Atlanta Braves Morning Chop and Box; 2016 Draft Peek
Sep 30, 2015; Cincinnati, OH, USA; Cincinnati Reds second baseman Brandon Phillips kneels on the field in the ninth inning during a game with the Chicago Cubs at Great American Ball Park. The Cubs won 10-3. Mandatory Credit: David Kohl-USA TODAY Sports
Looking Like #3 Draft Pick in 2016 for Atlanta
The Atlanta Braves are giving their fans a bit of a finish, winning with the kind of regularity that had us all briefly hopeful into the first week of July. That alone hasn’t changed the standings in the “race” for the first overall draft pick for next June, but the incredible swoon of the Cincinnati Reds certainly has.
It’s not their fault, really. The Reds did sell off one major asset in Johnny Cueto at the trade deadline; and recently, lead-off speed demon Billy Hamilton just had surgery. Add to that a schedule filled with contending teams from their own division and you end up with a loss streak that now stands at 12 games in a row.
The Pirates, still with something to finish (home field advantage for the Wild Card), host the Reds for this final weekend, so a 15 straight belly flop to end the year is certainly possible.
Atlanta is 1 single game ahead of Cincy in the standings, but for draft-pick purposes that gap is really 2 games since the tie-breaker would be owned in favor of the Reds for the higher pick. This is due to the Braves’ higher finish in 2014. Thus the Reds would have to finish 3-0 while the Braves go 0-3 to change that position – not gonna happen.
Likewise, the Phillies also own the tie-breaker vs. Atlanta (in fact, Atlanta loses the tie-breakers to everybody), so this is another 3-0/0-3 situation. The Phils host the Marlins this last weekend.
Looking in the other direction, the Oakland A’s and Colorado Rockies are both sitting at 66-93. Again, a 2-game gap with 3 to play means that the Braves would have to run the table while these clubs would have to hide under it for the standings to change.
So though the positions are technically still in play that could permit Atlanta to pick anywhere from 1st to 5th, it’s about a 99% likelihood that we’ll be picking from the 3rd slot come next June.
Who could the Braves get in that position?
It’s still way early yet, but Baseball America has pointed out that while the Class of 2016 appears to be very deep, there isn’t that showstopper #1 guy that teams would be happy to throw top money at.
At the top, it seems to be mostly pitchers: BA’s J.J. Cooper suggests Alec Hanson (Oklahoma RHP) and Florida LHP A.J. Puk. Georgia RHP Robert Tyler was also mentioned. While he also suggests that teams don’t like to take high schoolers at this level in the draft, Riley Pint (St. Thomas Acquinas, Lenexa, KS) might challenge that notion.
Way back in April, Kiley McDaniel of fangraphs.com likewise had Hansen, Pint, and Puk in 3 of his top-4 positions (in that order). He also adds Blake Rutherford, a HS Centerfielder from California. 6’3″/190 plus runner with an “elite” hitting tool and above-average raw power. He also likes Tyler a lot. McDaniel has 7 players in his “elite” group, adding Nick Banks (Texas A&M RF) and Austin Bergner (HS RHP from the Orlando area).
So unless there’s a sleeper out there – and at this level, that’s hardly the case anymore – then you can probably expect that Atlanta will end up drafting one of these 7 kids could next June.
My guess? Unless Rutherford really ‘wows’ the scouts, it will be one of the pitchers – likely Puk or Tyler.