From the Atlanta Braves’ Viewpoint: the Off-season in Review (Nationals)

Sep 23, 2015; Washington, DC, USA; Washington Nationals relief pitcher Jonathan Papelbon (58) argues with second base umpire Alan Porter (64) after being ejected from the game during the ninth inning against the Baltimore Orioles at Nationals Park. Baltimore Orioles defeated Washington Nationals 4-3. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

A Very Bizarre Off-Season, Indeed

I really have to wonder if Mike Rizzo hadn’t really put his heart and soul into planning the off-season, on figuring he might be out of work.  Instead, Rizzo and Company are still at the helm while Matt Williams and his staff were sacked. But that doesn’t remove that vague vibe of lack of direction that I’m feeling.

When you set the off-season acquisitions alongside the losses for the Nationals… you are left with a pained expression on your face while trying to get some answers to questions that simply aren’t coming.

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A few bullet points:

• Yes, Washington still has their MVP, Bryce Harper (9.5 WAR).  Beyond that, they had…
  • Danny Espinosa (2.3 WAR, 2nd on the team).  He’s now buried on the depth chart.
  • Yunel Escobar (2.1 WAR).  Traded to the Angels.
  • Ian Desmond (1.7).  Bad season for him in 2015, but lost to free agency.
  • Denard Span (1.4).  Hip surgery; lose to free agency.
  • four of their top five offensive performers… gone or replaced
• Apparently Rizzo wanted Bud Black to lead their team.  They offered him the job, but low-balled him on a contract.  He balked.  Baker ultimately accepted their offer.
• This is hardly the first such problem that the ownership of the Nationals has had in both luring and keeping managers.  See this report for a detailed treatment of that situation.
• They had a serious issue with closer Jonathan Papelbon.  He’s still on the club.
• They have an issue with former closer Dren Storen (i.e., the issue being that Papelbon exists).  Storen is still on the club.
• David Carpenter pitched well in relief for them.  He’s now a Brave after having been DFA’d.
• Three other bullpen members (Thornton, Stammen, and Janssen) are gone.  Fister, too, if you count his relief appearances.  Thus I have no idea what to expect out of middle relief for the Nationals this season.
• They made some sort of play to acquire Aroldis Chapman – yes, a third closer.  That didn’t happen.
• They actually had a deal ready to roll to acquire Brandon Phillips from the Reds.  That didn’t happen.

The Nationals have also been tied to talks with a bunch of free agents – unclear how many of these are actually true and how many are wishful thinking on the part of Nats’ fan sites.  The latest involves Gerardo Parra.

In recent days, they finally plugged their second base hole with the Mets’ Daniel Murphy.  That could work to replace Espinosa, though it is also reasonably possible that as Murphy slides from the Mets to the Nats, both teams could end up worse for the effort.  Murphy (almost 31) seems to be starting into a slow decline, while it’s always hard to gauge how a player (Neil Walker in this case) will perform when going to New York City.

So it appears that Washington is set to go with top rookie Trea Turner at shortstop, Michael Taylor in CF (perhaps with Parra as his backup), continue to have Jayson Werth and Ryan Zimmerman at LF/1B respectively.  Anthony Rendon will man 3rd base and Murphy will handle 2nd.

Steamer is bullish on newcomer Trea Turner, expecting 1.9 WAR with a .283 average and 8 HR… interesting given that he hit just 9 in 2015 across 3 levels of play (albeit in 133 games).

Wilson Ramos and Jose Lobaton will catch – though in 2015, the team saw essentially zero production out of this pair.

So on offense, the Nationals have to hope that Turner, Murphy, and Harper carry the load… and hope that Rendon can rebound with something approaching what he did in 2014.  If not?  Stephen Drew will back him up.

Pitching

It is difficult to assess the Nationals’ pitching corps, given that the 2-N Zimmermann is now gone (but after a down season) and Stephen Strasburg is entering his “walk” year.  Likewise, Gio Gonzalez is starting a season in which he faces a team option ($12 million) for 2017.

But Zimmermann is gone, Fister is gone, and unless they sign another free agent, their rotation stands on a thin lineup of Scherzer, Strasburg, Gio, Tanner Roark, and Joe Ross.

Before that attrition, the Nats had the 7th-best ERA in baseball; 6th in the ML.  I can’t see an improvement in that for 2016, given the losses.  When you add the bullpen turmoil, it’s just not a healthy situation at this time, and it could cost them dearly.

Next: The Braves: Decisions, Decisions

Right now, the Nationals – for all of their payroll wealth and obvious talent – appear to be leaning in a dysfunctional direction. They are patched together for now, but none of the actual issues (the bullpen especially; rotation depth) have been resolved.

They say that winning cures all, but if they manage to start the 2016 season on the wrong foot, things could spiral out of control for them.  If they actually do end up with one or two key injuries… that could be enough to make it happen.  The key on offense is Rendon.  The key in the rotation is Strasburg.  The key in the bullpen is whether Papelbon tries to kill anybody.

For now:  you’ve got to still say they should be a winning team in this punchless NL East… and probably several games above the mediocre finish of a year ago… maybe 90-62, which could still be enough to win this division.