This Week in Fredi Gonzalez Think
Aug 12, 2015; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; Atlanta Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez (33) looks on during the first inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
Adonis Garcia started the week as the guy Fredi Gonzalez had to have in the lineup and ended jerked out of the game for a base running blunder. Those two incidents highlight Fredi Gonzalez scramble for victories while seeking to show he’s a good manager worthy of keeping his post in 2016.
A Quick look back
The Braves traded Alex Wood – amongst others – for Olivera to play third base and be a power bat behind Freddie Freeman next year. Injury kept Olivera out of the majors until September call-ups so when he arrived it seemed logical that he would get most of the playing time at third base; he hasn’t
On Tuesday the Braves opened a three game set with the Blue Jays. The Jays started lefty Mark Buehrle whose fastball tops out about 89 and recent results haven’t been great. After resting Olivera on Sunday the first Jays game appeared a perfect opportunity to get Olivera some at bats against a good but not overpowering pitcher with major league stuff.
Instead Gonzalez left Olivera on the bench in favor of Garcia telling Mark Bowman that while he understood the organization’s plans he didn’t feel obligated to play him.
“I want to see [Olivera] as much as I want to see him, but I also want to put the best lineup out there to give me a chance to win ballgames,” Gonzalez said.
I’ve parsed the first part of that quote “I want to see [Olivera] as much as I want to see him…” but I still have no idea what he meant.
Gonzalez laid out his rationale to Bowman on Tuesday.
“When you win and produce, you get a chance to play, but I do want to get a chance to see [Olivera] play,” Gonzalez said. “So, that is the hardest thing coming in every day. And what do you tell Garcia? Do you tell Garcia he’s not part of the future? The guy has 150 at-bats and eight home runs. He’s as hot as a firecracker.”
Gonzalez added to his rationale for the Tuesday lineup in an interview with David O’Brien
“. . . “Swisher’s got good numbers against Buerhle, so I’m trying to get as many good bats in there as I can to try to win a ballgame.”
It’s true that Nick Swisher historically owned Buehrle but that dominance is a few years old, since 2010 Swisher is one for eight (.125) – a double in 2013 – and on the day went hitless in with a strikeout in three PA against Buehrle.
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 9/19/2015.
Admittedly his performance on the day is hindsight but Swisher’s numbers were available to Gonzalez and his staff before the game. Gonzalez decided to play Swisher based instead of Olivera based on obsolete data at best.
Gonzalez went onto justify his lineup saying that it provided the better matchups.
“We sit and talk about it with the coaching staff, and I think the matchup with that particular day’s pitcher plays a part,” Gonzalez said. “You want [Olivera] to play and to have some success. You don’t want him to get buried.”
I could buy that argument when facing David Price whose high velocity heater and nasty breaking pitches could give a guy still essentially in spring training mode a hard time. Skipping Buehrle who tops out at about 90 on a good day and who struggled in recent appearances they playing him against Marco Estrada who approximates a younger right handed version of Buehrle made no sense.
Someone ask O’Brien on Twitter whether Gonzalez was playing some kind of platoon split match up. Nope.
It's not a straight platoon. Fredi liked matchups of some vs Buehrle, Price, and Garcia has raked vs LHs https://t.co/3Yr6a4Hppv
— David O'Brien (@DOBrienATL) September 17, 2015
So on Tuesday and Wednesday he started Garcia because he liked him better than Olivera and is frantic to win games. On Thursday he started Olivera because – presumably – Garcia doesn’t hit righties well and last night he started Garcia in left because Swisher fouled a ball off his foot Thursday and has trouble walking. Starting Garcia in left makes tons of sense and is easily explained because folks, Garcia is an outfielder.
Sep 15, 2015; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Braves third baseman Adonis Garcia (24) hits a single against the Toronto Blue Jays in the ninth inning at Turner Field. The Braves defeated the Blue Jays 3-2. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports
Horses for courses
I know that’s a shock to some but since arriving from Cuba he played one game at second (AAA 2013) and 19 at third (AAA 2104) before joining the Braves this year. At Gwinnett he made 65 starts at third base mostly because of his bat and the fact that they had no better defensive option.
We don’t have advanced metrics for Cuban ball or minor league ball here. Fielding percentage is the only thing we have available and it paints a picture of a guy that need to play the outfield.
(Statistics courtesy Baseball-Reference.com)
In 2011 Sean Smith wrote a piece for The Hardball Times comparing minor league fielding to major league projection using total zone defense. He found that TZ performance correlated better for infielders than outfielders.
I’ve found that you can usually get a correlation of 0.50, meaning you regress 50 percent to the mean, at about 350 chances for infielders. This represents less than a full season of chances for second, third and short. . . .For infielders, players perform worse, relative to the league, as they move up in levels. In other words, major league third basemen are better fielders than Triple-A third basemen, who are in turn better than players in the lower minors.
In four seasons prior to 2009 he played some second base in Cuba as well but posted just a .974 fielding percentage there too. At 30 years old and having played some level of professional ball since 2005 it’s highly unlikely that Garcia will improve at third.
This year for Atlanta Garcia’s made some spectacular plays at third; he’s also made some really bad errors on simple plays. According to Fangraphs none of the defensive metrics like him as a third baseman.
- DRS -4
- UZR -1.2
- UZR/150 -5.5
- Fielding % .902
They do however indicate he has value at the plate.
Although his slash is .275/.285/.448/.772 his wOBA is a more respectable .328 and his 107 RC+ ranks him second among current Braves with 150PA. This guy who needs to be in the outfield when he plays so Friday’s lineup was fine. He had Garcia’s bat and his childhood buddy Olivera at third, then Garcia had a mental hiccup.
Sep 9, 2015; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Atlanta Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez (33) in a game against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. The Braves won 8-1. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
Base running blunders
Last night the Braves got off to a good start with Williams Perez pitching a scoreless first. In the bottom half Nick Markakis singled and with two out Garcia doubled off the wall to score Markakis but was caught enjoying the moment off second and tagged out.
Attempting to avoid the tag Garcia made a lunging stride back to second and afterwards doubled over in apparent pain. The game was held up a bit while the replay guru’s in New York decided Garcia was out. When that was finalized Garcia took his glove and headed to left field.
As he was taking his warm up tosses in the outfield Michael Bourn came out to replace him. Garcia left perplexed while fans and broadcaster wondered whether he was injured. Later we found out he was pulled because of the mental lapse at second.
Fredi confirmed he pulled Garcia for the baserunning blunder
— Mark Bowman (@mlbbowman) September 19, 2015
Ask about the incident after the game Gonzalez told O’Brien (paraphrasing here) that he wouldn’t stand for mental mistakes like that.
“We’re 150 games below .500 and there are some times where you can live with physical mistakes and you can live with some mental mistakes,” Gonzalez said, “but sometimes there’s mistakes that, we don’t want to play those games here at the big-league level. The young man will learn from that. He’ll be back in there whenever he gets back in there.
“It just didn’t sit well with me, and I don’t think it sits well with our fans, especially with the season that’s going on right now.”
Okay I can understand that – most of it anyway – if that had been his position all season long or even for the rest of the game. . . but it hasn’t been and wasn’t.
In the third inning Christian Bethancourt double to start the inning. With Williams Perez batting Bethancourt wandered too far off second and was picked off – thrown out at third attempting to steal when he couldn’t get back to second.
That mental lapse was arguably more egregious than Garcia’s because Betti was leading off and inning but he remained in the game. Maybe he was allowed to remain because he was the catcher. Maybe it was because A.J. Pierzynski showed signs of a gimpy back the night before and he didn’t want to insert Ryan Lavarnway; we don’t know because I presume no one asked. If however I were Adonis Garcia I’d be a little confused.
Aug 15, 2015; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez (33) looks on from the dugout prior to the game against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Turner Field. Mandatory Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports
He’s not lost just bewildered
The worse the slide gets the more befuddled the Skipper looks. Clearly he wants to win and there’s no faulting that but his decisions under pressure are getting harder to understand. Fifteen years ago he could have simply used the matchup cliché and fans would have accepted it. Today however fans have access to most of the data that he has and under such scrutiny that dog won’t hunt.
His confusing and frankly inane comments serve only to make things worse.
In Gonzalez statement to Bowman he appears to be saying that only players who win and produce play and implies that Olivera hasn’t. That he isn’t hitting 300 should not be a shock as Olivera is effectively in spring training right now. Saying for the record that he won’t play until he does makes no sense when he is your future third baseman – ask your boss.
He goes on to bemoan how hard it is everyday to make those decisions. That’s the job Fredi, you should know that by now. After managing this long saying it’s hard isn’t an answer its an excuse and one that a real manager doesn’t make.
Further insight into his current thinking from the Bowman piece goes like this.
“I don’t want to go in there and say, ‘We’re playing for 2016.’ I’m not going to do that. I come in every day and try to put the best lineup together to win a ballgame.”
No he shouldn’t say it out loud but he should understand that’s learning more about the players who will be part of the team next year is in best interests of the team.
Omitting Olivera in favor of Garcia does nothing to help planners decide on needs for next year and flies in the face of the goals of the front office. No one would have assumed he was tanking on this season had he played Olivera but everyone wondered why he did not.
At 30 years old Garcia is a young man compared to Fredi but he isn’t a kid whose attention you have to get in order to make a point. Embarrassing him in front of his teammates and in the press served no real purpose and the only thing Garcia learned was that Fredi has different rules for different people.
That’s A Wrap
Dredi Gonzalez is drowning in in the pressure of managing a losing team with a history of winning. At his best Fredi is an average communicator who often speaks before he thinks things through. Lately he’s less effective than ever before as evidenced by his post game quotes and interviews that get more Yogi Berra like by the day except they’re nowhere near as insightful or entertaining.
- “I want to see [Olivera] as much as I want to see him. . .” Huh?
- “We’re 150 games below .500 …” no we aren’t. We’re 23 games below .500 after playing 148 games.
- “…but sometimes there’s mistakes that, we don’t want to play those games here at the big-league level…” Uh-Okay, what games do we want to play at the big league level
Managing a losing team is not a job anyone wants because in many ways it’s harder than managing a champion. Handling the pressure of a team destined to finish at or near the bottom of the league while wondering if you have a job next year weighs on your mind. We;re seeing that manifested every game as this season comes to a close. We can only hope that we don’t see any more of it after October fourth.