Atlanta Braves Newcomer: Casey Kelly, From Top Prospect To Second Chance
October 2, 2015; Los Angeles, CA, USA; San Diego Padres starting pitcher Casey Kelly (49) pitches the second inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
New Atlanta Braves Right Hander Casey Kelly
Who Is He?
Casey Kelly is a Sarasota, Florida native, the son of former MLB infielder Pat Kelly, who was drafted in the first round with the 30th overall selection by the Boston Red Sox in 2008 out of high school. He originally had legitimate considerations as a two-way player, and the Red Sox did allow him to begin his career as he desired as a shortstop in 2008, as he played in 36 games and had 141 plate appearances between the Gulf Coast League and New York-Penn League that season, hitting a combined .215/.255/.331 with a 6/42 BB/K ratio.
In 2009, Kelly actually did play both pitcher and shortstop, starting his season in the Gulf Coast League and playing in Greenville of the South Atlantic League and high-A Salem of the Carolina League by the end of the season. He combined to hit .222/.302/.340 over 182 plate appearances, but continued with poor pitch recognition with a 19/49 BB/K ratio. On the mound, he fared much better, making 17 starts and throwing 95 innings with a 2.08 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, and 16/74 BB/K ratio. After a .171/.261/.244 line in the Arizona Fall League that season, he was done playing shortstop and moved to the mound full time. Baseball America listed him as the #24 prospect, and Baseball Prospectus had him as the #30 prospect in baseball.
In 2010, the 20 year-old moved to AA Portland in the Eastern League, and he did not fare well. In 21 starts and 95 innings, he allowed a 5.31 ERA and 1.61 WHIP. He struggled with walks significantly more as well with a 35/81 BB/K ratio. He returned to the Arizona Fall League as a pitcher, but he struggled even further there with a 6.75 ERA in 4 AFL starts. The shine was a bit off of his prospect status, but many pointed to his young age and assumed he’d bounce back. He was still ranked as the #31 prospect by Baseball America and #48 prospect by Baseball Prospectus. Kelly was then included in the December trade between the Red Sox and San Diego that sent Adrian Gonzalez to the Red Sox.
San Diego sent Kelly to AA San Antonio in the Texas League in 2011. He put up solid numbers with 27 starts and 142 1/3 innings, sporting a 3.98 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, and 46/105 BB/K ratio. Kelly began to look more like a sinker ball guy that would be an inning-eater rather than an ace-type, and the rankings showed it as he dropped to #76 in Baseball America’s rankings and #78 in Baseball Prospectus’s rankings. MLB.com released their first top 100 list, and they placed Kelly #50 on their list.
Elbow issues began to show up in 2012, and Kelly made a total of 8 starts in the minor leagues in 2012 as he was on the shelf for elbow concerns for nearly five months of the season. He posted a 3.35 ERA and 0.96 WHIP over 37 2/3 innings in those 8 starts with a 3/39 BB/K ratio when he was on the mound. He came up in September to San Diego, making 6 starts, throwing 29 innings at 6.21 ERA and 1.69 WHIP with a 10/26 BB/K. Even with the major league struggles and injury concerns, his performance in the minors moved him up the Baseball America list to #45. Baseball Prospectus had him nearly the same as before the season at #77, and MLB.com had him at #69.
Kelly succumbed to Tommy John surgery in April of 2013, and he missed all of 2013 and struggled to return in 2014 from the surgery. He made only 4 starts in the minors, split between high-A Lake Elsinore of the Cal League and AA San Antonio in the Texas League. In those 4 starts, he threw 20 1/3 innings, posting a 2.21 ERA and 1.28 WHIP with a 1/17 BB/K ratio.
Next: Kelly's scouting report
2015 saw Kelly return back to the mound for a full season, but not really with the results you’d want to see. He made 31 appearances, 17 of them starts, between AA and AAA in the minor leagues before making 3 appearances, 2 of them starts, for the Padres in September. In his minor league time, he totaled 97 2/3 innings as he was eased slowly into the rotation, not making his first start until nearly June and his 15th appearance of the season. He posted a 5.16 ERA and 1.57 WHIP along with a 39/74 BB/K ratio in that time. In the majors, he threw 11 1/3 innings with a 7.94 ERA, 1.94 WHIP, and 3/7 K/BB ratio.
Mar 2, 2015; Peoria, AZ, USA; San Diego Padres starting pitcher Casey Kelly (49) poses during photo day at Peoria Sports Complex. Mandatory Credit: Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports
Casey Kelly Scouting Report
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Kelly’s season was rough, so picking starts to really get a good look at him deep into a game was difficult. I ended up finding a handful of starts where he completed at least 5 innings, one in AAA and three in AA. Over those four games, he recorded 22 innings pitched, a 2.05 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and 8/21 BB/K ratio.
Kelly works with a three-pitch mix primarily, utilizing a sinker, curve, and change up. His sinker sits in the low-90s from 91-93, touching 95 while the curve has very good 12/6 movement. His curve ball is definitely his strikeout pitch, but he gets good late movement out of both his sinker and change up that allows him to get weak contact and plenty of ground balls.
Kelly remains tall throughout his motion, making him appear taller than his 6’3 frame, but he does generate good power through his upper legs. His release point is between 3/4 and pure overhand and adds some deception to the batter as Kelly staying tall and throwing from up high gives the ball a definite downward, heavy plane.
His motion remains fairly consistent, but he struggled in one start in particular to find his location. In that particular start, in spite of only allowing 1 earned run, he walked 5 batters. Adam Wainwright gave a tremendous interview to Stephania Bell of ESPN a couple of years ago where he talked about recovery from Tommy John surgery. He discussed how he had talked with pitchers throughout the league and heard from many the same thing he experienced – the snap, movement, and velocity on pitches come back first, but it takes a complete full season of pitching before true “feel” for commanding those pitches comes back. Kelly had the look of a guy in his outings who really didn’t know where his stuff was always headed, even though it really was high-quality stuff.
Next: 2016 outlook
The starts I had watched were so good compared to his season numbers that I felt the need to see what I was missing, so I opened up and watched his August 19th start where he was unmercifully left out to dry over 2 2/3 innings, allowing 10 runs on 13 hits in that appearance. In watching that start, two things were immediately clear – first, that Kelly was absolutely “aiming” that day rather than pitching, and second, that in that aiming, he created an incredible “tell” on his change up, which got completely obliterated in the start, by dipping his arm angle to just below 3/4 when throwing the change up while keeping his usual arm slot for the fastball. That one start raised Kelly’s entire minor league season ERA by 0.75 and his WHIP by nearly 0.10.
Feb 21, 2014; Peoria, AZ, USA; San Diego Padres starting pitcher Casey Kelly (49) poses for a photo during photo day at Peoria Sports Complex. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports
Casey Kelly 2016 Outlook
A lot of the commentary on the Christian Bethancourt trade was how Atlanta was shipping off one prospect that hadn’t panned out for another one who’d done the same in Kelly. I really don’t see that in him. I think his surgery and the difficulty he had in returning from it have really put a delay in his development, as did fooling around with pitching for nearly two seasons. So at 25, he’s got a total of 544 1/3 innings on his arm. For comparison’s sake, his former Padre teammate and now Braves teammate Matt Wisler was drafted out of high school three years after Kelly and at 22 has 570 2/3 innings thrown, so Kelly’s arm is not just coming off of injury, but it’s really still a work in progress in learning the art of pitching.
He couldn’t have asked to come to a better organization for his skill set, though. The Braves have taken a number of guys with similar profiles to Kelly and turned them into tremendously successful big league pitchers. As I mentioned in the Monday piece on Aaron Blair, there is quite a mess of pitchers from AA on up in the Braves organization looking for a starting role, and Kelly’s name is now also in that hat.
I do believe the Braves think Kelly can still be a very good starter, and as such, they’ll likely put him where he’ll get regular rotation outings, whether that’s in the Atlanta or Gwinnett rotation. Kelly’s heavy sinker and plus curve ball would be a deadly combination in the bullpen if that ended up being his only big league future, but as Wainwright mentioned in his interview, Kelly’s likely going to be getting his “feel” back for those pitches this year, and he’s shown in previous seasons excellent ability to command, so if he can keep his walk rate around 5% and put those pitches where he wants them, he’ll generate more strikeouts with that curve ball and a ton of grounders with the fastball and change up.