Atlanta Braves Were a Long Way From Being Competitive in 2015

2 of 2

We’ll need much more of this in 2016; Atlanta Braves right fielder Nick Markakis (22) hits an RBI double during the eighth inning against the San Diego Padres at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

Much More is Needed

The 5 playoff teams had roughly 22-26 WAR coming from the offensive side. The National League maximum had the Giants at 30.8 (to go with an anemic 8.9 for pitching). If the Braves want to become playoff contenders (and no, that won’t be the case in 2016), then the current 13.6 figure has to double… and that represents another 1.7 WAR of production from every non-pitching position on the field.

That’s a tall order from a lineup that only saw 3 position players exceed 1.7 WAR in 2015. And one of those players is now an Angel.

While I have some issues personally with the way that WAR is computed for pitchers , it is hard to deny that more is needed here as well. Overall, Atlanta had the worst pitching WAR, though were ‘only’ 3rd worst in the NL in ERA. Starters fared a bit better: 10th best among the 15 teams in ERA while placing 2 notches below that in WAR.

The youngsters should improve a bit in 2016, though they will have to do so without Shelby Miller (3.4). That means the bullpen needs to be a lot better, and that indeed has been an emphasis. Jason Grilli (1.2) was the best; we trust that he will be back. Arodys Vizcaino (0.8) should be as well. But overall, if the bullpen can avoid the only negative NL WAR recorded in 2015 (-1.0), then that should help a lot (the league average was around 3.2).

CAN’T SUGARCOAT IT

The offensive production is not there – and I do not expect that to drastically improve for 2016 (unless some bizarre trade occurs). Right now the basic lineup projects as follows:

More from Tomahawk Take

Freeman
Peterson
Aybar
Garcia
Olivera
Inciarte
Markakis
Pierzynski/Flowers
(pitcher du jour)

Even under optimal conditions (which certainly includes a healthy Freddie Freeman), this doesn’t project to anything near a break-even level. The Steamer projections suggest something around 11.3 offensive WAR from this group, plus Michael Bourn).

I do personally think that number is a bit light:

Inciarte has a 1.3 WAR projection, for instance. That should be doubled.
Erick Aybar could hit 2.0 (Steamer thinks 1.5).
Olivera at 0.6? I’d have to think he’s good for at least 1.5 over the year’s course.
If Jace Peterson is only putting up 0.7 as guessed, then Gordon Beckham is going to get a lot more playing time (and he’s not on the chart)
Pierzynski and Flowers are only given credit for 1.3 combined.

Nonetheless, with inevitable mid-season dealing and injuries, the potential for the needed mid-20’s production simply isn’t there. It’s really looking more like 15-ish. And the pitching probably cannot be counted upon to exceed 10-11 in the best of scenarios.

So even an optimistic viewer can’t see much beyond a total 2016 team WAR of 25 or 26. Sure – that’s better than the 18.6 from 2015, but it only translates to something around 70-74 wins.

How does this get better? The initially obvious upgrade targets would be second and third base. Beyond that, we’ll have to see how things go for the corner outfield spots. We know we’ll have to wait out the shortstop position for another year-plus. Probably second base as well.

Next: Veteran Christmas Presence?

Other than that, we’ll undoubtedly be checking the minor league reports early and often… looking for silver linings to hold us over until 2017-18.

Home/Braves News