Reflections on the Promotion of Atlanta Braves’ GM John Coppolella
Jul 8, 2015; Chicago, IL, USA; St. Louis Cardinals outfielder Jason Heyward reacts against the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
After that Draft Thing
This requires a slight departure from the main topic. Just how did those drafts turn out?
The last draft the Schuerholz presided over as GM was in 2007 (with Wren as AGM). For the record, note that the Braves were 79-83 in 2006, so they picked 14th that season. Nonetheless, here’s what they got:
[table id=31 /]
It should be noted that while you can pin a star on that 2007 draft, 2006 was horrible. The only name of note coming from that group was one Kris Medlen… in the 10th round. 2005‘s draft was okay, but not terribly spectacular (Beau Jones was the #1 pick – Yunel Escobar has been the best performer).
Now contrast that with Frank Wren’s first draft in 2008 (an 84-78 year put him in the 17th position – originally):
[table id=32 /]
First off, note the absence of a #1 pick (that was for signing free agent Tom Glavine). Craig Kimbrel was the obvious prize of this group, though if you go a little deeper in the rounds, Paul Clemens, Brett Oberholtzer, and J.J. Hoover all have seen time in the majors (albeit with other clubs). But that illustrates part of the problem: signing top free agents can cost you draft picks – and trades to fill holes can cost you future major league talent.
In 2009, Mike Minor and David Hale – both collegians – were the top 2 picks. These were in an effort to “push” the draft system to get players to the majors more quickly. That had mixed results, as you could guess.
2010: Matt Lipka was the #1 pick. He’s still in AA. The rest of that draft was actually pretty good: Todd Cunningham, Philip Gosselin, Joey Terdoslavich, Chasen Shreve, Brandon Drury, and some college kid named Andrelton Simmons were all in there. Nonetheless, only 1 – Simmons – is a true everyday major leaguer 5 years later.
2011: Sean Gilmartin, Nick Ahmed, Kyle Kubitza, J.R. Graham, Cody Martin, Tommy La Stella. Gus Schlosser, Greg Ross, John Cornely… it’s hard to call these “bad drafts”, but most of the players I’m listing have either been traded away or haven’t truly broken through to be significant contributors in the majors.
2012: Lucas Sims and Alex Wood were the headliners. 2013: 15th rounder Matt Marksberry could end up being the best of the entire class.
Doing the Math
On average, a team needs to produce a solid major league contributor roughly at the rate of 3 times per year. This (very) rough math is based on a 25-man roster and an 8 year career timeline. Your mileage may vary on that math (I could certainly understand someone thinking “4 or 5 players per year”, for instance, but that depends on your definitions).
Either way, that math wasn’t working out, and the Sporting News, in a review of draft grades over the past 10 years, seems to agree. The Braves have been down to something closer to producing 1 bona fide major league player per year.
In addition to the draft picks, the Braves indeed have received help in the form of international players under Wren such as Julio Teheran and Williams Perez, but the international market never seemed to be a primary emphasis, short of significant efforts in Curacao. Even under Schuerholz, that wasn’t a big performance booster, save for Andruw Jones or Martin Prado. Up to this point, there certainly has been no “stream” of premium Caribbean talent coming to Atlanta.
Were these weak draft pools? Were the Braves a victim of draft position? Were the scouts missing talent? Did the scouts lack resources? It’s extremely difficult to say – probably some combination of the above. The results seem to suggest that between slow player development and lack of stand-out stars, the draft at least made it more difficult for Frank Wren to fill out his major league clubs. As a result, higher-risk decisions needed to be made. Again, this hits on points that Gandy made.
It could be that having more money for the scouting department might have helped. It could be that if 3-4 players obtained in the 2008-2012 time frame had truly “hit”, then Wren’s plans would have been validated and he’d still be the GM. But they didn’t and we are where we are.
Next: The Elephant in the Room