Another Possible Atlanta Braves International Target

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Aug 29, 2015; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Braves third baseman Pedro Ciriaco (13) and other players stand for the national anthem before their game against the New York Yankees at Turner Field. Mandatory Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports

How the Braves Might Fit In

I’m not going to argue the point of whether the Braves would like to sign Lazaro. That much is a foregone conclusion – along with 29 other clubs – and certainly Braves’ Asst. Director of Baseball Operations Kiley McDaniel knows about him. The question here is just how many of these teams will be eligible to sign him. And that’s where this exemption ruling is vital.

Armenteros is subject to MLB’s international signing pool rules and limits. Thus, teams in the 2-year penalty box/signing moratorium period will not be in play. Currently, those teams are:

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Angels
Diamondbacks
Rays
Red Sox
Yankees

If Armenteros is not allowed to sign before next July 2, then you can add 4 more interesting teams to that list:

Cubs
Dodgers
Giants
Royals

As you can guess, that will take millions of dollars off the negotiation table. Furthermore, if the exemption request is allowed, those latter 4 teams – knowing they will be disallowed from signing international players above a $300K threshold for 2 years after July 1st – will have every incentive in the world to jack up the price for Armenteros. It’s literally their last play in the market for 2 years, and there’s no reason to hold back.

But given those kinds of dollars, you can probably strike the Royals and Cubs out of such a bidding war. Ergo, such a decision from MLB would pretty much means he signs with the Dodgers or Giants – and nobody else.

ATLANTA’S ANGLE

The Braves could be a player in this hunt under one circumstance: if MLB says “no exemption”.

If that’s the case, then the Braves – if they indeed like what they see at next week’s showcase – might as well throw their hat into this ring. As we’ve discussed in these pages, they’ve already cleared a bunch of payroll space for the purpose of going “big” into the international market this Summer.

The Braves will put themselves into the penalty box for the 2017 and 2018 signing periods regardless of Armenteros’ availability. Thus they likely would make an attempt to sign Armenteros too, if he’s indeed available on July 2nd.

Could they jump in early if his waiver request is granted? No – If Atlanta was to bid (and somehow beat out LA and SF), that would ruin their plans for this Summer by nixing any/all significant signings.

So… How Much?

That depends on the waiver decision and on what teams see in this all-important showcase. Under the assumption that what they see if confirmed, then we could be talking about something approaching/above 8 figures.

Yoan Moncada‘s record deal with the Red Sox included a $31.5 million signing bonus. The previous record was $8.25 million, handed out to Yoan Lopez (Diamondbacks) (source: Jesse Sanchez, MLB.com). But Moncada was 19… closer to 20 years old and Lopez was already 22. Lazaro is just 16½ now.

The rumor linking the Braves to 15-plus year-old Venezuelan Kevin Maitan suggest something in the immediate neighborhood of $4.25 million.

What could/would the Braves do here? I could see a signing bonus of up to $12 million being required, spread evenly over 3 years: 2016 plus the duration of the international penalty that they are going to incur. Such a deal would be allowed as Jesse Sanchez outlined in his breakdown of Moncada’s deal.

The “gotcha” would be the penalties – 100% of the amount Atlanta exceeds their international pool limit… so that’s effectively a $24 million deal, not a $12 million offer, given what seems to be in the works already. In such a circumstance, they would obviously need to be as certain as possible that Armenteros is the “real thing”. But if they think so, then money coming off the books after 2016 would make him affordable.

Getting him to the majors would be the next feat – likely taking 4-7 years. But that’s probably what it would look like. If MLB cooperates. We do want nice things for Atlanta.

Next: Braves Cannot Win by Prospects Alone

Regardless: let this thought warm you up a bit as we head into what should be a very chilly January and February in the Deep South:

Kevin Maitan. Lazaro Armenteros. Add a few other top international players. Sounds juicy, eh?

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