Atlanta Braves Rumor: Giants are Looking for Miller; Price is High

July 25, 2015; San Francisco, CA, USA; San Francisco Giants second baseman Joe Panik (12) scores on a RBI-single by third baseman Matt Duffy (5, not pictured) during the sixth inning against the Oakland Athletics at AT&T Park. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

A Look at Matt Duffy and Joe Panik

MATT DUFFY

Duffy, who is nearly 25, roared through the Giants’ minor league system after being drafted in 2012 – in the 18th round.  He saw two-thirds of a season of AA, nothing at the AAA level, and then was pressed into service as the regular third baseman (he came up as a SS) once the Panda bolted for Boston.

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So how’d that work?

No problem.  His first full big-league season?  4.9 WAR with a dozen homers and a .295 average… pretty much consistent with his minor league numbers.  He even played much better-than-average defense.  Now he’s suddenly a keeper – worth a #1 pitcher with 3 more years of control.

Is this sustainable?  Hard to say.  Duffy, when scouted by John Sickels, was given a “C+” grade and ranked 13th in their system just 1 year ago, a ranking/grading that doesn’t exactly scream ‘consistent major league performer’.  He was compared favorably to David Eckstein, who enjoyed a 10 year career from 2001-10, but peaked in year 2 (as a SS) with 4.5 WAR… but 16.8 in his career.

As a hitter, Duffy doesn’t exactly profile as a third baseman, either:  those 12 homers were his career high in any year.  The right-hander only had a .323 OBP (6% BB rate), though K’d under 16% of the time.

JOE PANIK

Panik is about 2-1/2 months older than Duffy and has been the Giants second-sacker for the past year-plus.  He was a first-round pick in 2011, but clearly got through their system fairly rapidly as well.  Likewise, Panik also had a breakout season for the Giants, hitting .312 with a .378 OBP and better-than-average defense.  His wRC+ went to 138 in 100 games with a 4.2 WAR.

Looking for consistently in reviews, John Sickels ranked Panik 13th among the Giants farm hands a year prior to putting Duffy there… also with a C+ grade.  At the time, he was thinking ‘utility player’, with “a chance that he can be more than that.”  I guess so.

In Panik’s case, consistency is happening… if he can make it through an entire season.  .305 in 2014, .312 in 2015.  He also walks more than Duffy and K’s much less… a .378 OBP was stout as well.  He missed the last two months of the season with a lower back injury (returning for just 3 games in early September), which (a) obviously didn’t help the Giants’ playoff chances; and (b) makes that 4.2 WAR look even better.

So What Would the Giants Be Willing to Give Up?

Here’s where I hope that the Braves bring up the name ‘Andrew Susac‘.  He is the backup to Buster Posey, who is under contract through the year 2021. He’s also their #1 propsect… or was until graduating from that list.

There’s honestly no point is keeping Susac tied down since he’d be eligible to become a free agent the year before they would bid farewell to Posey.

So the question is whether the Giants really would prefer to save a pile of cash and use the trade market vs. trying to lure a free agent.  It’s very likely that this dance will persist for multiple teams over the next month until some of these dominoes begin to fall.  But in the case of the Giants, if they opt to pull the trade trigger, here is what I would propose:

• Braves get Andrew Susac, Matt Duffy, and probably one or two of their prospect pitchers
• Giants get Shelby Miller, Christian Bethancourt, and Jace Peterson

Both sides get some value, and the Giants wouldn’t miss Susac in the deal… though would have a capable backup in Bethancourt.

Next: A Current Look at the Braves' Payroll Situation

As with all of these rumors, we’ll have to wait and see if anything comes of it, but there’s one more curious tidbit about this particular rumor of the Giants’ interest in Miller:  if they and others are truly interested in the trade markets for starting pitching, who’s going to pay for the Zack Greinke‘s and David Price‘s out there?

The free agents might end up begging for contracts at lower levels as the Fall turns into Winter.

Interesting.