Atlanta Braves Newcomer: Aaron Blair, Who He Is and What The Braves Can Expect

Mar 1, 2015; Scottsdale, AZ, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks starting pitcher Aaron Blair (70) poses for a portrait during Photo Day at Salt River Fields. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

New Atlanta Braves Right-Hander Aaron Blair

Who Is He?

Aaron Blair is a Las Vegas, Nevada native who was drafted in the 21st round by the Houston Astros in 2010, but he instead chose to attend Marshall University. After a very good career at Marshall, he was selected with a compensation pick between the first and second round in 2013, the 36th overall selection, by the Arizona Diamondbacks.

The 6’5, 230-pound right-hander started his pro career directly in low-A ball in the Northwest League before moving to South Bend in the Midwest League to finish his first pro season. The combined stat line in that first season was 11 games (all starts), 48 2/3 innings, 3.14 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and 17/41 BB/K ratio.

The Diamondbacks returned him to the Midwest League A-ball team in South Bend to start 2014, and while his ERA wasn’t pretty, he was dominant at times and was moved quickly to high-A Visalia in the Cal League. In the notorious hitters’ league, his ERA remained high, but his other peripherals continued to be solid, and he was promoted for a late-season run at AA Mobile in the Southern League, where he was a standout. His total line in 2014 was 27 starts, 154 innings pitched, 3.56 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 51/171 BB/K ratio. The WHIP and strikeout rate showed more than the ERA how dominant he truly was, and he was recognized after the season as the #40 overall prospect by Baseball America. Baseball Prospectus ranked him #43 overall, and MLB.com had him #81 overall.

Next: Blair's scouting report

He returned to Mobile to start 2015, and he continued to have success, showing by midseason that he was worthy of being promoted to AAA Reno in the Pacific Coast League, a notorious hitter’s league. Instead of getting rattled by the PCL, he posted a 3.18 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in this time there. Overall, his 2015 line was 26 appearances, 25 of them starts, 160 1/3 innings, 2.92 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and 50/120 BB/K. He was rated the #61 prospect in the MLB.com midseason rankings, #48 by John Sickels over at minorleagueball.com in his midseason overall rankings, and #31 in Keith Law’s top 50 midseason rankings.

Mar 1, 2015; Scottsdale, AZ, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks starting pitcher Aaron Blair (70) poses for a portrait during Photo Day at Salt River Fields. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

Aaron Blair Scouting Report

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I went through and watched 6 of Blair’s starts. I chose three from his time in AA last season and three from his time in AAA. I wanted to see one game against our own Mississippi Braves, so I did watch one start there, and I also had a recommendation to watch a start against Salt Lake in his AAA time. Other than those two starts, I picked the last two starts at each minor league affiliate. The total stat line from those six starts was the following: 3-2 record, 39 innings pitched, 2.77 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 7/30 BB/K.

Blair is a large man, and he seems to enjoy wearing clothes to make himself look even larger. He’s 6’5 and 230, and those look accurate, but he seems like he grabbed the biggest jersey in the clubhouse each different start, so he appeared larger until you saw him slap his glove to his stomach or something to really show how much extra jersey he had!

Blair’s delivery is quick and effortless. He has an extra pull back at the peak of his windup – not a Hideo Nomo level reach back, but a much less exaggerated version of that sort of hip turn. This helps him generate extra downward plane by getting his body high before he delivers. His arm slot sits just a touch under 3/4, and he’s fairly consistent with the slot. That consistency of arm slot really keeps hitters from sitting on any of his pitches, even at the AAA level.

From that peak point of his delivery, Blair comes down hill, and he does so with as near a perfect form as you could ask for, leveraging his legs very well, and using his thick legs and torso to generate the force and sink to his pitches. Like his consistency with his arm slot, he also had very good consistency with his landing spot with his foot on the mound.

Blair’s repertoire to begin 2015 was a three-pitch mix of a sinking fastball, change up, and a curve ball. His consistent arm slot and arm speed really does an excellent job of hiding the difference among the three. His fastball is a low-90s pitch, sitting in the 89-92 range, touching 94 in the games I saw. That said, he did touch 93 twice in the 7th inning in one game, so he maintains the top velocity throughout the game.

The change up is a powerful weapon for Blair, creating a ton of weak contact as hitters simply cannot pick up the difference between the fastball and change up, which sits about 10 mph slower than the fastball. His curve ball has a break from 11 to 5, but it doesn’t tend to break a ton of planes. His curve ball is his strikeout pitch, but if he starts the pitch up in the zone, it doesn’t break enough to get out of the heart of the hitting zone, so he did get hit hard a few times on curve balls up in the zone.

Next: 2016 outlook

The reason I mentioned his three-pitch mix in the past tense is that he began working with a fourth pitch in his time in Reno this season, and he had considerable success in spurts with the pitch. He started working with a slider that came in around 82-84 mph. The pitch did become “slurvy” in his last two starts, and when it would do that, it could get driven fairly well, but in the game against Salt Lake, it was snapping well as a pure sinking slider, and that motion was baffling hitters. If he can get that slider consistent, he could have a real weapon on his hands.