Atlanta Braves Top 100: Graduates and Schedule
Jun 15, 2015; Boston, MA, USA; Atlanta Braves starting pitcher
Williams Perez(61) throws the ball against the Boston Red Sox during the first inning at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Mark L. Baer-USA TODAY Sports
The Schedule
This week, we’ll start on a big project, something I’ve been spending a ton of time on, a top-100 prospects of the Atlanta Braves system.
Here’s the schedule for the week:
Today, 10am (this post!): Reviewing the graduates from the system in 2015
Today, 4pm: Numbers 81-100
Tuesday: Numbers 61-80
Wednesday: Numbers 41-60
Thursday: Numbers 21-40
Friday: Top 20
List Disclaimer
A few points about this list:
– I value guys who have moved permanently to the bullpen quite lightly, and their rankings will be significantly lower. You’ll notice this heavily on guys like Jason Hursh, Daniel Winkler, and Mauricio Cabrera along with guys who did not make the list like Matt Marksberry, Tyler Jones, and Shae Simmons. That is a bias, and I understand that, but it is already difficult for a major league reliever to provide significant value as it is, let alone a guy who’s already moved to the bullpen in the minor leagues.
– I spend a lot of time reviewing these players on video, but I have not seen these guys in person by and large. I have not seen every player on this list, and I did have to scout the stat line on some players, but I’ve utilized hounding many team scouts that I could find contact information for along with national guys that I’ve done some emailing with (I am attempting to get some interviews set up with the national prospect guys from Baseball Prospectus, Baseball America, Minor League Ball, and Fangraphs for you all over the offseason). In the end, however, this is my list, informed from those various sources, but the order set by me.
– My views are certainly not perfect, and I don’t expect you as the reader to 100% agree with my views. Heck, that’s a big point of these lists – discussion and debate. Please keep the discussion civil and open-minded!
Next: Wisler and Perez
Oct 4, 2015; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Braves starting pitcher
Matt Wisler(37) throws a pitch against the St. Louis Cardinals in the third inning at Turner Field. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports
Matt Wisler
, RHP, 23 years old (birthday 9/12/92)
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Stats (minors): 65 IP, 4.29 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 4.8% BB, 17.9% K
Stats (majors): 109 IP, 4.71 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 8.4% BB, 15.1% K
Wisler was acquired just before the season in the Craig Kimbrel trade. Wisler was a top-35 prospect in Baseball America’s list prior to 2015, and his quick movement had a lot to do with his excellent pitching ability. Wisler features a fastball that runs in the mid-90s, a sinker that sits in the low-90s, a changeup, slider, and a curveball. With his five pitch mix, Wisler relies heavily on location low in the zone with his pitches, and while he likely won’t ever have a 200-strikeout season, he should be efficient with a solid defense behind him in getting ground ball outs.
One of the things I noticed this year in his time in the big leagues was sequencing and how important it is for Wisler. His fastball does not have a ton of wiggle to it, and I noticed that the Braves early in his time up with the major league club called quite a few fastballs up in the zone or in the middle of the zone, and Wisler would miss up, leaving the ball in a perfect position to drive. After seeing a few of his starts in Gwinnett, I compared his pitching to that of Brandon Webb, and I still hold to that. Wisler will likely be the #3 starter in Atlanta’s rotation in 2016, and I could see him in that role for a long time to come.
Williams Perez
, RHP, 24 (5/21/91)
Stats (minors): 38 2/3 IP, 1.16 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 6.5% BB, 23.4% K
Stats (majors): 116 2/3 IP, 4.78 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, 9.9% BB, 14.2% K
In 2013, I started pushing Perez as a guy who could provide some big time value as a back-end rotation piece. He performed very well again at Mississippi in 2014, and he came out and did nothing short of dominate in 2015 in Gwinnett. He had his ups and downs with the major league club, but Perez is a guy who isn’t probably ever going to be an elite level starter or even a top-half of the rotation starter.
Perez had more issues with home runs than he had at any level of the minor leagues, allowing 13 in his time with Atlanta after a total of 13 between 2013 and 2014 in the minor leagues. Part of Perez’s issues were losing some touch on his nearly-untouchable change up. When he had feel for that change up, like the game I witnessed in Fenway Park, Perez has a very deceptive delivery that comes out just below 3/4 but not quite sidearm, and hitters struggle to square up the ball. He’ll likely have a spot at the back of the Atlanta Braves rotation in 2016.
Next: Cunniff and McKirahan
Apr 7, 2015; Miami, FL, USA; Atlanta Braves relief pitcher
Brandon Cunniff(50) throws during the during the sixth inning against the Miami Marlins at Marlins Park. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports
Brandon Cunniff
, RHP, 27 (10/7/88)
Stats (minors): 6 2/3 IP, 6.75 ERA, 2.55 WHIP, 23.5% BB, 17.6% K
Stats (majors): 35 IP, 4.63 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 14.6% BB, 24.5% K
Cunniff was signed out of independent ball in 2013, and he’s produced tremendous results ever since out of the bullpen. He won a spot on opening day with the Atlanta Braves bullpen, and the results weren’t quite as stellar as his previous two seasons in the system had been.
Cunniff has a four-pitch mix that is rare in the bullpen, with a mid-90s four-seam fastball, low-90s sinker, a slider, and a change up. He still racked up a very good strikeout rate with the Braves, but his walk rate was much higher than he’d showed at other levels, and specifically, he struggled to locate his fastball and slider. The slider is really key for Cunniff. The combination of sinker and slider for him keeps hitters looking low, and then he can throw a belt-high change or letter-high fastball and get strikeouts off of that.
He’ll get a shot at the 2016 bullpen, though with the arms returning from injury, he may be in more of a 6th inning role rather than his late-inning role he often found himself in during 2015.
Andrew McKirahan
, LHP, 25 (2/8/90)
Stats (minors): 6 1/3 IP, 2.84 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 13.8% BB, 27.6% K
Stats (majors): 27 1/3 IP, 5.93 ERA, 1.83 WHIP, 7.8% BB, 17.1% K
McKirahan was signed by the Braves after he was waived by the Marlins after being selected in the Rule 5 draft from the Chicago Cubs. The Texan lefty had only a half-season of experience at AA before 2015, and that inexperience certainly showed in his appearance. Due to his rule 5 status, the Braves had to keep him in the majors all season (outside of injury rehab time), but he showed some promise that could keep him in the plans for 2016.
McKirahan has a big fastball that can run in the mid- to upper-90s, but his breaking stuff could use some work. That said, he showed very solid success against lefties as a LOOGY type, but Fredi Gonzalez rarely used him in that role, as he pitched right around an inning per outing and actually faced more righties on the year than lefties. While he was unlucky against both sides, even a .346 BABIP could only produce a .690 OPS against for lefties on the season.
McKirahan could use some work on his offspeed stuff, and the Braves could send him down to start 2016 to work on this, but he could be an effective LOOGY right now in the Atlanta bullpen if used in that manner.
Next: Jace and Adonis
Sep 13, 2015; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Braves third baseman
Adonis Garcia(24) singles driving in a run against the New York Mets during the third inning at Turner Field. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
Jace Peterson
, 2B, 25 (5/9/90)
Stats: .239/.314/.335, 5 triples, 12 steals, 9.4% BB, 20.1% K
Peterson was acquired as part of the Justin Upton trade last winter, and many saw him as a future utility guy. In competition with highly-regarded prospect Jose Peraza, Jace won out with a tremendous spring training performance and elite level defense at times. Peterson had a solid season in the field, becoming a very solid double play partner with Andrelton Simmons, but as the season wore on, Peterson went through some hitting slumps, possibly due to playing more than he had at any level previously, playing nearly 40 more games and coming to the plate 75+ more times than any combined season he’d had in professional baseball.
On June 21, Peterson was hitting .284/.363/.389 before two very long slumps in the second half of the season dropped his numbers. That line as of June 21 along with solid defense would be easily playable at second base for a long time going forward. Instead, there are many fans already looking for the next best thing. I do think Peterson can utilize his elite speed better at the plate and on the base paths in 2016 and be a solid starter at 2B as long as the Braves need him to be.
Adonis Garcia
, 3B/OF, 30 (4/12/85)
Stats (minors): .284/.314/.369, 4.3% BB, 11.7% K
Stats (majors): .277/.293/.497, 10 HR, 2.5% BB, 17.7% K
Garcia was signed before the season with the brain trust that came to the Braves from the Yankees organization highly recommending him. He is only 5’9, but he is a stout 200ish pounds, and he packs a punch with the bat.
Garcia showed very well with the glove in Gwinnett, playing solid defense at third and left field. He even played some center field in 2014 for the Yankees’ AAA club, so he’s got some athleticism more than just a “big bopper” sort, but his low walk rate makes him not a very attractive option as a starter. Garcia also is best utilized in a platoon situation, as he hammers lefties but is middling against righties, though as a starter, he wouldn’t be terrible as his splits are .808 OPS against lefties in 2015 combined majors and minors and .689 OPS against righties. Garcia could be a platoon guy with Hector Olivera, getting starts at third base and left field in 2016 for the Braves.
Next: Folty and Bethancourt
Sep 9, 2015; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Atlanta Braves catcher
Christian Bethancourt(27) throws against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. The Braves won 8-1. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
Mike Foltynewicz
, RHP, 24 (10/7/91)
Stats (minors): 56 2/3 IP, 3.49 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 10.7% BB, 26% K
Stats (majors): 86 2/3 IP, 5.71 ERA, 1.63 WHIP, 7.3% BB, 19.3% K
Fans were excited to see the triple-digit velocity of Folty reach the majors after he was acquired in the offseason in the Evan Gattis trade. Folty has a fastball that can reach upper-90s and has been recorded up to 101, along with a power slider that the Braves helped him develop this season.
The issue with Folty has always been two-fold – first, control, and second, fastball wiggle. Folty’s slider was always a solid breaking pitch, but the adjustments the Braves had him make had the pitch nearly unhittable when he locates it. That’s just the issue. Whether the offspeed stuff or his blazing fastball, Folty has always had some struggle with over-throwing, and when he does that, his fastball straightens out, and he seems to have little idea where his change up and slider are headed.
I’ve always thought Folty had a better shot at value to the team as a reliever, but I’m not sure that the Braves are convinced of that yet. I’ve also wondered a number of times if he could be better served by making a split-change his third pitch if he was in the rotation instead of a traditional change up. 2016 will be an interesting season to watch with Folty as he fights for a rotation spot and, if he doesn’t win that spot, to see whether the Braves pull the trigger on moving him full-time to the bullpen.
Christian Bethancourt
, C, 24 (9/2/91)
Stats (minors): .327/.359/.480, 19 2B, 4 HR, 5.5% BB, 14.2% K
Stats (majors): .200/.225/.290, 3.1% BB, 20.6% K
The Braves handed the keys to the catching position to Bethancourt to start 2015, but their handling of his initial struggles set up what ended up a very odd season for Bethancourt. While he’s exhausted his rookie eligibility, his future with Atlanta is no more clear than it ever has been.
Bethancourt has absolutely elite natural talents behind the plate with exceptional athleticism behind the plate, incredible “pop” times (the time it takes to get up from a crouch to releasing the ball on a stolen base), and an incredibly elite arm. However, he lost playing time quickly, and it wasn’t just due to his poor performance at the plate. Bethancourt faced high ridicule (and warranted by anyone watching him) for his lackadaisical efforts behind the plate, leading to numerous passed balls and wild pitches along with pitchers flat out requesting not to work with Beth.
While he has the natural skills at an incredible level, his counterpart in 2015 at catcher for the Braves, A.J. Pierzynski, was the perfect guy for Bethancourt to work with as Pierzynski has average tools at best as a catcher, but you’ll be hard-pressed to find a harder working catcher in the league, which is why Pierzynski is still in demand into his late-30s. Bethancourt has always hit better in his second trip through a level, as evidenced by his performance once demoted to AAA, but right now, the biggest worry for Bethancourt has little to do with his hitting.