A Plan to Make the Atlanta Braves Contenders in 2016

Oct 3, 2015; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Cincinnati Reds third baseman Todd Frazier (21) fields a ground ball against the Pittsburgh Pirates during the fifth inning at PNC Park. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

The Plan – Step 1

Engage the Reds in a trade with the following primary goals:

• 3B Todd Frazier and 2B Brandon Phillips come to Atlanta
• P Williams Perez, 2B Jace Peterson, 3B/OF Adonis Garcia, and OF Cameron Maybin go to Cincinnati
• If the Reds need more:  send P Zach Bird or the equivalent.

The Financials:

• Frazier is under contract for $7.5 million in 2016, plus has one arbitration year remaining in 2017 before hitting free agency.
• Phillips is under contract through 2017:  $13m and $14m over the next two seasons.
• Maybin is owed $8m in 2016 and has a $1m buyout of a $9m option for 2017.  Under this proposal, Atlanta would send $4.5 million to Cincinnati and carry the contracts of both Frazier and Phillips.
• In total, Atlanta adds approximately $16 million in payroll; the Reds subtract a like sum.  But it’s not a long-term commitment, either as both new players

The Good Part:

• Two significant bats are added to the Braves lineup, in addition to their above-average defense.
• This also clears an outfield spot so that Mallex Smith and Michael Bourn can share the CF duties.  Either would be valuable off the bench when not starting.

• From the Reds point of view, this would be a successful salary dump trade: that would be their primary motivation here, in addition to getting 2 young major leaguers.
• Both Garcia and Maybin would hit very well in Great American Ballpark’s friendly dimensions.  They would lose something in terms of 3B defense, but the drop off in hitting would not be as significant since Maybin should be better in LF than anything they had in 2015.
• Jace would be well-positioned to support Billy Hamilton by hitting 2nd in that lineup – which should also give him decent pitches to hit.
• Williams Perez is a ground ball pitcher – exactly what they need, having lost significant pitching recently.
• The Reds’ payroll was $88 million in 2012 and ballooned to $115 million in 2015.  Dropping back to $100 million would help them tremendously and this fits with the general idea of the Braves using their monetary flexibility to make strategic trades.

The Bad Part

• Atlanta would lose the control over Peterson and Perez, which is significant.  That would have to be part of the calculus in prying Frazier away.
• You only have Frazier for 2 years unless and extension could be worked out (not terribly likely).  But that does allow the right amount of time for Rio Ruiz and or Austin Riley to emerge.

You might also consider swapping Nick Markakis and Jay Bruce in this trade as well, but that really doesn’t help Cincy at all:  Bruce’s deal is over (sans option) after $12.5 million in 2016 while Markakis continues for 3 years at $11 million.  Even doing that while sending more cash to Ohio doesn’t really work, for Atlanta needs to save that money.

BACKUP PLAN

• Keep Jace Peterson at second base and pursue free agent 3B David Freese.  Provides less power and requires more money than Frazier, though without Phillips’ deal; I agree with the MLBTR idea of 3 years and $30 million for Freese… except for the 3 years part most likely being too long for Atlanta’s tastes.

Next: Step 2 - The Catcher on the Sly