What if You Ran the Cubs and the Atlanta Braves Wanted You to Overpay?
Oct 12, 2015; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago Cubs right fielder Jorge Soler (68) celebrates after hitting a two run home run during the sixth inning against the St. Louis Cardinals in game three of the NLDS at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: Dennis Wierzbicki-USA TODAY Sports
How Should the Braves Play this Hand?
As I say, this is not about being fair. This is entirely about exploiting the situation. If the Cubs ultimately go in a different direction (Dexter Fowler, Denard Span or somebody else, for instance), then Atlanta has lost nothing in the process.
You could ask “why haven’t they signed Fowler yet? My first answer would be “money.” The Cubs already went high to get Heyward, Zobrist, and Lackey. They’re out of cash, and Fowler likely wants something around $15 million for 4 years… but he’s essentially a more-expensive version of Cameron Maybin… if that. He also is saddled with a Qualifying Offer, which would cost the Cubs a third draft pick.
Denard Span? A CF who just had hip surgery – and a bit below average defense before that – isn’t a defensive upgrade. Offensively he’s okay, but is he 3-4 years at $12-14 million okay? There’s another potential money issue for Chicago, which has already committed a pile of cash this Fall.
Of Particular Note: the Cubs are already committed to an all-time high of roughly $155 million in payroll.
Inciarte? Clearly above average on both offense and defense in 2015… and you can keep him at highly controlled rates for five seasons.
At this point we can only guess what the “ask” is for trading Inciarte. I expect it’s probably Soler and Javier Baez – both. If it were either player alone, then this wouldn’t even be a question: the deal would have been done. But the fact that Julie DiCaro still thinks there’s a discussion going on at Addison Way means that the Cubs are still coveting Inciarte over the alternatives.
The Miller Trade as a Comp?
A couple of points here:
- I’ve seen several comments about the risk of trading the “proven” (Inciarte) for the “unproven” (Baez/Soler). This is a red herring. Chicago obviously values their guys as they expect them to be solid major league contributors. They are in the majors… their “floor” is now; their ceilings are still fairly high.
- Could Inciarte be even better than he already is? Yeah – and that’s why they want him. But the Braves have multiple holes to fill still, and this is a great chance to get that done while we do have a CF prospect available for that spot too. He might never be as good as Inciarte, but Mallex Smith will certainly fill a need – and probably pretty well.
- In the Miller deal, Atlanta asked for A.J. Pollock and ended up with #1 pick Swanson, #3 prospect MLB-ready RHP Blair, and Inciarte (starting CF). Bizarrely, it seems we’re now asking for almost the same amount for Inciarte alone.
- Also of note: the Braves ended up “settling” for a “lesser” OF and 2 premium prospects after initially asking for Arizona’s best outfielder. It would not surprise me, then, if Coppolella did the same feint here as well. One idea that could work for Atlanta in that scenario would be Javier Baez, OF Billy McKinney or OF Albert Almora, and C Willson Contreras… making a fairly significant hit to their farm.
So none of this talk is about trying to make an equitable deal. From the Cubs’ perspective, “equitable” means winning the World Series. Period. If that happens, almost any cost will have been worth it, for the legacies of all concerned will have been cemented in the ivy-adorned walls.
From the Braves’ perspective, it would be about completing the rebuild… or simply being happy with having Inciarte roam the OF for a while and enjoying his play. We ought to be happy either way.
Next: There's a Reason He Was the Number 1 Pick
Yesterday was Jason Heyward’s day in Chicago. That probably meant a pause in any attempts that might be in progress to wrest Inciarte from Coppy’s clutches. Team building resumes today.
Do you pull that trigger? Do you overpay?