Braves Off Season Trouble Spot–The Rotation

Oct 8, 2015; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Texas Rangers starting pitcher

throws a pitch against the Toronto Blue Jays in the first inning in game one of the ALDS at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Peter Llewellyn-USA TODAY Sports

Yovani Gallardo

NOTE: I put Gallardo in this section but he is eligible for a QO. I haven’t  heard anything to indicate whether he will stay or go. He earned 14M this year and the Rangers could justify the offer.  Keep that in mind when reading this section and thanks to Wes for pointing out my fau pas.

Gallardo is pretty well known to Braves fans after his years in Milwaukee because he always game the Braves trouble. In nine starts against the Braves he’s 5-2 with a 2.30 ERA, 1.091 WHIP in 58 2/3 IP.

His move to the Rangers didn’t significantly effect his numbers in spite of the AL West being full of thumpers.  His WHIP climbed marginally from 1.29 to 1.40 and his strikeouts dropped a bit from 146 to 121 in eight fewer innings,  At the same time his ERA dropped from 3.51 to 3.42 while his FIP went up from 3.94 to 4.00. He continued to average six innings a start and his fWAR actually rose from 2.0 to 2.5.

Like Leake Gallardo is a heavy ground ball pitcher (49.2%) and his average HR/FB rate over the last three years (10.9%) is lower than that of Leake (12.8%) although last year’s 8.8% is well below his usual 11-12% range.

Gallardo’s not a strikeout pitcher so a better defense helps him and the Braves middle infield would be his best friend.  He’s a year older than Leake but has remained healthy after having his knee repaired in 2008 while Leake had should problems at the end of last year.

Although Gallardo doesn’t have the reputation that Shields had when the Padres over paid for him, his performance resembles that of Shields and prior to the Royals acquiring him from Tampa I advocated for a trade that would have brought Shields to the Braves.

His consistency and experience make him someone the Braves will check into and prioritize if the market allows. Although he he makes a lot of sense and seems a perfect fit if the price is right, for some reason I’m not overly enthusiastic about Gallardo. Maybe it’s the goatee . . .

I saw one estimate that had Gallardo getting four years at $48M, I’d be surprised if the contract is that small but if he would accept something like that the Braves should grab him. While I expect him to get good deal there are no $21M years in Gallardo’s future but I do expect at least five years at $65M with an option to be close to the final number.

If the price is right the Braves won’t be put off by the goatee and Gallardo would provide a solid anchor and mentor for the rotation as the young arms mature.