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Can the Atlanta Braves Rely on Prospect Growth Alone?

By Alan Carpenter

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Sep 26, 2015; Miami, FL, USA; Atlanta Braves third baseman Adonis Garcia (24) is late on tagging out Miami Marlins third baseman Miguel Rojas (19) at third base during the eighth inning at Marlins Park. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

Position Ratings/Guesses

Clearly, Atlanta seems to be set for pitching, though it could be 2018-19 before even current rookies move into their prime production years.  It could therefore be 2018-2019 before that 20+ WAR level is reached for pitching.

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On the other hand, position-player estimation seems to have a few quirks:

  • 1B – Freddie Freeman.  Signed through 2021 and probably good for anything between 3 and 7 WAR each season.
  • 2B – Jace and friends until Albies arrives.  The position is thus covered for several more years, though the question will be about production.  If the Braves can average 2 WAR here, that would be good.
  • SS – Aybar had a down year in 2015 thanks to worse-than-expected defense.  If he can rebound a bit, 2 WAR is not out of the question (had 3.7+ in 4 seasons since 2009).  Aybar could be re-signed for 2017 if Swanson isn’t ready, but it’s his spot after that.
  • 3B – I guess this position belongs to Adonis Garcia … with Beckham or Bonifacio as backups… until either Rio Ruiz or Austin Riley takes it away.  Then again, in his Venezuelan games (8 of them):  3 errors for Garcia.  That fielding may be hard to take, even if he were to muster the .940 OPS in Atlanta that he posted in Winter Ball (he won’t).  1 WAR this season?
  • LF – Hector Olivera is signed through 2020.  He should be better in 2016 with a full, normal ramp-up, though don’t be surprised if he doesn’t fade in the Summer – he’s never played this many games in a season.  2 WAR would be a good year.
  • CF – Ender Inciarte.  Assuming that he isn’t traded, he should be able to be counted on for 3 WAR since defense is a strong part of that for his game.  But he’s also been the rare player who has hit well at almost every level… hardly even pausing at the majors.
  • RF – Nick Markakis.  Signed for 3 more seasons. Has been betwen 1.6 and 2.4 WAR every season since 2009 (excepting a 2013 abberation).  No power in 2015, but excellent batting eye.  I’ll pencil him in for an improved 2 WAR year.
  • C – Pierzynski and Flowers.  You can probably count of them for 2.0 WAR combined (1.5 and 0.5 or so).  Beyond that, we have no way to know who or when another catcher will emerge.

Adding all of that up:

  • 2016:  17-18 WAR… which would definitely be an improvement without being terribly optimistic, and assuming that every other position player on the roster can average 0.0.  Pitching may continue to lag… but the bullpen has to be better.  Call it 10 WAR.
  • 2017:  The Braves would need a boost at both catcher and 3B – possibly also 2B – to maintain a 17-18 rate.  The pitching should continue to marginally improve, perhaps to 12-15 WAR at this point.
  • 2018:  By now the players of the future could be in place around the infield… might have some growing pains, though.
  • 2019:  With the pitching hitting a stride by this point, it could be a chance to really compete well this season, if strategic upgrades can be made at Catcher and RF.

What About International Players?

Don’t forget:  most of these are 16 years old when signed… that not only makes it a long time before they can sniff the majors, but also increases the risk that they never make it that far.  If you need further evidence of that, I give you two prime examples just from this morning:

The reason that the Braves are concentrating on high-upside players, multiple draft picks, multiple international players is because all of them represent rolls of the dice.  Many will falter along the way.  Few will succeed.  With many more options come many more chances for success… and for more production as well.  But even as we’re looking at significant spending in the most recent signing period and for 2016, don’t expect any contributions from here until 2021 at the absolute earliest… and more like 2022-2024.

Next: 30 Ballparks in 2016? It's Possible... and Here's a Plan to do it

The trick is in waiting for these players already in the pipeline to become ready to produce. But as good as the farm system it now, it does not appear that waiting on the farm alone will be sufficient to get Atlanta to the kind of team production that it will need to be a perennial playoff contender.  There are some time gaps.  There are some positional holes.  There will need to fill-ins with premium contributors along the way.

Sure:  things can change; trades and free agency can and may make a big difference.  But right now that ‘window of opportunity’ feels like somewhere in the 2018-2019+ time frame.  The better news is that once the window opens, it may stay open for a while.

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