Atlanta Braves and The Trade

Sep 29, 2015; Anaheim, CA, USA; Los Angeles Angels shortstop Erick Aybar (2) doubles to right to produce a run during the eighth inning against the Oakland Athletics at Angel Stadium of Anaheim. Mandatory Credit: Richard Mackson-USA TODAY Sports

A little short at short

In a post on his Braves blog O’Brien quoted the new GM’s response to a reporter who said some fans, “. . .that some fans would look at this again as the Braves dumping salary and moving a popular player for nothing more than additional pitching prospects.. . “

"“. . . You can make an argument that we are actually a team that can win more games with Aybar,” Coppolella said. “Aybar is a career .276 hitter; Simmons has never hit .276 in a full season. Aybar’s a switch-hitter, 18 months back an All-Star, he can hit (first or second in the order) for you. I mean, Aybar’s a really good player. I think we traded defense for offense in this trade. The fact that we got two huge-upside arms is great, but as far as for 2016, I don’t think that’s a big step back for this Braves team."

That sounds right on the surface but let’s take a look at what he said and see if it really is correct.

Numerically speaking.

A quick glance at the slash lines from the Baseball Reference web site  does indeed show Aybar with an advantage. All stats in this comparison are from 2012 forward as they speak to recent performance.

They also show that he hit into less double plays, walked less and struck out more. From a power standpoint Simons has more home runs -31 to his 24- but Aybar has more doubles –124 to Simmons 76 – and roughly 150 more hits.

As a clutch hitter Aybar’s been pretty dependable and consistent.

That’s good right? Yes it is but some have a different view.

A piece in the Washington Post had this cryptic paragraph, see if if can pick out the bit that made me reread it twice.

"“. . .Aybar, . . can stand at shortstop and field the position and hit his empty .276/.315/.378 (his career numbers) next summer (or, worse, his .270/.301/.338 from 2015). . .”"

What is an empty 276/.315/.378?  We used to call them hollow batting averages and now we have hollow OBPs, they look pretty good on paper but they don’t produce a lot on the field. To see that we’ll take a look at some advanced stats again from 2012 through 2015.