Atlanta Braves 2015 Season Prediction Contest Update
Sep 20, 2015; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Braves first baseman Freddie Freeman (5) drives in a run with a hit against the Philadelphia Phillies during the first inning at Turner Field. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
About The Hitters in 2015
- H1: Freddie Freeman – total RBI plus Walks.
- Answer options: 180 or fewer; 181 or more.
Yikes. Between his injuries and the lack of offense around him, Freddie didn’t stand a chance: he’s currently sitting at 112 and therefore have no shot at approaching the 180-181 break point, so this one is being called for the ‘under’ figure… which worked out well for 51% of the entrants.
- H2: First day Melvin Upton Jr. starts a game for Atlanta in 2015
- Answer options: May 26 – before or after.
Nope – sure didn’t see that one coming. Clearly the answer is ‘after’ since May 26 wasn’t even possible. In the actual spirit of the question, though, the answer was June 10th… and that first start came against the Braves, oddly enough. 41% had this answer pegged.
In 76 games and 198 plate appearances, Mel has actually hit .250 with 1.4 fWAR (5 homers, .315 OBP, .737 OPS). His strikeouts are still high (27%), but you’ve gotta give him some credit for coming back a bit. But at this point, I still I’d take the trade that was made to send him to San Diego.
- H3: Number of Braves hitters with more than 100 strikeouts.
- Answer options: 2 or less; 3 or more
The jury is still out on this one… and it’s gonna be close.
Right now, the answer is 1: Jace Peterson with 114. Cameron Maybin (96) will probably get there as well. The question involves Freddie Freeman, who is now sitting at 91.
If Freddie stays on pace, he’ll get 48-49 more plate appearances over the remaining 12 games. He has a 20.0% strikeout rate… and that translates to about 9 more strikeouts. That would get him to exactly 100 and flip this answer.
As it turns out, though, this probably won’t decide the contest: each of the top 6 contestants had the same answer here: “3 or more”. So while they will be rooting for more strikeouts from Freeman (that sounded bad), it may not ultimately matter on who gets to take home the bobblehead at season’s end.
- H4: Number of Braves players with 13 or more home runs
- Answer options: 4 or fewer; 5 or more
As well as I nailed that last question, this one was not as good. At the moment, the answer is “2”: Freeman (16) and Maybin (10). Adonis Garcia is the only one with any shot at joining them (8).
In retrospect, the question wasn’t all that bad, but John Hart happened instead. Kelly Johnson has 14 homers now… just some of those (5) didn’t happen with the Braves. Juan Uribe likewise (14/7). So there’s 4 players that could have counted… but won’t.
When I wrote this, I was thinking that “10” could be a magic number for multiple players…. but those players were Nick Markakis (2), Andrelton Simmons (3), and Melvin Upton (5… for San Diego). Funny things happen, but this one is effectively done, and 78% will get it correct.
- H5: Number of Braves qualified hitters batting above .275
- Answer options: 4 or fewer; 5 or more
This surprised me, but 68% weren’t drinking my cool-aid regardless.
The Braves only have 4 qualifiers right now (3.1 plate appearances per game), though Freddie Freeman may qualify by season’s end… which will probably make the answer “2” (he and Nick Markakis). Barring an historic binge from Maybin or Simmons (both now in the low .260’s), nobody else will be that close (A.J. Pierzynski will be short on PA’s by around 70-80).
I had figured Freeman and Markakis for locks, but that Simmons would join them and perhaps a couple of others might make it interesting… particularly with the Kevin Seitzer methods taking hold. That hasn’t happened at all.
Let’s wrap up with the Team questions…
Next: There is no 'Wrong Answer' in 'Team'... is there?