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Atlanta Braves Top Draft Options for 2016

By Alan Carpenter

Feb 13, 2014; Bradenton, FL, USA; General view of bats in a bag during the Pittsburgh Pirates first spring training workout at Pirate City. Mandatory Credit: David Manning-USA TODAY Sports
Feb 13, 2014; Bradenton, FL, USA; General view of bats in a bag during the Pittsburgh Pirates first spring training workout at Pirate City. Mandatory Credit: David Manning-USA TODAY Sports /
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Jun 14, 2014; Omaha, NE, USA; Louisville Cardinals right fielder Corey Ray (2) catches the fly ball against the Vanderbilt Commodores during game two of the 2014 College World Series at TD Ameritrade Park Omaha. Vanderbilt won 5-3. Mandatory Credit: Bruce Thorson-USA TODAY Sports
Jun 14, 2014; Omaha, NE, USA; Louisville Cardinals right fielder Corey Ray (2) catches the fly ball against the Vanderbilt Commodores during game two of the 2014 College World Series at TD Ameritrade Park Omaha. Vanderbilt won 5-3. Mandatory Credit: Bruce Thorson-USA TODAY Sports /

More in Depth

  • COREY RAY, Louisville (OF).  55/50/60/50/55 – 55

If Ray backs up his Sophomore season with a Junior year run that matches or exceeds it, then this could be the guy.  He can play any outfield position and is solid across the board with his tools.  He gives me the initial impression of being another Ender Inciarte with some extra pop and excellent defense.  Ray’s overall athleticism should appeal to the Braves.

His 2015 campaign with Louisville went .325/.389/.543/.932 with 11 homers, 56 RBI, 15 doubles, 24 walks and 60 K in 265 AB while going 34/44 in steals.  The most scary number there is the K rate – roughly 21% in college.  It’s acceptable if that number doesn’t go higher, and the rest will definitely play.

  • BUDDY REED, Florida (OF).  50/50/70/60/60 – 55

More from Tomahawk Take

The tool grades actually suggest a higher upside on Reed than with Ray, though the knock on hit is inconsistency at the plate.  He’s a switch hitter and MLB.com suggest that he needs to work on repeating his setup and approach.  The numbers project well if he would do that, but it does sound like he would be more risky than Ray overall.

All that said, his 2015 season was .305/.367/.433/.800 with 4 HR, 47 RBI, 14 2B, 27 BB and 56 K in 282 ABs, which didn’t even make him the best hitter on his own team.  The player on that Florida roster I really want?  J.J. Schwarz… but alas, he’s not draft eligible this year!

  • NICK SENZEL, Tennessee (3B).  55/50/50/55/45 – 50

MLB.com ranks him lower than BA.com, and that could be because he hasn’t established a position.  He DH’d a lot as a freshman, then played a lot at second last year, moving to third base in the fall.  Seems that BA.com like him at third; others eventually stick him in the outfield.  I expect the Braves will pass.

  • KYLE LEWIS, Mercer (OF).    50/60/50/50/50 – 55

Mercer isn’t exactly a hot-bed for college baseball, but Lewis busted out in 2015 after going undrafted out of high school.  If you’re looking for a big power reach in this draft, then Lewis is probably the one as he could have the best home run projection of anyone in the draft.  In 2015 he hit .367 with 17 homers, 19 doubles, a .677 slugging%, .423 OBP, and 56 RBI.  All of that in 54 games/226 AB.  His K rate was manageable (for college) at 16%.

Lewis will not be the most athletic of this group (though he’s 6’4″/195), and it remains to be seen if he will hit outside of his conference.  If the scouts think so (repeating 2015 results may prove this), then with the outfield defenders Atlanta already has, he could be a sleeper pick.

  • BRYAN REYNOLDS, Vanderbilt (OF).  55/45/55/40/55 – 55

Perhaps former teammate Dansby Swanson can give a scouting report here, but the overall impression of Reynolds is that he’s a solid hitter and defender, though much less power.  Combine that with his arm grade, and he sounds like a Todd Cunningham to me, which is likely to leave him on the board after the Braves 3rd pick is made.

  • RYAN BOLDT, Nebraska (OF).  55/40/55/45/50 – 50

Boldt’s power is the equal of Kyle Lewis, though it comes with a price:  high strikeouts.  He will have to improve on contact and average for the Braves to even consider him.

  • RYAN BOLDT, Nebraska (OF).  55/40/55/45/50 – 50

Another hitter who lacks significant power, Boldt profiles as a center fielder… maybe.  He’s not quite as fast as many as lacks the arm for a corner OF position.  Given the Braves’ assets here, I would think they pass on Boldt.

  • NICK BANKS, Texas A&M (OF).  55/50/55/55/50 – 50

Made Team USA last season and led that group in hitting with a .386 average… a team that included Corey Ray and Buddy Reed.  From the sound of the reports, he’s probably a tick below the other athletes in this group, and since Atlanta gets it’s choice, they would probably look elsewhere… unless he’s still hanging around for that 40th (+/-) pick… which isn’t terribly likely.

  • BOBBY DALBEC, Arizona (3B).  45/60/30/60/45 – 50

Dalbec’s power is the equal of Kyle Lewis, though it comes with a price:  high strikeouts.  In fact, the report on him already suggests that he could be an Adam Dunn type of hitter:  walk, strikeout, or a bomb.  He will have to improve on contact and average for the Braves to even consider him.   Most likely destination: a team with a DH.

Special case:  BLAKE RUTHERFORD, Chaminade Prep/California (OF).  55/55/60/50/50 – 55

While he’s a high school hitter, MLB.com places him 7th overall on their board (and their first four are all pitchers).  He’s already 19 years old, which means that he’s not your average high schooler.  He’s currently a CF, but I would doubt that he ultimately sticks there, which makes him a left fielder, and probably not a third overall pick for Atlanta.  He’s probably going to be okay, but doesn’t feel like ‘third pick great’.

Overall Impression of this Class

I am seeing quite a bit of solid depth here, but is there anyone who jumps up and screams “pick me!” at position 3?  At this point, it’s Corey Ray or Kyle Lewis, but truly no one else right now.

While Coppy states that a college bat would be appropriate, I would also expect that there’s another scenario that’s possible:  if either the Reds or Phillies go off the reservation and select someone… odd… then I don’t think that the Braves would hesitate to grab one of the top pitchers available.  Jason Groome (high schooler from NJ) and A.J. Puk are both big (6’6″ and 6’7″) left-handers with mid-90’s gas.

Yeah, I know – we’ve already got a few of those guys around… but they are valuable to stockpile, too, especially if the next Mike Trout isn’t obviously out there.  Given the class’s depth in outfielders and the decent possibility that one or more of them will still be around for the Braves’ second choice (especially given the patterns of draft history), I would expect that Atlanta could go for one of those pitchers if either is still on the board.

Next: Yes, We Do Have Southpaw Standouts

So as of today... which is still quite a distance from Draft Day… I would personally pick Corey Ray in the 3rd position, though I will be watching Lewis’ progress during the Spring.

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