Atlanta Braves Thinking of Bringing Back Minor
Sep 14, 2014; Arlington, TX, USA; Atlanta Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez (33) pulls starting pitcher Mike Minor (36) during the game against the Texas Rangers at Globe Life Park in Arlington. The Rangers defeated the Braves 10-3. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
Why Indeed?
My knee-jerk reaction to this news was “there’s no way – they don’t need him; there isn’t even a spot for him.” Then I started thinking a bit further, and… well, maybe:
- There continue to be whispers about whether Julio Teheran will remain a Brave beyond this season. From multiple sources.
- Other than Manny Banuelos, Mike Minor is the only left-handed starting pitcher on the roster now that Alex Wood is a Dodger.
- The Braves may still try to go after a young catcher and/or a more bat-centric left fielder for next year. Pitching has been their “currency” for buying such players. Adding to that wallet would thus be part of the plan.
- Having Minor actively on the staff would help the youngsters coming up… and also allow the team to exercise options to move them back and forth to Gwinnett to refine their craft without having to get them beat up with on-the-job training in the majors.
- With the price of veteran pitching out there, Minor still comes off as ‘relatively inexpensive’ as opposed to a free agent acquisition or yet another ‘bad contract’ swap. And he’s still just 28 years old this Christmas.
- They know him and know what he can do.
Let’s count the noses, though. As of today, the Braves have…
- Julio Teheran – who could be dealt; scheduled to make $3.3m in 2016; quite reasonable contract through 2019.
- Mike Minor – arbitration year #3 coming up (of 4). Shoulder surgery recovery, which isn’t a slam dunk.
- Shelby Miller – arbitration year #1 coming up.
- Mike Foltynewicz – pre-arbitration
- Matt Wisler – pre-arbitration
- Manny Banuelos – pre-arbitration, still recovering from bone spur removal
- Williams Perez – pre-arbitration
That’s seven starters with some major league experience. In addition, there’s more waiting in the wings:
- Tyrell Jenkins. Some of us here are still wondering if he’s a long-term starter or reliever. More on that later today.
- Daniel Winkler. Probably a longshot for the rotation, but will be ready for 2016 to give it a go.
- Max Fried. About 2 months behind Winkler on the TJ recovery schedule. That might make it a little more difficult for him to participate in some off-season baseball, but we’ll see.
That’s a good list, but it honestly doesn’t have a ton of experience – especially if Teheran were to be dealt elsewhere. That’s where Minor could come in.
Cost Factors, Options
Well, here’s the rub. The Braves have a couple of options, but absent some game experience – which won’t happen in 2015 – they will be mostly shooting in the dark about Minor’s health (again). They can hope he’s healthy, but will have no real way to know for sure other than maybe watching a few bullpen sessions by late October.
Those options…
- 1. Tender Minor a contract and continue on the arbitration path. That will commit them to some unknown price for the 2016 season.
- 2. Non-tender him. That allows the Braves to approach Minor about a lower-cost deal of some ilk, but also makes him a free agent, allowing all teams to do likewise. It’s a competition, then. We lost Kris Medlen in this way.
- 3. Bite the bullet early. Approach Minor now (or at least soon) with a 2-year offer that could provide him some security while the Braves get a reasonable combo-year cost. That’s what happened with the last Jason Heyward contract.
Minor has the option to reject any overture from the Braves that doesn’t involved Option #1.
If Option 1 is chosen, then his salary range would be anywhere from about $4.5 million and up, though salary cuts – even after an injury year – are exceedingly rare, and thus an offer in the range of $5.6m-$6.0m is more realistic for 2016… which could still go to trial.
Option 2 is highly risky without a prior agreement, for it is very likely that another club would court Minor’s services and eventually sign him. If the Braves really want him back, this is not a winning strategy.
For Option 3, I could see a 2016-17 deal that might offer $6m for the first season and $7.5-8.0m for the next. It provides a modest increase for 2016 and protects both sides a bit for 2017, while acknowledging that Minor could very well be back to 2013 form at some point.
The Shoulder Thing
I still say it’s quite a bit of cash to have to spend for a player that’s had injury issues in the past. And as Fred Owens has written for us on multiple occasions, shoulders are tricky things. It’s a risk.
Does it make sense? Kinda. Will the Braves do it? Maybe.
But then I’ve been wrong about Mike Minor a lot.