Atlanta Braves Top 100 Prospects In Review
Atlanta Braves – Reviewing the Prospects
In October, after hours upon hours of video, writing, re-writing, re-ordering, and some more video, I released my top 100 list. Then the Braves went and acquired essentially an elite top 10 worth of prospects in the offseason. I thought it would be worthwhile to update the overall list. I’ll start off with the list, then review the newcomers, next those who’ve moved up my list, and then those who’ve fallen down my list since October.
Before we get into the list, I’d like to make an announcement! I will be putting out 3 scouting reports per week until the season starts. I will keep up with any new prospects acquired until spring training starts, but I will also be highlighting guys that I haven’t had a chance to highlight through last season and this offseason so far. In doing this, I realized I haven’t done a write-up on Jose Ramirez, so I’ll have that coming out on Friday. Feel free to comment with any guys you’d enjoy seeing a scouting report on.
The List
Player, Position, Previous Rank, Change
1. Dansby Swanson, SS, NR, —
2. Ozhaino Albies, SS, 1, -1
3. Sean Newcomb, LHP, NR, —
4. Aaron Blair, RHP, NR, —
5. Hector Olivera, 3B/LF, 2, -3
6. Manny Banuelos, LHP, 3, -3
7. Lucas Sims, RHP, 4, -3
8. Tyrell Jenkins, RHP, 5, -3
9. Mallex Smith, CF, 6, -3
10. Touki Toussaint, RHP, 7, -3
11. Austin Riley, 3B, 8, -3
12. Braxton Davidson, RF, 10, -2
13. Kolby Allard, LHP, 11, -2
14. John Gant, RHP, 17, +3
15. Max Fried, LHP, 9, -6
16. Ronald Acuna, CF, 13, -3
17. Mike Soroka, RHP, 15, -2
18. Rio Ruiz, 3B, 14, -4
19. Chris Ellis, RHP, NR, —
20. Casey Kelly, RHP, NR, —
21. Andrew Thurman, RHP, 12, -9
22. Dustin Peterson, LF, 16, -6
23. Juan Yepez, 1B/3B, 18, -5
24. Isranel Wilson, RF, 19, -5
25. Leudys Baez, LF, 27, +2
26. Jonathan Morales, C, 25, -1
27. Luke Dykstra, 2B, 20, -7
28. Daniel Winkler, RHP, 68, +40
29. Derian Cruz, SS, 21, -8
30. Randy Ventura, CF, 24, -6
31. Ryan Weber, RHP, 26, -5
32. Zachary Bird, RHP, 22, -10
33. Lucas Herbert, C, 28, -5
34. William Contreras, C, 29, -5
35. Christian Pache, OF, 35, 0
36. Josh Graham, RHP, 69, +33
37. Connor Lien, RF, 30, -7
38. Ricardo Sanchez, LHP, 31, -7
39. Max Povse, RHP, 33, -6
40. Daniel Castro, IF, 23, -17
41. Brandon Barker, RHP, 47, +6
42. Ray-Patrick Didder, CF, 34, -8
43. Steve Janas, RHP, 36, -7
44. Luis Valenzuela, SS, 37, -7
45. Robert Whalen, RHP, 40, -5
46. Keith Curcio, CF/2B, 54, +8
47. A.J. Minter, LHP, 80, +33
48. Johan Camargo, SS, 32, -16
49. Justin Ellison, LF, 96, +45
50. Seth Webster, RHP, 38, -12
51. Carlos Franco, 3B, 39, -12
52. Collin Yelich, C, 42, -10
53. Ryan Clark, RHP, 65, +12
54. Omar Obregon, 2B, 43, -11
55. Tanner Murphy, C, 84, +29
56. Mauricio Cabrera, RHP, 99, +43
57. Ricardo Rodriguez, C, NR, —
58. Chris O’Dowd, C/RF, 46, -12
59. Jason Hursh, RHP, 44, -15
60. Carlos Castro, 1B, 48, -12
61. Bradley Keller, LF, 49, -12
62. Joseph Odom, C, 53, -9
63. Kurt Hoekstra, SS, 56, -7
64. Anthony Concepcion, LF/1B, 45, -19
65. Alejandro Salazar, SS, 50, -15
66. Jaret Hellinger, LHP, 74, +8
67. Kyle Kinman, LHP, 41, -26
68. Carlos Lopez, RHP, 60, -8
69. Sean Godfrey, LF/CF, 52, -17
70. Caleb Beech, RHP, 71, +1
71. Jose Morel, LF, 57, -14
72. Patrick Weigel, RHP, 98, +17
73. Elias Arias, LF, 58, -15
74. Trevor Belicek, LHP, 63, -11
75. Dian Toscano, LF, 59, -16
76. Chase Johnson-Mullins, LHP, 91, +15
77. Tyler Brosius, RHP, 76, -1
78. Sander Boeldak, LF/RF, 64, -14
79. Matt Withrow, RHP, 95, +16
80. Dilmer Mejia, LHP, 66, -14
81. Wes Parsons, RHP, 73, -8
82. Chad Sobotka, RHP, 93, -11
83. Kelvin Estevez, RF, 86, +3
84. Joseph Daris, LF, 61, -23
85. Alec Grosser, RHP, 82, -3
86. Evan Rutckyj, LHP, NR, —
87. Anthony Guardado, RHP, (114), +27
88. Sean McLaughlin, RHP, 77, -11
89. Jake Lanning, 3B/2B, 72, -17
90. Jose Ramirez, RHP, NR, —
91. Luis Barrios, LHP, (104), +13
92. Ryan Lawlor, LHP, 79, -13
93. Alex Aquino, SS, 78, -15
94. Gilbert Suarez, RHP, (117), +23
95. Jose Pina, LF/RF, 81, -14
96. Luis Gamez, RHP, (123), +27
97. Bradley Roney, RHP, 87, -10
98. Jorge Zavala, RHP, 83, -15
99. Zach Quintana, RHP, 100, +1
100. Trey Keegan, C, 92, -8
Next: New Acquisitions
As we dig into the list, we’ll first look at the new players into the Braves organization…
New Atlanta Braves Prospect Acquisitions
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- Braves News: Braves acquire Diaz, moves around the division, more
- Atlanta Braves 2012 Top Prospects Review: J.R. Graham
The Braves acquired the #1, 3, 4, 19, 20, 57, 86, and 90 prospects this offseason, which is an incredible haul for a poor system, but if you consider that the Braves added those players into an already-solid minor league system, it’s an incredible haul.
Swanson and Blair came over in the Shelby Miller deal and now rank #1 and #4. The Braves got tremendous value in that trade. Swanson has a tremendous amount of projection just months after being the #1 overall pick in the June draft. Blair is knocking on the door of the majors and could be a very good pitcher, with a very high floor and still upside on top of that incredible floor as well.
When the Braves traded Andrelton Simmons, they moved the best defensive shortstop in the game, and they picked up the #3 and #19 prospects on my list in the deal. While I don’t think many will argue on where I place Newcomb, there may be some surprised by where I have Ellis. I watched a number of starts for my write up of Ellis, and I’ve watched a couple more since. I just think his high regard may have come from being a big fish in a shallow pond in the fairly devoid Angels system where he and Newcomb were nearly the only legit prospects left in the system. He’s got some solid pitch ability, don’t get me wrong, but I think if he’s got any sort of elite upside, it’d be as a reliever, as he’s a likely a #4 starter if he remains in the rotation, which isn’t a bad thing either, just not where he’s been getting ranked in a number of other lists.
Kelly and Rodriguez were acquired when the Braves moved Christian Bethancourt, and I think the Braves could have really gotten a steal in both. Rodriguez has elite defensive upside, but he’s very raw and will likely need to climb up the system one step at a time to let the bat develop. Kelly had a very up and down season statistically, but there was a lot of good things to like on tape, and I think the Braves can work with him to build something for sure.
Rutckyj was the Rule 5 pick, and he’ll have to stick as a LOOGY in the bullpen to stay with the squad.
Next: Risers Up the List
Ramirez was acquired by the Braves for a player to be named later, who has been named now as Ryne Harper. Ramirez has some real stuff, and I think you’ll enjoy the write-up on him coming this week. He’s in his third year in a transition to the bullpen, and he’s got the sort of stuff that could become an impact arm in the bullpen.
Prospects That Rose Up the List
So, I’ve got a few different categories of guys who rose up the list – guys who I either saw more video or read more information about, velocity guys, or young guys that I underplayed in the first go-round.
The guys I got more information on include Gant, whose starts were simply more and more impressive as you watch them, Winkler, who got back his secondary stuff as the season closed, which gives hope that he could return to the rotation long-term, Barker, who didn’t have starts of 13 strikeouts or 8 innings with no hits, but he was just consistently good nearly every time out, Clark, who I finally got to see some good video on and is even more impressive than his numbers, and Minter, who I was able to see pre-draft video on and can now get more of the hype. Hitters include Baez, whose stats really don’t do justice to how hard it is to take your eyes off of him on video, Curcio, whose defense at second was much better than advertised and could carry him much more quickly to the majors as a guy who can play middle infield and center field, and Murphy, who has a power bat that could be as much as a 60-65 grade power bat along with his excellent defensive skills behind the plate.
Velocity pitchers were many in the system, and frankly, my admitted bias against relievers had me overlooking a number of guys who were predicted to be relievers before having a chance to get more of an idea on the velo numbers. The Braves have a handful of guys who can legitimately touch triple digits, and that is incredible. Graham is still working on pitching after transitioning from catcher just a couple of seasons ago so his upside is ridiculous, Cabrera popped a ton of eyes in the AFL by popping 103 on multiple radar guns, Weigel kept the high velocity while working from the rotation last season though he may end up in the bullpen soon simply due to overcrowding, Johnson-Mullins has been clocked at 101 from the left hand side, and Withrow doesn’t have his brother’s amazing velocity, but he keeps his velocity through his entire starts.
Next: Fallers Down the List
I underrated young guys in Ellison and Estevez. Estevez has elite defensive upside that was beyond even what I had thought before, but the real guy to watch is Ellison. I get more and more rave reviews from people who’ve seen him in person, saying he could end up the steal of the 2015 draft when all is said and done, and yes, more so than Riley. Hellinger I had rated before, but I just keep getting good reports, but Barrios, Guardado, Suarez, and Gamez were all guys that I got more good reports on stuff from those who had eyes on. I got some good video on all four now as well, and they definitely belong on the list, though each has plenty to work on in pro ball still, which is why they’re still at the back-end of the list.
Prospects That Fell Down the List
I’ve received some bad words on Fried and his recovery, but not enough to make me panic, which is why I still have him as high as I do. Thurman, on the other hand, dropped through nothing he did wrong, more that the Braves acquired a number of guys similar to him this offseason, so he’s become fairly redundant in the system, as much as I may like him. Bird I had higher on potential, but watching more on him, he’s still throwing and not pitching, and he’s got work to do in that respect.
While he’s got a decent floor, Castro’s not really got much upside beyond what he’s already shown, so I moved him down accordingly. Camargo really struggled in what I saw of his AFL time on defense, and that’s supposed to be his calling card. Arias is just so raw at this point, and he’s already 21, so he’s not really at an age where he can be that raw anymore. Godfrey and Daris are both old for their current development, which worries me because both has a long way to go before he’s a major leaguer.
Then we have relievers – Hursh, Kinman, and Zavala. In my defense, B-Ref had another player linked into Kinman’s stat line, so while I was impressed with the video I saw of him, I thought he had a lot more stat line than he truly did. This is absolutely make or break for Hursh. Zavala still has maybe as nasty stuff as there is in the entire system, majors included.
I also dropped a couple of my “cheese ball” guys down a few spots, knowing I had probably given them too rosy a view in the first place, which is why Webster and Franco bumped down. I still like them both plenty, but I wanted to try to be more real with where they should rank.