Which Atlanta Braves Player is Traded Next?

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Feb 13, 2014; Bradenton, FL, USA; Souvenir baseballs on a table for sale during Pittsburgh

Who Has Needs?

Lots of teams. The starting pitcher market is the strongest, and the Braves have been more willing than most to pull triggers on deals – that is why I think Teheran (and Vizzy for clubs needing relief help) are most likely to be traded at some point. Cleveland is still asking for a big haul for their available pitching, and that has already played into Atlanta’s hands.

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The fact of the matter is that there is a ‘pecking order’ involved – a ranking of players that teams would prefer to get for their club. Whether these players are expensive free agents or prospect-expensive trade candidates is defined by the comfort level of each club. So when a Heyward signs with Chicago, it ripples to other clubs (Washington, St. Louis) and in turn to other free agents (Alex Gordon, Yoesnis Cespedes, Justin Upton) and the teams that might be interested in them.

Baltimore, for instance, wants 1B Chris Davis back. But he balked at $154 million (so far) and they pulled the offer. Where do they go from here? Nick Swisher? Not likely yet… but if they’re still having trouble filling the spot by early February, then maybe.

But We Keep Mentioning These Guys

The one club that continues to be the most active – now that Jerry DiPoto has slowed down his pace in Seattle just a bit – is the Cubs. Today’s rumor is pretty much a starting point for a discussion:

Teams that go “All In” to build a winner will sometimes do interesting things. Atlanta has been at the front and center to help them do so. Last year, those “All In” clubs were Seattle, Boston, and San Diego – with Toronto, the New York Mets and Kansas City doing so at the trade deadline. I’ll let you figure out which plan worked better in 2015.

So far, it appears that Boston is after it again, but so are the Cubs and Diamondbacks. Boston is now tweaking their team around the edges; Arizona likewise, though they would like to have another starting pitcher. That will be difficult, given that Atlanta just robbed them blind.

The Cubs have three needs right now:

Center field
Starting pitching
Bullpen add-on

Filling these needs will require some moves: a salary move, a new home for Jorge Soler, and maybe a roster spot or two.

Clearly, the Braves have focused on Soler and probably Javier Baez. Chicago really has no place to play either of these youngsters now, so the potential for a blockbuster trade is there: something like Inciarte, Teheran, and Vizcaino for Baez and Soler… with some others involved as well. It is noteworthy that Chicago doesn’t actually have a traditional lead-off candidate in their lineup at present, hence the additional attraction to Inciarte. At the moment, that role probably falls to Jason Heyward by default.

I can even imagine a scenario in which any of Jason Hammel, Kelly Schwarber, Nick Markakis, and Nick Swisher could even be involved. It’s a matter matching up pieces. But don’t get too excited here – I don’t even know where Schwarber could play, for instance.

Curiously, Chicago Javier Baez as taking on a Zobrist-esque role… despite actually having uber-utilityman Zobrist on the team! One of the Cubs beat writers seemed to underscore this, though:

That said, backup shortstops are not that difficult to come by. Heck, Ben Zobrist could do it in a pinch. They also have Tommy La Stella available, who can backup 1st, 2nd, and 3rd. Certainly, keeping Baez would be their preference, but if Atlanta was willing to part with Inciarte and insisted on getting Baez back, I can’t see that preference being a showstopper. But that’s where some other names could get involved, too.

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Meanwhile: the Dodgers need a pitcher, the Cardinals, Royals, Angels, and Mets need an outfielder, the Giants need a pitcher (going after Cueto now), and St. Louis plus another half-dozen teams need pitching as well. And that’s merely scratching the surface.

Are there places for some Braves to go? Yes… though we will have to patiently wait for the bidders to come around.

But to answer the original question? I believe Teheran is next (50% chance of being traded overall), followed by Inciarte (40%), Vizcaino (30%) and Markakis (20%). Because Atlanta can eat some money, Swisher is probably at 33-40%, but much later in the process).

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