015-16 International free agents. 28 of the top 30 are signed, including Christian Pache (14) and Derian Cruz (27) by Atlanta. Scouts seem divided over a couple aspects of Armenteros’ game – notably arm strength and his swing. At 16 years old, the swing issues could likely be corrected, and that could set him up as either a future LF or CF power hitter somewhere in the middle of a lineup.

Is all that worth $40 million? At age 16. A 16-year-old who’s already 6’2″/205. Frankly sounds a lot like Jorge Soler… with speed… and a better glove.

Next: Erick Aybar is Getting Ready for the Next Career Challenge

John Coppolella said he wants to continue to import talent to the team. Personally, this just sounds like too much to spend and too much to risk for one player, but I’m also very glad I don’t get to make the call to spend this amount of someone else’s money.

Let’s hope it’s the Dodgers and Farhan Zaidi instead.

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