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From the Atlanta Braves’ Viewpoint: the Off-season in Review (Marlins)

By Alan Carpenter

Nov 2, 2015; Miami, FL, USA; Miami Marlins manager Don Mattingly (center) talks with president baseball operations Michael Hill (left) and president David Samson (right) after a press conference at Marlins Park. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports
Nov 2, 2015; Miami, FL, USA; Miami Marlins manager Don Mattingly (center) talks with president baseball operations Michael Hill (left) and president David Samson (right) after a press conference at Marlins Park. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports /
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Oct 1, 2015; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; Miami Marlins starting pitcher Jose Fernandez (16) looks on during the first inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
Oct 1, 2015; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; Miami Marlins starting pitcher Jose Fernandez (16) looks on during the first inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports /

Oh, There Were Noises, Though…

This isn’t to say that the Marlins didn’t try.  In fact, they were linked to a number of teams – notably the Dodgers and Diamondbacks – in talks for their ace pitcher Jose Fernandez.  But this is one of the cases in which the Braves themselves might have spiked the punch for everyone’s MLB parties this Fall.

Fernandez is still just 23 years old.  When healthy, he’s been really, really good.  He’s finally arbitration-eligible this season for the first time, thus still has three more years of control available to his team – the same as Shelby Miller.  But as an ‘ace’-level pitcher, the Marlins rightfully wanted more – more than the Braves got for Miller, which turned out to be a historically strong return.  But just like when the buying field is reduced to just a handful of big spenders when the top free agents are looking for contracts, only a very few teams have a rich enough farm system to be able to sacrifice enough talent to satisfy the Marlins’ Front Office.

Hence, Fernandez is still in Miami.  And that’s probably fine by them… there is still time to trade him at some future point – if he stays healthy.

But why trade him?  Because the Marlins could use quite a bit of help, and he’s their best trade chip. While the Braves netted top prospects for Miller, the Marlins were looking for top major league youngsters for Fernandez – players that could help them now.  But neither the Dodgers nor Diamondbacks were interested in ripping out a large part of what they expect to be their own keys to success for a player even of Fernandez’ caliber.

Miami Marlins center fielder Marcell Ozuna (13). Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
Miami Marlins center fielder Marcell Ozuna (13). Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports /

Then there was the Marcell Ozuna saga.   This was just weird.

Ozuna is a quite capable hitter and center fielder.  He is young (25) and has power (23 homers in 2014 – even before they bring the fences in this year).  He isn’t even arbitration-eligible until next season.  But there were some issues between him, his agent (Scott Boras), and the Marlins.

There was a demotion to AAA.  There was an allegation that Ozuna’s major league service time was being manipulated to keep him from being a ‘Super-2’ player.  There were rumors that the Marlins didn’t like his attitude.  Between mid-November and the Winter Meetings, there was strong interest in Ozuna from other teams (up to 10 of them, including the Braves).  All the while, the Marlins brass denied that he was being shopped (any of this sound familiar?)… and indeed, he’s still on the club.

My personal thought is that when the Dodgers decided that keeping Joc Pederson was better for them than obtaining Jose Fernandez, then talk of trading Ozuna likewise faded.  So now the two parties will just have to co-exist… and the new fences in Miami will probably only help the Marlins’ case if they opt to try and trade him next off-season.

Change Without Changing

The Marlins are largely unchanged from 2015, with a couple of exceptions:

  • Henderson Alvarez was lost to injury, and is now lost to the team.  He over-performed while Fernandez was rehabbing his TJ surgery, but then broke down himself.
  • Giancarlo Stanton.  He would be significantly helpful to this offense if he can stay on the field.  Limited to just 74 games in 2015, he still managed 3.8 WAR – better than Freddie Freeman‘s output over 118 games in 2015.
  • Likewise, Fernandez should be back for a full season.  He should make up for the absence of Alvarez, and while supported by Jackson, this rotation (Fernandez, Jackson, Koehler, Cosart, and Conley) should be more than adequate with the offense they’ve still got.

Otherwise:

More from Tomahawk Take

  • 3B Martin Prado is still hanging around, and playing like… Martin Prado.
  • 2B Dee Gordon and the Marlins looked at a contract extension – that did not get done.  But absent Stanton, Gordon was their best offensive weapon in 2015 with 58 steals.
  • SS Adeiny Hechavarria might be the best SS in the NL East now with the departure of Andrelton Simmons.  *sniff*
  • They could do a lot worse than Catcher J.T. Realmuto.  He’s definitely an upgrade over Jarrod Saltalamacchia.
  • Looking for a place to upgrade?  First base.
  • The Outfield consists of Christian Yelich, Ozuna, and Stanton.  It’s not a great defensive trio, but adequate – and Stanton himself has been improving.  If Ozuna stays in the majors and returns to 2014 form, then that could be a formidable lineup as he’d provide protection for Stanton.
  • Bench:  It’s Ichiro again… and then… mostly Derek Dietrich.  The Marlins will be succeptible to injury issues again.
  • Bullpen:  A.J. Ramos will close (32 saves in 2015), but this could be the weakest part of their club overall – again, not a lot of depth here if things go sideways.

Next: The Morning Chop - Checking in

So are the Fish better for 2016?  Probably – but that’s strictly due to players they hoped would be on the field in 2015.  If they can stay healthy, then yes:  the Marlins could complete with the Nationals for the division.  If not, then it’s another year of odd things happening in South Florida.

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