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From the Atlanta Braves’ Viewpoint: the Off-season in Review (Phillies)

By Alan Carpenter

Oct 1, 2015; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia Phillies third baseman Maikel Franco (7) jokes around with third baseman Andres Blanco (4) in a game against the New York Mets at Citizens Bank Park. The Phillies won 3-0. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
Oct 1, 2015; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia Phillies third baseman Maikel Franco (7) jokes around with third baseman Andres Blanco (4) in a game against the New York Mets at Citizens Bank Park. The Phillies won 3-0. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports /
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Starting Over

Philadelphia is late to the rebuilding table.  The Atlanta Braves have clearly beaten the Phillies – and everyone else, frankly – in getting the best prospects available via trades.  But it has started.

A lot of this is due to Amaro:  he waited… and waited… and continued to hold onto his best trade chips until they were worth little for future growth:

  • SS Jimmy Rollins (with $1 million) – received RHP Zach Eflin and LHP Tom Windle.  Eflin ranks as their #9 prospect today.  Windle is 17th.
  • 2B Chase Utley (with $4 million) – received utility man Darnell Sweeney (ranked #11 today) and RHP John Richy (ranked #29).
  • Closer Papelbon – received #15 prospect Nick Pivetta.

He did better with Cole Hamels, getting several of the Rangers’ best prospects – they are now ranked #3, #4, #5, and #25, plus another unranked player.

With only closer Ken Giles remaining to work with, new GM Klentak got a solid, though high-risk haul from Houston.  Struggling former 1st overall pick Mark Appel is the headliner (#2 on Philly’s chart), along with Panamanian Jonathan Arauz (not yet ranked, but will be).  They also received Vincent Velasquez, who projects to be in the opening day rotation, former Brave Brett Oberholzer (who could also start), #8 prospect Thomas Eschelman (#13), and pitcher Harold Arauz.

All of this will help, but in total, there is simply no comparison to the prospect charts that the Braves are currently looking at.

Philadelphia will have the #1 draft pick this Summer, and the #1 International market slot monies… but they need a lot of help and quickly.  I would definitely expect a college player drafted in that first slot – probably one of the top pitchers.

2016 Looks Brutal

“At least we still have Philadelphia”.  That’s the refrain that Braves fans will undoubtedly be saying a lot this season.  While Atlanta looks to have a pitching staff that will undergo significant bruising at times and an offense that will still struggle to score runs, the Phillies will be on an entirely lower tier from that.  It could end up being historically bad for them.

I truly don’t like the projections that we see at this time of year – many of them are simply fantasies.  Yet, I will occasionally use them to draw comparisons from one club to another, and this is one of those times.

  • Atlanta’s offensive output, as seen by Steamer for 2016:  12.3 WAR among the top producers; 10.8 overall
  • Philadelphia’s offensive output, via Steamer for 2016:  9.1 WAR among the top producers; 7.5 overall

Okay, yes:  both are bad… but to suggest that the Braves would be 30% better than Philadelphia tells you all you need to know about the Phillies’ club.

  • 1B:  Ryan Howard… one… more… season.
  • 2B:  Cesar Hernandez
  • SS:  Freddie Galvis, though #1 prospect J.P Crawford should be in the house by Summer… he will be a Jimmy Rollins clone in many ways.
  • 3B:  Maikel Franco.  Will he match a nice 2015 this season?  Will be tough with no support, but Steamer thinks he’s their best (only) weapon).
  • C:  Looks like Cameron Rupp along with Carlos Ruiz.
  • LF/CF/RF:  I won’t even bother with names – it will be a mix-and-match affair, though Boujos will be in the mix somewhere.
  • Rotation:  Their #1 pitcher is now Jeremy Hellickson.  Seriously.  Charlie Morton is #2.  Aaron Nola (who could be #1 soon), then EIckhoff and Velasquez.
  • Bullpen:  Without Giles or Papelbon, and with no off-season upgrades, this could be ugly as well.  Of the 18 relievers trotted out in 2015, 14 had ERA’s of 3.00 and above.  2 are no longer on the team and one threw only 3 innings and signed to play in Italy for this year.

Next: 2 of 3 Johnsons are now back for 2016

It will be a rough year in Atlanta, but nothing like the Phillies’ fans will have to endure.  100 losses seems a virtual lock.  I almost feel sorry for them.

But not quite.

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