Atlanta Braves Showing Interest in Zobrist… But Could It Even Happen?
Oct 27, 2015; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals second baseman Ben Zobrist hits a single against the New York Mets in the 14th inning in game one of the 2015 World Series at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports
The Down Sides
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The first chinks in Ben Zobrist’s armor might have been noticed in 2015…kinda: 2.1 fWAR after 4 seasons at 5+ and 5 of 6 seasons above 5. However, most of this seems to have been attributable to his defensive play as much as anything else. He still hit above his career average (.276 vs. 265). A reduction in performance should be expected given his age, and that’s why a 4 or even 3 year deal is going to be a bit iffy for the Braves.
At the same time, he’s been durable: 150+ games played from 2009-13… and 146 in 2014/126 in 2015. That, his presence in general, and plate success are all reasons to pursue him… and indeed John Coppoelella’s comments to Rosenthal concedes that Zobrist “brings so much to the table on and off the field that he could help all 30 teams.”
The Money Bit
MLBTR guessed that 3 years and $51 million ($17m AAV) would be sufficient, so a comparable 4 year offer might be $62m ($15.5m – just under the Qualifying Offer level). That’s … a lot, no doubt. My own analysis suggests that the Braves would be pushing close to a maximum payroll of $120 million if they were to ink him for that $62m.
But there are ways he could be accommodated… fairly readily, in fact:
- At the end of this week, we’ll know Mike Minor‘s fate. With his latest setback just over 2 weeks ago, I expect Atlanta will have no real choice except to cut him loose, and the signing of Bud Norris may actually have sealed his fate.
- With the seemingly constant rumors of league-wide interest in Shelby Miller, I’d have to believe he’s not going to be on the roster in April… at least not our roster.
Right there, those two subtractions would net around $10.0 million. Add back in Norris’ contract and the Braves are $7.5 million to the good – which is half of Zobrist’s estimated contract price. In absence of anything else, that would put Atlanta at roughly $116 million, a pretty high figure, given club makeup. What the Braves will have to determine is whether the added benefit of Zobrist to the organization transcends his value even as a ballplayer… and thus the extra cost of his acquisition.
This is the Jonny Gomes effect – trying to place a value on whether Zobrist is worth the extra bucks by rubbing off on players that would following his lead… or Gomes’… or Grilli, … or Pierzynski, … by helping the rookies develop better careers.
Honestly, though, if Coppy is serious about Zo, then these numbers would serve to further speculation that the Braves are still working on ways to dump payroll. I imagine we’ll see that play out over the next 2-4 weeks.
Bottom Lines: I would personally endorse the effort, but hope they could get him on a 3-year pact instead. But others will have to be outbid in the process. Therefore, my belief that this happens is: 15%.
Which is still enough to talk about.