A Quick Look at Fangraphs’ Rankings of Atlanta Braves Prospects
The 2015 Braves Media Guide… Kyle Tait’s copy. Photo credit” Alan Carpenter, TomahawkTake.com
So What’s Wrong With the List?
There were several things that commenters were giving angst to Farnsworth about:
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- Ryan Weber was ranked 4th (now 5th after the edit)
- Austin Riley and Kolby Allard went missing all together (added later)
- Hector Olivera is shown fairly low
- John Gant at position #2… above Sean Newcomb
- The list does indeed look a bit better now with Allard and Riley included
When you read about Dan’s philosophy for these ranks, you can understand them a bit better:
- He has a general concern for so many highly-ranked players flaming out and becoming busts
- He has a general concern for pitchers with control or health issues
- He seems to believe that proximity to the majors identifies less risk to being a bust, and that seems to be a rank-booster
A Bit More Detail
Perhaps the biggest “oh really?” part here involves both Ryan Weber and John Gant.
Gant is one of the pitchers returned in the Summer of Kelly Johnson and Juan Uribe to the Mets. You can see on this chart that Gant didn’t even scratch the Top 20 of their farm system. McDaniel tweeted at the time that he might be a back-end-of-the-rotation pitcher.
But second in the farm system? That’s a bold positioning, given those behind him. I like the kid a lot – he had consistent, repeated successes at the AA level after the trade and there was essentially nothing not to like… especially with a 1.99 ERA that improved significantly on his numbers as a Met. Still, Farnsworth pegs Gant as a future #3 starter, which is probably about as high as his stuff can carry him… at least by my reckoning.
Ryan Weber got his shot in the majors in 2015 and seemed to impress most observers, though perhaps none more than Farnsworth, as he’s been rocketed to #5 on this list from… well, pretty much out of the Top 20 on everyone else’s list.
Perhaps it was a mistake for Dan to bring up the name of Dallas Keuchel as a point of comparison for Weber – seeing as Keuchel is developing into an Ace and now has a shiny new Cy Young award for his den. That comp looks even stranger given that there are 3 pitchers ranked above Weber – though Gant is the one who stands out.
Would I have placed Gant and Weber in the Top 20 at this time? Yes, I would – though probably somewhere in the teens. I can understand Farnsworth’s ideas, though I do think he may have been a bit more enamored by the videos than might be justified.
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Still, prospect evals come down to opinion. Those who do that well will get noticed… in any aspect of baseball (which is why McDaniel is now a Braves employee). Also, Dan is much better at reading players then I will ever be from this office chair. The trick is going to be in the details and the communications of those details. So with the disclaimer of what I wrote at the top, I’ll give Farnsworth a grade of 65 for the research, 60 for the details, and 40 for the communications… with a future projection hope of 55.
Frankly, I hope he’s right. For if so, the Braves may end up with a couple of mid-rotation arms that they didn’t necessarily know they had.