Atlanta Braves Tyrell Jenkins To The DL

Feb 23, 2015; Lake Buena Vista, FL, USA; Atlanta Braves pitcher Tyrell Jenkins stretches during spring training workouts at Champion Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports

Not enough quality innings to be a starter?

Looking at the 10 pitchers who are his peers – first pitched in 2010 or 2011, currently 22 or 23 years old with at least 30 IP this year – provides some interesting food for thought. Here are his ranks among those pitchers this year and for total minor league innings and games.

You might think that losing that time to surgery gives him a reason for not having as many games and innings as the other nine players except that one of those players is Matt Wisler who missed time due to TJ Surgery. Here’s the complete list.

Prior to this DL stint Jenkins threw a total of 136 2/3 combined innings for Mississippi and Gwinnett, the first time he’s ever thrown more than 100 innings. That makes me wonder about his long term durability.

After surgery his 2013 post season consisted of building cores strength and making the shoulder strong again.  He came back to throw 98 innings – didn’t average 6 innings a game – but that was understandable as they were cautious with his newly repaired shoulder.  One would think that having had the surgery Jenkins would have continued to concentrate his training regimen on building strength in the previously damaged muscles  His innings total did increase by 30% and that was probably close to his maximum allowed anyway but if the shoulder is fatigued enough to warrant a DL stint will it ever be dependable? Even if he returns to 100% other numbers also raise red flags.

Where have all the strikeouts gone, long time ago. ..

In 2011 and 2012 Jenkins posted strikeout rates of 23.4% and 22.3% but in 2013 that dropped to 15.6%.  Part of that can be attributed to the injury but in 2014 it was 13.3% and this year it was 14.9% in AA and 15.3% at Gwinnett.  Throughout his minor league a career he’s had a walk rate hovering between 10% and 11%. The net effect is continuously plummeting K/BB rate and a WHIP consistently around1.400. So he’s a contact pitcher who doesn’t allow home runs and has a near 50% career ground ball rate; our defense can deal with the rest. Maybe so but his career FIP hovers right at 4.00 in the minors, what are the chances that goes down when he gets to the show?

Here is part of Baseball America’s pre-season scouting report (subscription required) on Jenkins.

"His fastball remains a plus pitch, and though he hasn’t shown consistent 96 mph velocity as he did pre-injury, he still sits at 92-93 with sinking and cutting life and hits 95 regularly. Shoulder problems have precluded Jenkins from ever pitching 100 innings . . . The lost development time has hampered Jenkins’ command, and he still struggles with his release point and the consistency of his secondary stuff. His upper-70s curveball has power and above-average potential, while his average changeup has its moments when he trusts it, but his over-reliance on his fastball leads to high contact rates and below-average strikeout totals.. . . Jenkins gives the Braves an athletic starter with upside to go with significant durability questions. . ."

Ah yes those questions without any answers beg a bigger question, who takes his place in line?

That’s a Wrap

I’m not trying to be a killjoy here, Jenkins is 22 years old and could well find a conditioning program to strengthen his shoulder. At 6’4” and 180 pounds he’s whip thin so perhaps he’ll bulk up a bit and that too could improve his durability.  He has velocity and movement but not the secondary pitches to keep good hitters off his fastball.

The original story suggested that they hope Jenkins would return before the end of the AAA season; I hope he doesn’t. I’d much rather he rest that fatigued shoulder then spend the winter working on conditioning and his secondary pitches. I’ve advocated keeping Folty in the rotation until he learns to control that heat and if Jenkins can gain enough strength and endurance while making at least one of those secondary pitches a plus pitch, I want the same for him.

Today however it looks like he’s at least a year away from Atlanta. Add that to the Manny Banuelos injury, the trade of Alex Wood and whispers about moving Julio Teheran – that I’m not particularly convinced have legs – and we can better understand the recent talk of offering Mike Minor a new contract instead of non-tendering him as everyone expected. The problem with attempting to bring Minor back at any kind of injury protected rate – say with incentives to reach 200 innings – is that Minor believes the Braves have always undervalued him so he’s not likely to be amicable to such a deal.

When Kris Medlen was offered a similar deal he chose free agency and landed a two year $8.5M deal with the Royals. Minor has to believe that as a lefty  with a history of pitching 200 innings and who’s shown the stuff to be a middle of the rotation or better arm he can do better. The Braves are committed to about $69M next season and I’ve believed for a while they were going to try to add an experienced starter next season.

I know David Price is a THE name but he’s get more years and dollars than the Braves will be willing to offer. It’s possible they would go after a guy like Jordan Zimmermann who is having a down year but is a better pitcher than that. They could also go after a guy like Sonny Gray who would cost three good prospects but is a genuine top of the rotation arm controlled through 2019.

Whatever they do I don’t expect to see Jenkins playing a significant part in Atlanta next year which is unfortunate, he’s a fine young man and I hope he turns it around quickly proving me wrong.

Next: Braves Bring Back Mike?