Atlanta Braves Armchair GMs 7&8

Oct 4, 2015; Baltimore, MD, USA; Baltimore Orioles right fielder Gerardo Parra (18) singles during the first inning against the New York Yankees at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

Atlanta Braves Armchair GM #8, Coach Wes

As an Armchair GM, Coach Wes pulls out all the old coaching cliches when negotiating contracts: “No I in TEAM”, “110%”, “Leave it on the field”, “Make somethin’ happen!”  and “If you’re not first, you’re last”. Coach Wes, much like Bobby Cox, thinks it necessary to dress the part and wears cleats and full-uniform everywhere he goes, which is really odd for an Armchair GM, especially when seen shopping at the local departments stores during Christmas. Coach Wes is so full of natural energy that he has to drink chamomile tea regularly just to keep him from not yelling coaching cliches all the time. “It’s a struggle, but I give 110% of myself because of chamomile tea, otherwise, it’d be much, much more.”

Note from Coach Wes: 

Well, I am going to do my best to do this the way the Braves want to do this, which is trying to keep financial flexibility for the future, improve the club now while preserving it more for the future by signing players that won’t require draft picks, and signing guys who are realistic choices.

Tier 1

Starting pitcher

Chris Young -1 year for 5 million.

*Rich Hill, Dillon Gee, and Kyle Lohse also fit here instead of Young

Relievers

Matt Thornton -1 year at 3.5 million

Bobby Parnell-1 year at 2.5 million

Bench/platoon/outfield bat

Stay with what we got in Garcia (also righty bench bat), Swisher, Bourn, Maybin, Toscano (or his ghost) and Markakis which should create some interesting possible platoons and interesting defense with Swisher and Garcia (yikes).

Catcher

Resign A.J. Pierzynski -2 years at 8 million (1 year at 4 million plus an option for 2017 or 2 million buyout guaranteeing him 6 million total)

Give Bethancourt another shot at it as possible starter or back up to AJ

This is tough but may be all the Braves have to work with (better than the Marlins right?).  Total spent 15 million.

Pitcher-Young is an old gritty pitcher who has seen action in 12 seasons. I would much, much rather have Latos here but he will cost just a little too much in this tier. Young has pitched ok the past 2 seasons compiling a mid 3s era in 288 innings. His FIP is much higher but what do you expect for a 5 million dollar flyer that could go to the bullpen if he can’t make it as a starter. Maybe he can be our Aaron Harang as baseball reference is projecting him to pitch to a 3.61 era and 127 innings next season. He isn’t going to be an innings eater or strike out many players but he will be cheap and in this tier that is essential. The Braves could take a flyer on Lohse, Rich Hill, Dillon Gee, or Kyle Kendrick who all could be had that cheap and I could make a case for or against any of them.

Relievers- Thornton pitched well last year and pitched at 3.5 million for the past few years so I expect him to sign a similar contract even at 39 years old. He gets lefties and righties out as well (BA of .231 vs. lefties and .240 against righties for his career). He will carry some trade value as well. I originally had Matt Belisle here but with closer experience and a chance at redemption the Braves seem more likely to go with someone like Parnell here if he seems healthy. They could go with a host of mediocre relievers at 2.5 million.

Bench/outfield-with no trades and possibly 7 outfielders on the roster, there isn’t any reason to add anything here especially with the money allocated for this tier.

Catcher- The Braves didn’t give Bethancourt much of a chance last year (I’m OK with that) and AJ played out of his mind. Bethancourt was a disaster last year but in this tier he could still have a chance (hopefully his last) to be at least half of what the Braves thought he could be. And AJ will be highly sought after this off season (Twins love him) after the year he had and the fact he won’t require a massive commitment in years. AJ loves the Braves though, and a second year at another 4 million will be a big chance the Braves will have to take to keep him from an AL team who could use him at catcher and a decent hitting left handed DH. Maybe the Braves then look at someone like Francisco Cervelli who will be a free agent next year if Bethancourt does not show improvement.

Tier 2, I think this is the more realistic Tier.

Pitcher

Matt Latos 1 year at 8 million

Relief pitchers

Matt Thornton-1 year at 3.5 million

Seung-hwan Oh-3 years 9 million (2 million the first year, 3.5 mil for the next two)

Outfield/Bench

Kelly Johnson-2 years 4 million (2 million per year)

Gerrado Parra-3 years 24 million (6 million year 1, the 9 million in 17 and 18)

Catcher

Resign AJ Pierzynski at 2 years 8 million (1 year at 4 million plus a option for 2017 or 2 million buyout guaranteeing him 6 million total)

Chris Iannetta-2 years at 9 million (3.5 million the first year and 5.5 million the next)

That’s 28 million so I am close at least to the 25 million. I really think this is the tier the Braves will actually be in. If we trade away any money then you could insert Sipp or Madson instead of Oh, which would be a more ideal scenario anyway.

Pitcher- Latos’s FIP last year was 3.72 but he had a 4.95 era. But his career era is 3.51 and his career FIP is 3.44. His K rate and walk rate were also fairly close to career norms for him as well. What went wrong for Latos last year? How about a .307 BABIP (career worst) and a 63.7% strand rate (also a career worst). He gave up 11.6% homers per fly ball which was also high for him. But remember for the couple of years he pitched in the Red’s bandbox he pitched roughly 200 innings per at his career norms. I think there will be a bigger market for him than what is realized and he will be my pick for a couple of these tiers. I also think he will be very, very tradeable come next year’s trade deadline. Masterson signed for 9.5 million after a similar down year in 2014 so I expect Latos to come close to that at 8 million. After 2016, Atlanta should be pretty flush with affordable starters if they don’t trade several of them.

Relief pitchers- I already mentioned Thornton and I took a flyer on Oh here as I expect him to sign for roughly 8 to 10 million. He wants to pitch in the US this year and could be worth a look not as a closer but as a quality set up guy. He has been a closer in the KBO or Japanese league for roughly 11 years compiling over 350 saves during that time. He is widely considered to be the best Korean closer of all time. Since 2011 his era has gone like this 2011-.063, 2012-1.94, 2013-1.74, 2014-1.76 and in 2015-2.73. His rising 4 seamer sits at 92-94 mph and can hit 97mph. It’s nicknamed “stone fastball” because of how hard it is to hit. I also thought he had a cool nickname as “kkeut-Pan Wang” meaning “final boss”. This past year was his worst year and the odds are unlikely we sign him but I like him for this exercise never the less (time to stop being scared of Kenshin Kawakami types).

Outfield-I’m going to get killed here but I like Parra as a platoon player and Mlb trade rumors recently described his potential contract to be right around that 3 year/24 million mark. Outside of last year his defensive marks have been terrific, he can play center if we bail on Bourn and/or Maybin, and he has a career .289 batting average and a .797 OPS against right handed pitching. He isn’t a big power guy but a platoon with him and Garcia could create 15 to 20 home runs (as long as Garcia keeps his power). I know what you’re thinking and your right, Garcia is a terrible defender but with an off season to work on his defense and the fact that he could be substituted for in close games not to mention that he will only get 50 or so games in left in a platoon situation then maybe this could be much better than what we put out there last year. Garcia hit .328 with a .638 slugging percentage and a .982 OPS against lefties last year albeit in a pretty small sample size. Parra struggled mightily down the stretch last year but was terrific in the first part of the year and he should probably go back to his career norms next year. Stuggling in the second half of the year should keep the cost down for us as well. As far as Kelly Johnson goes, he provides veteran leadership, has some pop from the left side and can play any of the infield spots if someone struggles early on (looking at you Jace) or if someone gets hurt (looking at you Olivera). Castro would be the other bench/platoon back up infielder.

Catching-I really like the idea of an Ianetta and AJ platoon here as both exhibit plausible platoon splits. Ianetta is the better overall catcher and AJ actually had a pretty positive clubhouse effect on our team last year. Ianetta has hit .252 with an OBP of .383 (wow) and slugged .477 against lefties for his career. Even last year, his worst statistical year, he hit .230 with an OBP of .359 and slugged .405 against lefties. If he could even come close to his career norms then he would be a great platoon partner with AJ who has hit righties at a .290 clip in his career with a .439 slugging percentage. I know that catching platoons aren’t as favorable as other positions because of the relationships developed between certain catchers and pitchers but the Braves could (maybe Fredi) work it out in their favor. Aj has always pretty much hit well in his career but with someone who could more capably spell him against tough lefties than Cbeth then maybe he could keep doing close to what he did last year.

Tier 3

Starting pitcher

Matt Latos-1 year 8 million

Relievers

Tony Sipp or Antonio Bastardo-3 years at 15 million (5 million per)

Ryan Madson– 1 year 3.5 million

Bobby Parnell-1 year 1.5 million

Outfield (see contracts above)

Kelly Johnson

Gerrado Parra

Catcher

Resign AJ Pierzynski

Chris Iannetta

In this tier we get some serious relief help while everything else stays the same as tier 3. I really like this tier and with a trade or two then it’s very, very possible. The big thing here is the much better relievers. Sipp and Bastardo are the cream of the lefty crop and I expect them to be in the Zach Duke contract range who got 3 years and 15 million from the White Sox last year. Bastardo may get 6 or 7 million AAV at three years as he is younger. Sipp would be my pick as lefties have hit .213 against him and righties have hit .201 against him for his career. He seems to be getting better with age and at 32 years old a 3 year deal seems likely although he could actually get more than 15 million. He would make for a fantastic set up man. Madson is a former closer who did not pitch the three years before 2015 but has turned in a nifty 2.13 era with a FIP of 3.09 in more than 60 innings pitched this year. He has struck out roughly 8 per 9 innings which is close to his career norm and is absolutely worth a chance for the braves. He shouldn’t be too expensive with his injury history or require a long deal since he is 35. Parnell would give us another arm with closing experience here and could really help to solidify the pen into one of the best if he works out. All of these guys could easily be moved at the deadline to if need be.

Tier 4

Starting pitcher

Jordan Zimmerman-5 years at 100 million (20 million per)

Relievers

Antonio Bastardo or Tony Sipp-3 years at 15 million (5 million per)

Ryan Madson- 1 year 3.5 million

Bobby Parnell-1 year 1.5 million

Bench/platoon/outfield bat/2^nd base/3^rd base etc.

Kelly Johnson

Ah-Seop Son-15 million posting fee and 5 years for 15 million (3 million per)

Catcher

Resign AJ Pierzynski -2 years at 8 million (1 year at 4 million plus an option for 2017 or 2 million buyout guaranteeing him 6 million total)

Chris Iannetta-2 years at 9 million (4.5 per)

That is 58.5 million and only one pick lost as the Braves should be loathe to lose picks. I would love to have Alex Gordon, Dexter Fowler or even Daniel Murphy here as opposed to the unknown of a Korean outfielder. But if I’m giving up a pick I am doing so for an elite pitcher who won’t get as over paid as Price or Cueto in years or dollars.  Can you imagine a rotation of Zimmerman, Tehran, Miller, Wisler and either Folty, Minor, or Buenolos. If Minor pitches well, that would just give Folty and Buenolos a chance to hone their skills until we feel comfortable trading Minor (if Minor pitches well). Weber or Perez could end up as the long man in the pen. I’m not going over Zimmerman’s stats here as I seriously, seriously doubt this would ever happen. He has been mostly fantastic and most of the potential contract numbers I am seeing for him are in the 5 year 100 million range. He just would completely solidify our staff into one of the best in the national league. The other flyer I took here is on the soon to be posted Ah-Seop Son. He has been the model of consistency in the KBO hitting .333 with an OBP of .409 and slugging .476 since 2011. He has also averaged 16 steals per year. How much will he cost and what will he produce here in the states. Jung Ho Kang hit .285 with an OBP of .355 and slugged .461 this year with Pittsburgh and except for home runs he was a similar hitter as Son in the KBO. I am going to reiterate that Kang hit for a lot more power than Son in the KBO. And except for the massive power he displayed in the KBO, Kang did quite well here in the states and cost Pittsburgh a 10 million dollar posting fee and 11 million over 5 years. First of all that’s a bargain, and second of all Son will cost more, probably a 15 million posting fee and a 15 million contract over 5 years so at roughly 6 million per season when averaged out, Son could be a steal. He won’t hit for much power and a team like the Dodgers or Yankees could step in and offer him stupid money (thanks to how well Kang performed) but I doubt he will get too expensive. He also won’t cost us a pick. . And I added the 15 million posting fee to the Braves Payroll for 2016 which would continue to give us more payroll flexibility for the future.I could’ve gone with Weiters here for catching but I just don’t think his big body will age well and any contract over three years will more than likely become a complete albatross. He will get a lot of money as the catching market is barren and he is a Boras client. 85 to 100 million will hopefully prove to be too much for the Braves.

That’s all from Coach Wes!

Next: That's a Wrap, Folks!