Atlanta Braves Late-Season Prospect Reports: New News

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To this point in our review of top Braves minor league prospects, we’ve looked at…

• The Top 7
• Ranks 8-14
• Ranks 15-20

It’s my own fault, but now that these reports have lingered, I’ve had to rename the title as ‘Late Season’ rather than ‘Mid-Season’.  Nonetheless, this report is a special edition:  with the myriad of changes to the organization this year, our original Top 20 list just was not able to keep up.

As a result, we’ve formed this supplemental list – in no particular order – to go over a few names of players that you may or may not already know… but will undoubtedly hear about in the coming months and years.

So with that introduction, let’s finish our review of the Braves Farm Best for 2015 – and hopefully there will be some optimism to help us all get past the “weekend that wasn’t” for the major league club.

[Ben Chase provided the write-ups on all of these aside from the updates on the next slide and others as noted]

Next: Two Quick Updates

Aug. 14, 2015. Mississippi Braves pitcher Lucas Sims, with fellow pitcher Greg Ross, during a game at Hank Aaron Stadium in Mobile, AL.  Photo credit:  Alan Carpenter, TomahawkTake.com

Two Updates

Earlier, we checked in on Lucas Sims and Rio Ruiz, both now with AA Mississippi.  Our previous reports were down on both of these players (Sims, Ruiz), but there’s been enough of a change in the last month to update these reports briefly… or at the very least, you might have seen some news of recent performance upticks that warrant some commentary.

More from Tomahawk Take

• Braves News: Atlanta makes a pair of trades, prospect debuts, more
• Atlanta Braves History: How the Red Stockings became the Braves
• Braves News: Atlanta Braves acquire Eli White from the Texas Rangers
• Atlanta Braves Swing Trade with the New York Yankees for Lucas Luetge
• Atlanta Braves 2012 Top Prospects Review: Zeke Spruill

LUCAS SIMS. Sims now has 8 starts under his AA-sized belt (40.2 innings).  The outcomes have been good – 3.54 ERA and a 4-2 record with decreased HR’s allowed.  However, there’s still ample reasons to continue to question the notion that he’s suddenly ‘got it’ after a poor run at Carolina.

It’s all about his walk rate. Already bad at 5+ per 9 innings at High-A, it’s actually gotten worse at Mississippi (6.2).  Yes, his K-rate has increased (8.3 to 10.8), but he’s also managing to get himself in and out of trouble often (72% LOB rate) and he’s been helped by an opponents’ BABIP that is significantly lower than what he experienced in Zebulon (.325 down to .266).

Sims’ WHIP is actually better (1.55 to 1.33) along with his opponents’ hitting (.181 to .255).  This indicates that he’s getting more movement on his pitches, which would also account for poorer contact (that lower BABIP).

But until he can control that movement by getting the walk rate reduced… something under 4.0… then we’ll not be convinced.  However, there seem to be improvements here, and thanks to the bus crash, he’s kinda had time to rest and reset in the middle of this season.

2016 will be an important year for Sims to see if he can build on this recent success and develop consistent control.

Aug. 14, 2015. Mississippi Braves 3rd baseman Rio Ruiz warming up prior to a game at Hank Aaron Stadium in Mobile, AL.

RIO RUIZ.  Ruiz was hitting .218 when we wrote “It will be up to him to determine how far he can go” seeing that he’s now blocked from the majors thanks to Hector Olivera.  While I had expressed some defensive concerns, this has mostly been about hitting, since he bottomed out at .207 on July 26th.

In just thirteen games since that last writeup, he’s raised his average to .238. When this writer saw him play, he was actually hitting .216 prior to lacing a double late in that blowout loss, so it seems that was the start of a mini-breakout.

Starting on that August 14th game, Ruiz began a hitting streak that continues today:  16 straight. Notably, much of that streak appears to be ‘Dan Uggla-like’, with a bunch of 1-for-4’s, but when you’re hitting in the low .200’s, everything counts.  Overall, it’s 21 for his last 58 – a .362 clip.  Among those hits are 7 doubles, a triple, and 2 homers (both streak extenders), though while Ruiz is hitting more, he’s also walking less during the streak (5 walks; slight uptick in K’s).  Notably, he also had 3 RBI in games last Friday and Saturday to support his teammates.

Nonetheless, it does appear that Ruiz is trying to be more aggressive at the plate as his season winds down – and that’s working for him. If he can gain a bit of mobility around third base, then he’s got a shot at fulfilling the promise that man him on of our pre-season Top 10 prospects.

Next: New in the Rotation

Mississippi Braves pitching coach Dennis Lewallyn. Photo credit: Alan Carpenter, TomahawkTake.com

Steve Janas

The Good:

The stats, man, the stats. Janas started out with some incredible numbers this year. He was a 6th round pick of the Braves in 2013, and that’s usually the round where you draft a college pitcher who will be good organization filler for your minor league system for a while, not a guy who goes out and puts up a sub-0.50 ERA in high-A! Janas was promoted to AA Mississippi, and while his two starts don’t look very good on the surface, he’s also been the victim of a .361 BABIP and 53% strand rate thus far, leaving him with a FIP of 2.72, which is basically the same as his 2.53 FIP in Carolina. Janas has done a tremendous job keeping the ball in the zone this year, walking less than a batter per nine innings.

The Not So Good:

Janas really doesn’t have a single standout pitch with a fastball in the upper 80s that will flash 91 or 92, a changeup that he has a very good feel for, and a slider that’s a tick above average. He has to have the superior command that he’s shown this year to even have a chance. Without that premium stuff, Janas is not exactly a guy who strikes out a ton of batters. In his early appearances, he K’d 13.6% in AA in two starts, and a per-9 rate between 5.5 and 6.0 would be expected.

The Stats:

• A+:  37 innings, 5.84 K/9, 0.97 BB/9, 0.49 ERA, 2.45 FIP, .178 BABIP, .144 BAA
• AA:  60 innings, 4.50 K/9, 2.55 BB/9, 4.65 ERA, 3.66 FIP, .340 BABIP, .300 BAA
• Was 2 outs short of a perfect game in May vs. Lynchburg.

TRENDING:

A lot of the things I saw in Williams Perez in 2013 I see in Steve Janas. He’s making what should be average stuff work by keeping it in the zone and letting his defense help him. His frame suggests there could be more velocity there, but it’s not really ticked up a lot since his draft year, so it’s doubtful you’ll pick up more than a MPH or two. Janas is the type of guy, like Perez, who could ride solid, albeit not flashy, pitching all the way to the majors or he could turn into org filler at the upper levels. It will be interesting to see how 2016 goes for him.

Next: Need a Shortstop? We Got Lots of Them

Aug 4, 2015; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Braves shortstop Daniel Castro (11) turns a double play against the San Francisco Giants in the ninth inning at Turner Field. The Giants defeated the Braves 8-3. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

Daniel Castro

The Good:

Castro’s above average contact tool and incredible glove carried him up two levels of the minors and even to a brief major league appearance this year. He’s done very well in more than just making contact as well, as he’s had some of the highest walk rate and lowest strikeout rates of his career. Not only has his glove been stellar at shortstop, but he’s shown flexibility this season to play third base and second base.  And he’s still not yet 23 years old.

The Not So Good:

While it’s improved, Castro’s walk rate is sitting under 7% at AAA this year. He also was the beneficiary of a .422 BABIP in AA that drove his high batting average at that level. A more normal .308 BABIP has led to a .284 average in AAA. He’s also got no power to speak of, hitting a total of 10 extra base hits this year, all doubles.

The Stats:

• AA:  .23 games, .389/.411/.444/.855, 145 wRC+, 4% BB, 8% K.
• AAA: 88 games, .271/.317/.301/.618, 80 wRC+, 6.5% BB, 9.4% K
• Majors:  11 games, .300/.323/.333/.656, 82 wRC+, 3% BB, 10% K (31 plate apps)

TRENDING:

Castro was among a number of talented glove shortstops between Jose Peraza and Ozzie Albies, and to stick out, he needed to do what he did this year, hitting like crazy in AA and showing flexibility with his glove.  Obviously, he’s not going to be the SS starter for Atlanta, but he has likely bought himself a long line of patience to be a good-hitting utility infielder off the bench for Atlanta in the same vein as predecessors Julio Lugo, Paul Janish, or Ramiro Pena.

Next: Suspiciously Strong Stats

Chris O’Dowd

The Good:

O’Dowd started the season on fire, hitting the ball all over the ball park through about mid-May. He did hit the wall that most expected, but his numbers were still very good, and even during his hitting slump, he continued to sport very solid walk and strikeout rates.

The Not So Good:

We’ll start with the on-the-field. O’Dowd was not just bad behind the plate, he was putrid. He was tried in left field, but the best position for him was DH. He’s going to likely return to Mississippi, but he’s now 24, and he needed that bump up to AAA by the end of the season to avoid the “old prospect” label. Instead, he ended up receiving a PED suspension (June 10) that will certainly put into question his performance on the field in 2015 and how real that performance was.  One notable bit was that once the organization brought in ‘real’ catchers, the pitching staff improved… almost overnight.

The Stats:

• AA:  in 26 games:  .304/.429/.468/.897

TRENDING:

O’Dowd showed enough this year to know that there’s no future for him behind the plate. That means that his future will be either in left field or as trade bait for an American League team. Regardless, he’ll need to provide the offense he did in April/May and then some to be able to be a LF/DH type in the major leagues, and I’m not sure what he truly is as a hitter without the PEDs.

Taking all of this together, O’Dowd is looking a lot more ‘suspect’ than ‘prospect’.  It’s clearly his move now to prove otherwise.

Next: A College Gamer

Jul 4, 2015; Atlanta, GA, USA; A detailed view of Atlanta Braves 4th of July hat and a glove in the dugout against the Philadelphia Phillies in the second inning at Turner Field. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

Keith Curcio

The Good:

Florida Southern product and 2014 draftee Keith Curcio came out of the gate hitting the snot out of the ball in Rome, posting a .342/.416/.479 line before being promoted to Carolina. He has shown solid speed no matter his location this year, and his 33 walks to 37 strikeouts show his solid eye at the plate.

The Not So Good:

Since his bump up to Carolina, the 2014 6th round pick has hit .230/.302/.320 [written a month ago]. He’s not that poor, but he’s probably not as good as he was in Rome. His defense in center field has been very good, certainly worthy of staying at the position, but his speed on the basepaths just hasn’t translated all that well so far.

The Stats:

• Rome-A:  (32 games, 137 plate apps) .342/.416/.479/.895.  10% BB/9% K
• Carolina: (97 games, 409 plate apps) .231/.290/.323/.614.  7% BB/14.7% K
• At High-A Carolina:  4 homers, 19 steals

TRENDING:

Curcio has good gap power, but little over-the-fence power, so if his offense is going to play at higher levels, he’ll need to make better use of his above average speed. The defense is there to carry him to the majors as a center fielder, but I worry that he’ll end up like a similar player that has seemingly hit the AAA glass ceiling in Todd Cunningham.

Next: Strong New Arrival

Aug 14, 2015. Mississippi Braves pitcher Andrew Thurman warming up before his start at Hank Aaron Stadium, Mobile, AL. Photo credit: Alan Carpenter, TomahawkTake.com

Andrew Thurman

The Good:

Thurman was considered a “throw-in” in the Evan Gattis deal that also netted the Braves Mike Foltynewicz and Rio Ruiz. He’s come out this year, however, and shown that he’s a lot more than a throw in player. Thurman’s fastball has ticked up to a consistent low-90s fastball along with his very solid secondary offerings. He’s walked a scant 5.2% of batters in A+ while striking out nearly 17% of hitters. Thurman pitches to contact with his stuff, but his tick up in velocity has allowed him to put away batters as well.

The Not So Good:

Thurman was the last injured Mudcat to return after the bus crash. He has pitched well at rookie ball in his rehab, but he’s still got to make his way back to Carolina. He’s 23, so there’s not a lot of time to have setbacks for Thurman, but he hasn’t shown any issues this year for sure.

[ Ed. note:  I saw Thurman’s first AA start.  Solid for 3 innings, but melted in the humidity of Mobile, and his control went away at the same time.  Stamina is an issue, and it’s tough to acclimate to the Southern League in August.  Expect that to be better for his last couple of appearances in 2015, and again in 2016.  Could ultimately be a decent relief option later next year. ]

The Stats:

• A+:  11 starts, 57 inns.  6.75 K/9, 1.73 BB/9.  3.77 ERA, 3.00 FIP, 1.19 WHIP
• AA:  4 starts, 20 inns.  4.58 K/9, 5.95 BB/9.  4.58 ERA, 4.26 FIP, 1.73 WHIP

TRENDING:

With his pitching that I’ve had a chance to see this year, I was reminded strongly of a right handed version of one of Tim Hudson‘s Athletics teammates, Mark Mulder. If he can reach that level of pitching, he could be a 2-3 in a good rotation, which is a heck of a third piece in a trade!

[ Ed. note – I am a bit less bullish.  As the other note suggested, I am rather thinking bullpen soon for him… he has excellent control, but not enough of a repertoire for a lengthy starting gig.  Could make a good option for a situational/fireman bullpen arm.  I’ll still give him a cautionary Up-arrow. ]

Next: Newly Purchased from Arizona

Jul 21, 2015; Atlanta, GA, USA; A baseball, baseball glove and baseballs are shown on the infield during batting practice before the game against the Atlanta Braves and the Los Angeles Dodgers at Turner Field. Mandatory Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports

Touki Toussaint

The Good:

Toussaint was acquired in season from the Diamondbacks, and immediately he becomes a top 5 Braves prospect. Touki is widely considered the top high school arm from the 2014 draft, and many have boldly stated he’s the best overall arm. He’s got a fastball that reaches triple digits along with a 12-6 curveball that will have you shouting four-letter words when you see it.

Those pitches alone put Toussaint’s floor as a very, very good reliever. Add in a pitch that makes hitters think about the fastball, and you’d have a brilliant starter, one of the best in the game. In the game I watched of Toussaint’s, one of his three since becoming a Brave, he had a changeup he threw that was below average. His arm motion, release point, and velocity makes me wonder if a cutter or split finger might not be the best route for him.

The Not So Good:

His stuff is electric, but he has streaks where he seems to lose the feel of the curveball, and when he doesn’t have that big breaker, his velocity doesn’t mean anything as anyone can hit a straight fastball.

The Stats:

• DBacks A:  7 starts, 39 innings, 3.69 ERA, 7 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 0.92 HR/9, 4.54 FIP, .252 BABIP, 1.18 WHIP.
• Braves  A: 10 starts, 49 innings, 5.73 ERA, 7 K/9, 6.1 BB/9,  1.11  HR/9, 5.74 FIP, .243 BABIP, 1.50 WHIP

TRENDING:

Toussaint just turned 19, so he’s got plenty of time to build in the third pitch he needs along with command of all three pitches to be an elite level starter. He will be very fun for Braves fans to watch in the upcoming years.

Next: Big Bats are Next

Aug 17, 2015; San Diego, CA, USA; A detailed view of the bats of San Diego Padres right fielder Matt Kemp (27) and left fielder Justin Upton (10) before the game against the Atlanta Braves at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

Austin Riley

[Alan Carpenter provided this write-up]

The Good:

Austin Riley was the 3rd draft selection named by the Braves in the 2015 draft, coming on the 41st pick in the Competitive Balance segment.  He’s from Desoto Central High in Southaven, Mississippi, and there was a question on draft day among some whether he was being taken as a pitcher or a hitter.

That question is answered:  he’s a hitter.

The 6’2″/230 18-year-old has been tearing up the rookie leagues already, hammering 12 homers in just 58 games.  He’s also hitting for average, with a .308 clip between GCL and Danville play… and it’s even better at Danville.  As of this moment, Riley appears to be the best power hitting prospect in the organization.

The Not So Good:

15 errors in those 58 games, mostly at third base.  That will clearly have to improve a bit, but a corner outfield spot is also a possibility down the road.  K rate is a bit high (25%), but it’s early for him.

The Stats:

• GCL:  30 games, 106 AB.  .255/.331/.500/.831.  7 HR, 21 RBI, 12 BB, 37 K
• Danville: 28 games, 105 AB.  .362/.443/.610/1.052, 5 HR, 18 RBI, 11 BB, 25 K
• Overall:  58 games, 211 AB.  .362/.387/.555/.941 OPS.  12 HR, 38 RBI, 14 2B, 1 3B, 23 BB (9%), 62 K (25%)

TRENDING:

Way, way up.  Danville has 2 games remaining on its schedule for 2015, but for sure, Riley will begin at Rome next season.

Next: Young International Hammer

Jun 26, 2015; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Atlanta Braves batting gloves and bats in the dugout before the Braves play the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park. The Pirates won 3-2 in ten innings. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Isranel Wilson

[Alan Carpenter provided this write-up]

The Good:

Early Power.  Wilson was signed after the Braves snagged some additional 2015 International Pool monies from the Cubs as part of the Tommy La Stella for Arodys Vizcaino trade.  He is from the U.S. Virgin Islands (raised on St. Thomas), but was actually born on St. Martin, which allowed the Braves to snag him.

Normally, a signee like this would be ushered to the Braves’ baseball academy in the Dominican Republic.  This is a very unusual situation to bring him almost directly into the GCL for their 60 game short-season.  He’s very raw, but this toolsy outfielder is already 6’3″/185 and is crushing baseballs.  In 48 GCL games, he hit 10 dingers, a triple, and 5 doubles.  Clearly, the scouts wanted to see how he’d handle the more advanced competition of recent – and often much older – draftees.  Answer?  Not so bad.

The Not So Good:

Plate discipline in general.  While he acceptable 26 walks (15%), he also K’d 56 times (33% – ouch).  Overall, he had a .222 batting average along with those 10 homers and 22 RBI… giving him an .828 OPS.

But as a reminder… he’s still 17 until next March.

The Stats:

• GCL:  48 games, 144 AB, .222/.349/.479/.828.  10 HR, 1 3B, 5 2B

TRENDING:

Trending is up, obviously.  I can’t guess yet whether he’ll be given a shot at Rome for a full season in 2016, but it’s possible.  If not, then he’ll have ample extended Spring workouts to prep for Danville starting late next June.

I admit I’m already wondering about the possibility of having Wilson and Austin Riley on the same club for a full year.  That would be fun for the citizens of Rome to see!

Next: The 2015 Top Pick

Aug 29, 2015; Atlanta, GA, USA; A general view as the sun sets during a game between the Atlanta Braves and the New York Yankees at Turner Field. Mandatory Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports

Kolby Allard

[Alan Carpenter provided this write-up]

It’s still very early yet on Kolby – his late signing meant limited action, but that action has impressed scouts that have seen him.

For his short season (it’s now over in the Gulf Coast League) Kolby threw just 6 innings of live baseball, spread between 1, 2, and 3 inning outings.  Here’s the tally:

• 1 hit
• 1 hit batsman
• 12 strikeouts (out of 18 possible outs)
• 0.17 WHIP, no runs.

Yes, there’s a Small Sample Size alert that goes with this, but that’s pretty darn hard to beat.

As Fred might say, that’s a wrap for now!  Lots of talent coming down the pipeline… and frankly, there’s just not nearly enough space to include everyone of note here.  Nonetheless, we’ll do our best (with Minor League Mondays/Thursdays and other special reports) to keep you up-to-date with what’s going on down on the farm.

As always, thanks very much for checking in with us!

Next: Checking Up: Minors Monday