The Rise and Falls of Fredi Gonzalez

Atlanta Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez (33) looks on pondering what he do. his options are limited and his choices always questioned. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

The David O’Brien interview of John Coppolella and subsequent piece by Ken Rosenthal bring into  question the future of Atlanta Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez as Braves manager. I’m firmly in the camp that says he must go; here’s why.

I said at the beginning of the season that I wouldn’t blame Gonzalez for a losing year. The roster then wasn’t good enough to win and it would get worse as the year went on. The need to change managers comes from a pattern of not delivering when the going gets tough.

How we got here

In the beginning I felt that having someone trained by Bobby Cox would be a good thing; studying under a Hall of Fame manager is a pretty good résumé bullet after all.  As the season wore on and other seasons of disappointment followed however it became obvious that studying under someone and actually learning from them is two different things.

When management finally decided a change was needed at the GM level it seemed reasonable that they would also change the manager but politics got in the way.

Bobby Cox and Gonzalez are as close as father and son. Gonzalez coached third for Cox before leaving to manager the Marlins and Cox recommended Gonzalez when he retired. That in itself was odd as Frank Wren and Cox were never on the same page about the direction of the team. In any event when Terry McGuirk ask John Schuerholz to get the team back on track his first call was to Cox.  At their press conference Cox expressed his open support for Gonzalez even though word leaked later that new President of Baseball Operations John Hart was not convinced. In the end Gonzalez stayed as a concession to Cox.

Don’t look behind the curtain

In spite of Gonzalez shortcomings and assisted by a the stumbling Mets, aging Phillies, chaotic Marlins and inexplicably inept Nationals, the Braves managed to have winning seasons However they always failed in the last lap as highlighted by the September collapse of 2012 and last year’s fade after the All Star break.

There were excuses for the collapses of course – injury to Brian McCann, Dan Uggla’s unexpected fall off the cliff as a hitter, bad choices for roaster additions but our GM at the time – and while those things affected the result questions arose about Gonzalez handling of the lineup, bullpen and inevitably the clubhouse but they were simply the most obvious signs of an annual occurrence.

The Dog Days

The dog days of a season begin in August when the weather heats up and wear and tear starts to show on the players. It’s understandable that the people who take the field everyday will wear down at this point but why would a manager?

Within a specified range and barring serious injuries to multiple players, team with a stable roster have their ups and downs but should perform fairly evenly throughout the season.  When a team starts to flag it’s the managers job to give them the rest they need and keep them focused on the task at hand. Herewith an example – well two actually where I’ve outlined the norm for the seasons. Not that for these charts I added the March game to the April numbers and the October game to the September numbers for all teams.

From 2011 through 2014 the Padres were not a good team. Their roster was a patchwork or players that were either past their prime or not yet ready. They had some good pitching but no great pitching. Here’s what their seasons looked like over that period.

The Pirates were a bad team in 2011 and a team in transition in 2012. From that point forward their talent  level improved and so did their winning percentage.

Then there’s the Braves.

Looking at the charts you can see that the collapses aren’t outliers,  just the ones bad enough to grab the headlines.

Aug 30, 2015; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez (33) reacts in the dugout against the New York Yankees during the ninth inning at Turner Field. The Yankees defeated the Braves 20-6. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

A Manager’s job

Part of a manager’s job is to get the team back on track when they slump. Looking at those charts again you can see that when the other two teams slumped they rebounded, that trait hasn’t been in evidence for the Braves.  Please don’t ask me what he’s supposed to do, I do not claim to know how to manage a baseball team from day to day. What I do  know is that the best managers figure it out and Gonzalez hasn’t.

September hates Gonzalez and August doesn’t like him much either.

In the first four years since Gonzalez took charge the Braves have generally played well up to the All Star break and the except for last year, up to the first of August.  August’s been sort of a mixed bag of good and so-so but September – and October when we got there- reflect an unreported but pretty predictable trend; the Braves are bad. I added this year to the graph just to show it hasn’t stopped.

From Bad to Unwatchable

The Braves finished the first half of this season with a 500 record 42-42. They achieved that because many of the players performed either better than ever before or in the case of A.J. Pierzynski better than he had in a while. Taking a macro view the 500 record looked good but looking closer we can see that the Braves have really had one good month. . .and it wasn’t that good.

In May the Braves swept a rudderless Marlins team that lost 19 games and took two of three from the Reds who lost 14; while they broke 500 the opposition wasn’t exactly stiff.  The story post All Star break is sad and well known. The Braves finally managed to win two of three from the Phillies but from here forward results could be painful.