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Atlanta Braves’ Blueprint for Future: Look No Further Than Mets/Royals

By Alan Carpenter

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May 23, 2015; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; New York Mets starting pitchers

Noah Syndergaard

(34) and

Jacob deGrom

(48) before playing the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

A Different Path

The New York Metropolitans are all about their pitching.  Yes, they’ve been beating up on competition here in the playoffs due to their offense, but … frankly… Daniel Murphy should retire after this season, because he’s never gonna duplicate this again.  The pace he is setting is historically unreal.

New York has been looking forward to this for a while.  They have had this promise of a great staff for a while, only to see one thing or another pop up to derail the expectations – and with it, their seasons.

Once upon a time, it was pitchers such as Bill Pulsipher and Jason Isringhausen.  There were brief encounters with Mike Hampton (who actually survived a season in New York), Kris Benson, and a bit longer with John Maine.  In the past decade, Johan Santana was brought in to anchor the rotation – even pairing him with Pedro Martinez … but that didn’t work out either.

Other veterans were brought in as hole-fillers – Tom Glavine, Steve Trachsel, Livan Hernandez, and others.  None lasted long.  Even R.A. Dickey, who won the Cy Young award in 2012, was brought in as just another vet arm in 2010.  But he lasted just 3 years in New York.

Attempted Growth from Within

Mike Pelfrey was a 1st round draftee in 2005.  He got to the majors in 2006, lasting until 2012 with the Mets.  Good try, but his was yet another promise that didn’t quite make it. Jon Niese, drafted in the 7th round that year, fared better, though never was ‘dominant.’

Drafts weren’t exactly working well for the Mets at all, really:  from 2006-2009, the only productive players of note grown from these years were Lucas Duda and some kid named Murphy.

But in 2010… things changed:  Matt Harvey.  Jacob deGrom.  And the Mets then opted for more.

At the 2011 trade deadline, the Mets got Zack Wheeler from the Giants for Carlos Beltran.  In December 2012, R.A. Dickey went to the Blue Jays in the ultimate “sell high” deal, getting Noah Syndergaard and Travis d’Arnaud (among others involved).

To be honest, it almost seems like the Mets have stumbled their way into this rotation – certainly more this than having actually planned for it.  2 draft picks out of 100 hit big, and then the ineptness of their major league club has given them a double windfall via trades.  But at least Sandy Alderson was smart enough to take the gifts as presented, and all of this fruit is ripening together.

How long did this take?

Atlanta is going with the young pitching approach as well now… but then this organization has been doing so for the past 2-1/2 decades.  In theory, we’re better at doing so than the Mets (or at least more purposeful about it).  Still, it’s difficult to gauge whether any particular pitcher will develop into a dominant starter.  The good news is that Atlanta has plenty of players in the mix to take a look at right now.

Harvey and deGrom were both drafted out of college – they are 26 and 25 years old, respectively.  Syndergaard is 23, coming from high school to the pros.  For the pitchers who can put it all together – control, pitch mixes, “stuff”, savvy, whatever – 3-4 years as a pro is not a bad metric.  Others can take a bit more time to blossom, but once you’re beyond 5-6 years post-draft (earlier for college kids), then you’re probably not going to be the Next Big Thing.  Injury seasons will add another year+, of course.

The Braves have coming…

The timing of those names at the top of the list suggest that these pitchers are close – within 1-2 seasons of showing us what they can really do.  And all of those names represent players who either are already in the majors or could be without a big stretch of reason.

Next: Looking toward the Goal

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