Can the Atlanta Braves Fix Mike Foltynewicz
By Fred Owens
May 19, 2015; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Mike Foltynewicz (48) delivers a pitch to Tampa Bay Rays player Steven Souza Jr. (20) in the first inning of their game at Turner Field. Mandatory Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports
Location, location, location
"Back in 2006 David Appleman studied how pitch location in the zone affected outcomes. His findings were mostly what we’d expect."
"The starters who throw to the upper-third of the strike zone are mostly fly-ball pitchers. . . ,(those) who throw to the lower-third of the strike zone are mostly groundball pitchers. . .the upper/lower third of the strike zone showed some correlation with groundball and fly-ball percentages."
I said mostly because he also found that “. . .how a pitcher utilizes the inside or outside third of the plate doesn’t really correlate well with anything. . .” A bigger surprise was that he found no direct correlation between balls thrown in the middle of the plate and BABIP.
"There are plenty of players who throw the ball over the center of the plate more frequently than others and quite simply get away with it for reasons that can’t be put under a general rule of thumb."
Another look at the strike zone and homes on Fangraphs in 2012 showed that the top and bottom 10% of the zone and the outer three were less likely to produce home runs. I created a picture of the danger zone as laid out in those two posts to make it easier to see.
I based this on the strike zone charts from Brooks Baseball. The yellow square is the theoretical strike zone and the area between the green lines – particularly in the green square in the center – produce the most contact. I know, I know, you knew that but hopefully the picture will make those that follow easier to understand. In addition to Brooks Baseball I borrowed and modified charts from Texas Leaguers and Fangraphs.